Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's open was greeted by Relentless Overnight Trending that had attacked 3097.00. No small feat after Sunday night's gap down had attacked 3027.00, 54 points under Friday's 3084.50 cash session close. Monday's open repeated the pattern by attacking 3066.00 and immediately launching its own relentless intraday trending. Bias-up triggered twice, and their 3110.50-3111.00 targets were met by a rally through the close up to 3114.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Surreal. Monday's rally had soon extended to test 3125.00, and barely consolidated before it suddenly plunged 60 points down to 3060.00. The catalyst was "news" that Peter Navarro had said the China deal was off. Which was weird, because I had watched that interview in real-time TWO HOURS EARLIER and thought nothing of his comment. I identified a 3108.75 target in the chaRTroom, and within 30 minutes it was probed back to the plunge's 3120.00 origin. Sideways ranging broke higher at Europe's opens, now probing fresh highs at 3139.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: SETUPS & PATTERNS WORKSHOP AT 6:30 ET... Yesterday's last upleg had neutralized upside attractions, and no intraday traction was gained for the effort. So, rallying this morning would require gapping up to start it. And that was expected, based on the past week's accumulative pattern, and more unfinished business above. Yesterday's rally also suggested that the ongoing negative COVID headlines are fully discounted. Last night's resilience proves the underlying strength, reversing a 65-point drop into an 80-point rally. But that stunning round trip is a double-edged sword. Its shock-to-the system could inhibits trending while being digested -- similar to how our current week-long range began with last Tuesday's huge intraday swing that has contained price action ever since. However, this latest instance was only overnight, and gapping up from yesterday's pattern is likely to trend this morning, regardless. The open is currently indicated back at last Tuesday's and Friday's gaps up that were reversed down immediately, so we'll take seriously trending either way through the open. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3135.00 would be likely to exceed the 3129.75 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3120.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 3116.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3108.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Victim of its own success. The overnight recovery extended back to the past week range's upper-end at 3146.00. This opened even wider to sellers an already opened door that I had described during the Market Tour. Continually  expending buying pressure so near to the open could inhibit its sponsorship, and allow a post-open pullback. Could inhibit. It didn't have to. But it has. The open didn't trend either up or down, but its window did lapse above the 3134.25 open, having absorbed an initial dip. Not an optimal position of strength to marginalize sellers, or to prevent lower lows. In fact, probing at the open's resistance up to 3136.00 just reacted down on California and Florida COVID headlines. Pullback potential to 3120.00 is now tested. The headline's knee-jerk reaction is being retraced by 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. Back above the reaction's 3129.75 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} reaction should all but ensure its complete retracement. And there's no bearish reason for that. The headline's brief reaction further suggests the COVID headlines are discounted. But we'll want to see an even more limited reaction -- if any -- to further COVID headlines (Texas? Arizona?) as further proof of the rally's underlying strength and timing.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3156.25 3145.00 ...would target 3166.25 3155.00 Bias-down: under 3141.00 3129.75 ...would target 3129.00 3117.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

COVID headlines absorbed. COVID headlines extended the post-open pullback to eventually test 3120.00 which I had noted during the Market Tour as likely to contain morning weakness. Its recovery probed fresh morning highs up to 3141.25 as the bias environment began lapsing. The weakness was prolonged by California and Florida data, but its brief reaction suggested that was only a formality. In fact, Texas and Arizona data that soon followed had no obvious influence on the morning's recovery. Fully discounted. Now the afternoon's consolidation has broken higher to attack 3144.00, attacking the pre-open highs. Rallying out of the week-long range, as this afternoon is threatening, remains likely to fill the gap at 3159.00 up to 3162.50, potentially also up to 3188.00 and 3197.50. This afternoon's 3145.00 bias-up signal didn't trigger, so it's likely to define the next 45 minutes' resistance, or else leave behind unfinished business that requires being retraced later.

REMINDER: 6:30 ET WORKSHOP ON "SETUPS AND PATTERNS" (info here) Rallying Tuesday morning would require gapping up, but gapping up wouldn't require rallying. Rallying was only more difficult thanks to the overnight shock-to-the system and energy expended to recover from 3060.00. Gapping up didn't stop reacting down from the 3146.00 overnight high, as Tuesday's open under the week-long range's upper-end slid further. The morning's pullback held its 3120.00 limit, but its reaction only attacked the overnight high to within 3 ticks. The afternoon's 3116.00 pullback limit held into the close. Tuesday afternoon bias environment lapsed within the noon hour range to avoid gaining traction. Breaking higher into the final hour could have served by proxy, but didn't. Breaking either way any later would likely not be durable, so extending Tuesday's late pullback lower Wednesday would require gapping down. Similarly, rallying Wednesday morning would require gapping up. Meanwhile, trending down into Tuesday's close allows gapping up above the 3145.00 afternoon high to form a session-long rally setup. If that is triggered and probes above the week-long range, then 3159.00-3162.50 would be in-play. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3138.50 3127.25 ...would target 3151.75 3140.50 Bias-down: under 3121.75 3110.50 ...would target 3109.50 3098.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.