Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's 2786.25 open had broken lower from only ranging sideways overnight. Extending down to 2760.25 resolved like Wednesday afternoon's break lower, quickly reacting back up into the range. The bounce extended out of the noon hour to probe Wednesday afternoon's 2818.00 highs up to 2833.00. The last half-hour broke higher again to attack 2854.00 through the close. That ended the multi-session decline's momentum, but no upside traction was gained or reversal signal triggered. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The momentum of yesterday's late extension has stalled. The late probe through the 2847.00 close to 2854.00 has served overnight as the midpoint of sideways ranging. Price action has fluctuated either way into positive and negative territories, and back again, largely between 2837.00-2860.00. There is suddenly some indication that might be ending, as price has suddenly collapsed for an hour from 2854.00 down to 2816.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Only ranging sideways overnight was suggesting that yesterday's recovery had not (yet) reversed the week's earlier downtrend. Extending higher today was already unlikely because yesterday afternoon's rally gained no traction. Also, Thursday's open had served by proxy as an actively bearish WedEX signal, which is more influential Monday morning, but meanwhile reinforces bearish setups. This could include a bearish Globex-flip now forming since last night's probe above yesterday's high is threatening to exit the open under the 2841.00 earlier Globex low. We'll compare that to the open's proximity to Wednesday afternoon's lower prior highs which this late Globex break is now testing as support. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2835.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2825.25 would be likely at least to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2817.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2820.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Conflicting signals. Finally breaking lower before this morning's open had extended down sharply. Its reaction up to the 2820.50 open blipped-down to pierce the 2811.00 pre-open low down to 2809.50. Its reaction extended up to within 1 point of this morning's 2848.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. There's more there than it might seem. After probing the prior session's highs overnight, exiting the open under the earlier Globex low formed a bearish Globex-flip setup. It only means that looking back at 11:30-noon we'll see the morning ultimately trended down. That was looking unlikely when both bias-down parameters were recovered through 10:15. This puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. The 2848.00 bias-up signal was already attacked close enough to neutralize it. The 2860.00 bias-up target's test isn't required, especially since the 10:15 high has yet to be exceeded. But at least the 2831.00 bias-down signal must be retraced if the 2820.75 bias-down signal holds as support through 11:30-noon. That remains to be seen. A test of the 2820.75 bias-down signal down to 2815.00 is now reacting up to 2829.00, so expiration remains wide open.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2842.25 2835.00 ...would target 2852.25 2845.00 Bias-down: under 2825.00 2817.75 ...would target 2808.75 2801.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Is a rally possible? The open's eventual surge from 2809.50 up to 2847.00 had reacted down to 2815.00. Firming into the bias environment exit extended back up to the morning's high. That's also yesterday's close, and this morning's bias-up signal. Also being tested is this afternoon's 2845.00 bias-up target. 2845.00 is also an inflection point, but it's not inflecting -- the past half-hour has mostly fluctuated narrowly around it. A false break higher could react down sharply from 2850.50, but not reacting down could leverage expiration's influence and trend up into the close. Breaking back under the 2835.00 bias-up signal would be free to extend down after the bias environment begins lapsing.

Backing-and-filling was likely Friday morning, which began with a pre-open drop to 2811.00. Retesting it by 6 ticks during Friday's open reacted up to touch Thursday's 2847.00 cash session close. Exiting the open under the 2841.00 earlier Globex low had triggered a bearish Globex-flip, sending the morning bias environment back down to 2814.50. Rallying through the afternoon bias environment attacked 2856.00, just 2 points above Thursday's last-minute high. The final 60-90 minutes ranged sideways back down to 2840.00. WedEX was rendered moot after having begun forming late by the proxy of Thursday's opening dip. The setup would have completed by trending down Friday afternoon, which didn't happen. No new traction or objectives were formed. So, despite the week's multi-session decline having lost its traction, the next trending can still develop in either direction. We'll discuss those paths and their triggers during Saturday Review's bigger picture discussion. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2873.25 2866.00 ...would target 2886.25 2879.00 Bias-down: under 2848.25 2841.00 ...would target 2834.50 2827.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.