Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's late probe into positive territory soon extended higher overnight up to 2865.00. A deep pullback tested Monday's 2833.00 cash session close as support, but recovered entirely into Tuesday's open. And through it, extending higher to attack 2890.00 soon after noon. Dipping to 2877.00 was recovered entirely back to noon's high, just in time for a negative headline to trigger a collapse, extending through the close down to 2852.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's close had retraced back under its intraday probes above two relevant levels -- 2877.00 and 2886.00 -- ending upside momentum and reversing momentum down. This put into play a test of the prior relevant level at 2848.00-2849.00, and more precisely its room for noise down to 2844.00-2845.00. [Market Wrap and its recording describe this in detail.] Globex bounced briefly up to 2869.00 and then reversed down sharply to 2843.50. As expected, stronger hands bought there eagerly. Its reaction rallied relentlessly to greet Europe's opens off of 2886.00. Its reaction down to 2870.00 has been recovered entirely to retest 2886.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording 2886.00 is also the origin of yesterday's headline knee-jerk reaction. The retracement back to its origin is now complete, literally. Neither the origin, nor its 2875.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} proxy, require being traded intraday. Neither was required anyway, since the reaction's first leg had corrected already by 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. So, gapping up above 2875.00 is the earliest indication that sellers are already done. And having also fulfilled the reaction's 2844.00-2845.00 objective, extending above yesterday's highs through a timing window's exit could be considered as resuming the (bear market) rally. Especially if exited above 2890.75 and its 2895.00 counterpart. Testing either without maintaining its recovery through that timing window exit, or exiting under a relevant support, could reinstate the decline, next targeting an intraday test of 2844.00-2845.00 but probably also 2717.00 and beyond. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2881.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2875.25 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2870.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up.

Most recently held a test of bias-down, putting into play a test of bias-up. And the 2863.75 up signal is already being probed up to its 2875.25 up target. The timing of this excess reflects weaker-handed sponsorship. It is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced down to 2863.75. This morning isn't just a no-bias environment, but actually a LATE no-bias. No matter how likely that its requirements are usually met, they don't become "unfinished business." Exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target would undermine the no-bias trending retracement. The 2875.25 up target's test reacted down 10 points, which is pretty responsive. New stronger-handed sponsorship would have ignored 2875.25 before reacting. So, the normal bias requirements are that much likelier to be honored -- specifically in this case by at least retracing the 2863.75 up signal. More so, the open's tests of both bias-up parameters already chipped away at their resistance. They should now be giving way more easily if current buyers are stronger-handed. I'll still give buyers a benefit of the doubt upon entering the noon hour above 2875.25, and preferably also above 2881.00 and 2886.00. But the pattern meanwhile remains vulnerable to resuming yesterday's late decline, especially since its timing was likely to have inhibited stronger-handed buyers through this morning or even through today.

P.S. Note the new-ish terminology, replacing strong-handed with strongER-handed, and weak with weakER. It's probably long overdue, since the former implies there are only two versions of buyers, when there are actually different gradients along a spectrum of intensity and intent.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2870.50 2862.50 ...would target 2882.00 2874.00 Bias-down: under 2855.25 2847.25 ...would target 2847.00 2833.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still absorbing yesterday's collapse, but not extending it. Knowing the timing and catalyst of yesterday's late collapse had told us it was weak-handed, and unlikely to recover during this morning. No-bias trending above its 2863.75 bias-up signal back up to its 2875.25 bias-up target would still require being retraced. And it was, down to 2851.75. Now firming through the noon hour has triggered this afternoon's 2862.50 bias-up signal. It was triggered late, after absorbing a spike down to 2856.00 that recovered up to 2871.00. The 2874.00 bias-up target is in-play. Currently, a reaction down has violated its pullback limit. The 2862.50 bias-up signal is being probed by 3 points, for bias-up downtrending that requires being retraced as if it were no-bias trending. Regardless, back under 2857.50 would start to signal a deeper dive underway.

The timing of Tuesday's late collapse had made it likely to influence Wednesday morning, too, despite already having met its 2844.00-2845.00 target overnight. And despite the target's reaction having rallied back up to the collapse's 2886.00 origin. Gapping up to only test the collapse's 2875.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement wasn't strong-handed enough to resume the rally intraday, so the open collapsed back down to 2847.00. The balance of the session ranged choppily, narrowing in to 2860.00, where the last half-hour collapsed again to 2832.00. Wednesday's late break lower wasn't preceded by uptrending like Tuesday, so its recovery isn't as likely. Nevertheless, I suspect that Wednesday's late collapse was sponsored by weak-handed, disappointed daytrading longs who acted during the Position-squaring window exactly as its name implies. The best proof of that would be to trend straight back up now that the day and its daytraders are done. The close broke through the same supports that had enabled the overnight drop to rebound. The bullish scenario would gap up back above them all, preferably above 2860.00. Its reward would be to test Wednesday afternoon's 2874.00 "unfinished business." Recovering 2874.00 would the first stop to even suggesting that last week's 2965.00 high is being retested. Meanwhile, its test would be equally vulnerable to launching a durable downleg. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2853.00 2845.00 ...would target 2866.75 2858.75 Bias-down: under 2835.25 2827.25 ...would target 2826.00 2818.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.