Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Gapping down Sunday night soon extended lower to 2771.00. That included room for noise of the drop from Wednesday night's 2965.00 high to still qualify as only a pullback. But testing the room for noise overnight had required recovering Friday's lows through Monday's open. Instead, probing Friday's lows up to 2818.00 came too late to reverse momentum up. That didn't prevent ranging sideways into the final hour. The afternoon's bias-down signal left "unfinished business" at its 2788.00 bias-down target before rallying into positive territory up to 2836.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late surge was consolidated for a couple of hours and then broke higher again. The next higher objective at 2848.00-2849.00 was touched. Its consolidation began breaking higher soon after midnight and through Europe's opens, finally surging up to 2863.50-2865.00. Collapsing back down to yesterday's 2833.00 cash session close has recovered substantially, but not entirely, now testing and retesting 2858.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two resistance area were created by the intraday probe of fresh lows. Testing the first set at 2835.50-2836.50 defined Monday's late high. Ranging sideways through the cash session close keeps alive potential to the second set at 2848.00-2849.00. I noted yesterday that Monday's internals had largely diverged from the higher close, which reflects the narrow breadth of stocks leading the bounce. That wasn't a sell signal, but it does require a bullish scenario to extend higher immediately on broader internal strength. Gapping up doesn't yet qualify as  higher without delay, that's only an overnight rally -- so far. Internals must still strengthen intraday while the rally extends, or at least compare well to yesterday's while a post-open dip has room back down to 2835.50-2836.50. Closing above 2848.00-2849.00 would still signal the pullback was done, but also touching 2877.00, 2886.00, or 2891.00 would make it the new landmark. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2855.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2849.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2843.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2839.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2836.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Next higher target met. The 2863.00 open spiked up to 2871.50 within 3 minutes, and consolidated through the first 15 minutes of volatility. The hesitation wasn't in itself bullish, but neither was it bearish, and surging to fresh highs had put the burden of proof on sellers. Breaking higher attacked 2882.00 at the top of the hour. Its reaction down has touched 2870.50. More specifically, probing above the relevant 2877.00 level began after 9:45 and was retraced by 10:15. The test of 2877.00 was isolated, and either isolating its test or exceeding it is the predictive setup I described this morning. Isolating the 2877.00's test isn't in itself bearish, but it keeps the door (wider) open to reversing down. Similarly, keeping pullbacks brief and shallow keeps the door (narrowly) open to extending the recovery. The next such comparisons would be made at 2886.00 and possibly 2891.00. The biggest bearish line in the sand is currently at 2863.50. It would be raised upon testing 2886.00 or 2891.00. Meanwhile, the bullish scenario -- that last week's reversal down from 2965.00 is done -- would improve further just by testing each higher relevant level.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2899.75 2890.75 ...would target 2911.25 2902.25 Bias-down: under 2883.00 2874.00 ...would target 2869.00 2860.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

I'm away from the screens during the P.M. bias window (1:00-2:30 ET). Extending through 2877.00's test up to 2889.50 fulfilled the next higher objective at 2886.00. A close-quarters Double Top has reversed down to test its 2882.00 objective down to 2880.00. The rally can now resume. Back above 2884.75 would start to signal fresh highs likely to include 2890.75 and possibly 2895.25. Extending much higher too quickly might be difficult if the 2890.75 bias-up signal isn't triggered at 1:20. Back under 2880.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback, perhaps reversing the session back down. Back under 2874.00 would target 2848.00-2849.00. A bullish Gap-and-Go setup may be forming. Having gapped up and extended higher into the noon hour, hovering sideways would indicate that strong-handed sellers weren't arriving. A weak-handed pullback Wednesday would be allowed, and likely to recover. But already reversing down too deeply this afternoon would disqualify the setup.

Monday's late probe into positive territory soon extended higher overnight up to 2865.00. A deep pullback tested Monday's 2833.00 cash session close as support, but recovered entirely into Tuesday's open. And through it, extending higher to attack 2890.00 soon after noon. Dipping to 2877.00 was recovered entirely back to noon's high, just in time for a negative headline to trigger a collapse, extending through the close down to 2852.00. Tuesday's rally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Three relevant levels had been probed since Monday's close -- 2848.00-2849.00 overnight, 2877.00 post-open, and 2886.00 during the afternoon. Closing back under the higher 2886.00 reflects the recovery losing momentum, and closing under the penultimate 2877.00 reflects momentum reversing down. Being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline, its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} correction is likely. This isn't required, especially since the reaction's first leg was corrected early by 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} before falling deeper. But we'll still monitor for the entire pre-close reaction's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement at 2875.00 if it's met. Meanwhile, the knee-jerk reaction's late timing helped to inhibit counter-trend sponsorship, and to anticipate it extending down through the close. All else being equal, but earlier in a session, usually corrects or resumes the prevailing trend before the next intraday timing window lapses. This late timing also tends to extend the reaction into the following session. Since 2877.00 was rejected, its reaction's likely objective is 2844.00-2845.00. Perhaps the extended pullback will develop into something more substantial, next targeting 2717.00 and beyond. Gapping up Wednesday above 2875.00 would be the earliest indication that sellers are already done, and that the recovery attempt's next higher objective at 2895.00 is in-play. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2772.75 2763.75 ...would target 2784.25 2775.25 Bias-down: under 2861.00 2852.00 ...would target 2749.00 2740.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.