Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Initially dipping overnight to 2851.00 didn't prevent recovering back up to Monday's 2881.00 high. And then to a new recovery high at 2913.50. The 2908.50 open trended back down to 2854.00 taking RSIs oversold. Exiting the bias environment under 2881.00 isolated the gap up. The bearish isolation didn't prevent bouncing back up to 2881.00 at the bias environment exit, but the balance of the session slid to 2852.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's late dip was already retracing from its probe of fresh lows. The reaction extended higher through midnight up to 2905.00, a proxy for yesterday's 2908.50 open. Eventually reacting down greeted Europe's opens at the 2884.25 bias-up target as support. It has been holding since then, but it's now being tested again. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The 2908.50 open's gap up above all prior highs requires being filled. It is the only "unfinished business" above, other than the potential for extending up to 2930.00-2934.00. Resistance and support will be likelier to hold ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events. Spending all night (so far) in positive territory doesn't preclude reversing down this morning to posture defensively. Friday's "unfinished business" at 2801.50 and 2777.00 would be likely attractions in case of negative sentiment from FOMC. Meanwhile, this morning is likely to be range bound, perhaps retracing gaps before reversing. Any stronger pre-FOMC trending will be suspicious. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2874.00 would be likely to trigger the 2866.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2890.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2884.25 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.

Fluctuating around yesterday's highs. Earlier overnight strength had reacted down to the 2884.25 bias-up target as support. GDP's miss and GILD's hit combined to launch another pair of surges up attacking 2927.00 pre-open. Rallying this morning above yesterday's highs had required their break through a relevant timing window. Testing them from above has helped to absorb the selling pressure. The open had dipped to yesterday's 2313.25 pre-open high, and quickly extended down post-open to 2902.25. Trending back up through the first hour just printed 2924.50. Anxiousness ahead of a FOMC afternoon usually inhibits trending beyond the range. But optimism is winning out, albeit still struggling a little. Back under 2913.00 would signal more backing-and-filling ahead of the news. Otherwise, potential remains alive for extending up to 2930.00-2934.00 into and/or out of FOMC.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2942.00 2934.00 ...would target 2958.50 2950.50 Bias-down: under 2925.75 2917.75 ...would target 2911.00 2903.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Greeting FOMC sunny-side up, up, and away. The open's choppy consolidation at or above yesterday's highs resolved up. A narrow channel controlled the slope, which accelerated upon entering the noon hour. That acceleration negotiated the 2930.00-2934.00 target area and resolved up, extending to 2944.50. This afternoon's 2934.00 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2950.50 bias-up target is in-play. But the bias environment so far has only retraced the bias-up signal, and touched a sell signal at 2933.00.

Triggering the sell signal wouldn't be very compelling just ahead of the very fast market conditions we'll see in reaction to the FOMC policy statement. Setups before the Q&A or during it are much more predictable.

No higher high has been produced since triggering bias-up. So, invalidating it would require only exiting the bias environment under its 2917.75 bias-down signal. Printing a fresh high before then would require invalidation to also reject the 2903.00 bias-down target. Now having probed the bear market rally's next higher 2930.00-2934.00 target area, closing back under it would suggest its resistance held. Closing above it would suggest a much bigger bounce is underway.

A modest overnight rally was supercharged by a GDP miss and GILD hit. Surging 45 points to attack 2927.00 was corrected through the open, then extended up to 2944.50 through the noon hour. Correcting again through the FOMC policy statement was recovered up to 2947.25 through Fed Chair Powell's Q&A. A last-minute reaction down closed the cash session 1 tick under the bear rally's next higher 2930.00-2934.00 target. The afternoon's 2959.50 bias-up target was left outstanding. Even before the last-minute drop, we were already discussing that strong-handed sellers were no involved. The drop was underway before coming to within 3 minutes of the top of the hour, qualifying its close under 2930.00-2934.00. Where closing any higher would have started to signal a much greater rally underway, now a close above Wednesday's 2947.25 is required. That's already being attempted, as the late pullback has been reversed back up through 2950.50 to attack 2960.00. Globex hasn't yet opened, so it's not a new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Not, yet. Just having exceeded the bear market rally's likeliest 2825.00-2827.00 target makes this test of the 2930.00-2934.00 room for noise quite a rubber band stretch. FOMC reactions are often retraced within 3 sessions, so not exploiting that potential reversal trigger would be bullish. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2951.00 2943.00 ...would target 2967.50 2959.50 Bias-down: under 2928.50 2920.50 ...would target 2916.00 2908.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.