Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The timing of Tuesday's late collapse had made it likely to influence Wednesday morning, too, despite already having met its 2844.00-2845.00 target overnight. And despite the target's reaction having rallied back up to the collapse's 2886.00 origin. Gapping up to only test the collapse's 2875.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement wasn't strong-handed enough to resume the rally intraday, so the open collapsed back down to 2847.00. The balance of the session ranged choppily, narrowing in to 2860.00, where the last half-hour collapsed again to 2832.00. "Unfinished business" was left outstanding at the afternoon's 2874.00 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Firming momentarily up to 2838.50 soon reacted down to fresh lows at 2823.00 through the pre-Asia window, to what became the earlier Globex low. The balance of the night has trended straight back up, relentlessly and substantially. Europe's opens were greeted at 2860.00, which released spikes up to 2875.00. Yesterday afternoon's unfinished business at 2874.00 was neutralized before gradually extending up to 2879.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Immediately rallying from yesterday's close would have been the best proof that the late collapse was sponsored by weak-handed, disappointed daytrading longs. The next qualified rejection came after extending lower through Globex's first hour of limited sponsorship -- including counter-trend sponsorship. Completely retracing the late collapse before Europe's opens had already confirmed the collapse's weaker-handed sponsorship. Now also neutralizing 2874.00's unfinished business opens the door to stronger-handed sellers launching a more durable decline that breaks through last night's 2823.00 low. Unless today's open were to break back under 2860.00, extending first up to 2890.75 or 2895.50 is possible. Closing any higher would greet tomorrow's payrolls from a position of strength, so any bearish scenario for Friday should be greeted from closing back under 2860.00. Much of either scenario should develop before noon, as price action often becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead on the afternoon ahead of payrolls. Setups in-play at the open are the Relentless Overnight and Session-Long Rally, which are described during the Market Tour recording linked above. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2866.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2858.75 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2850.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2845.00 bias-up signal.

Triggering two bullish setups. The 2874.50 open quickly began probing overnight highs, soon attacking 2887.00. That was the first retest of Tuesday night's highs, which were the first retracement back to Tuesday afternoon's late knee-jerk collapse from 2886.00. This morning's retest of 2886.00 reacted down sharply to 2869.00. That was drastic, and unnecessary, but not an anomaly. This was its first intraday retest, and Tuesday night's retest did hold until now. Anyway, the reaction down comes from a position of strength created by two bullish setups that triggered through the opening 15 minutes. Relentless Overnight Trending was followed by uptrending to reflect intraday reinforcements. And recovering yesterday afternoon's bias environment high (the morning's, too) indicates a Session-long rally lies ahead.

The first setup points to uptrending this morning, and the second expects every timing window but one to probe its prior timing window's high.

Unless the morning bias environment is the Session-long setup's one timing window exception, it should still recover to fresh session highs. That's what the Relentless Overnight setup expects, too.

Already, the reaction down has recovered 16 points to 2883.00. Back under 2870.50 would all but confirm something more substantially bearish has developed. Meanwhile, 2890.75 and 2895.50 remain in-play.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2903.50 2895.50 ...would target 2916.00 2908.00 Bias-down: under 2892.25 2884.25 ...would target 2782.00 2874.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Neither bias signal touched, only attacked. The morning's bias environment had already probed the open's 2883.75 high. So, that window is not the Session-long rally setup's exception for probing its prior timing window high. For good measure, the bias environment exit surged to fresh highs. Not only for good measure. The Relentless Overnight Trending setup had told us to expect morning pullbacks would recover to fresh highs. The noon hour entry touched 2995.00, so that window doesn't need an excuse for not probing its prior timing window high. This leaves the afternoon bias environment, and the final hour. Or, neither, as no window is required to avoid probing higher.

Meanwhile, attacking my likeliest upside target at 2895.50 to within 2 ticks essentially satisfies it. Regardless of any bullish setup, fulfilling the target makes the session vulnerable to reversing down. And if the afternoon bias environment probes a fresh high, then reversing down sharply would be entirely credible.

Breaking higher is still possible, and would suggest 2965.00 and higher were in-play. Hovering around the noon hour's high is also possible, which would form a bullish Gap-and-go setup.

Wednesday's late collapse from 2860.00 to its 2823.00 Globex low had likely been sponsored by weak hands. Rallying straight up overnight reversed the late collapse and probed unfinished business at 2874.00 up to 2881.50. Two bullish setups were triggered through Thursday's open: Maintaining a gap up above Wednesday's bias environment highs formed a Session-long rally. And trending up through the open reflected reinforcements to the Relentless Overnight Rally.

The Relentless setup was tested by a couple of abrupt, steep collapses, but ultimately surged to new highs into the noon hour.

The Session-long setup left outstanding one timing window probing a prior timing window's high. That would have made Friday morning likely to trend up from its open.

Meanwhile, afternoon sellers formed the PM Traction setup, by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low and then entering the final hour lower. So, Friday morning is now likely to trend down from its open. My likely target for the recovery was 2895.50, which is essentially neutralized having been attacked to within 2 ticks. But it wasn't rejected by closing under 2874.00, so the recovery is free to probe higher if not already breaking lower into Friday's noon hour. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.25 2884.25 ...would target 2903.50 2895.50 Bias-down: under 2872.00 2866.00 ...would target 2861.25 2853.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.