Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's on-again / off-again rally was on-again, after Sunday night's rally up to 3026.50 was reversed down to 2988.50 during the open, yet recovered in time to trigger the morning's 3017.50 bias-up. Its 3032.50 bias-up target was overlapped up to 3040.00 by narrow legs through the afternoon no-bias environment. The rally was off-again when another dip fell to 3021.25, but once more on-again by surging to attack 3049.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late surge had probed 3051.00 before the Globex open, which soon extended to test 3059.00. Ranging sideways through midnight down to 3047.00 eventually broke lower to 3036.00 ahead of Europe's opens. A fresh low attacking 3030.00 retraced the origin of yesterday's late surge. Its reaction is back above yesterday's highs and testing 3047.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Whatever the cause of yesterday's late surge, it has been corrected so that gapping up would be credible for extending higher this morning. Quarter-end re-balancing and other portfolio window dressing remains influential today, and its influence can cut either way. Absent another catalyst to reinforce yesterday's late surge, already correcting it doesn't prevent also reversing it back down. Like yesterday -- but inversely -- the overnight reversal from fresh highs is threatening to form bearish Isolation and Globex-flip setups. Holding up enough through the open could be as bullish as the setups would have been bearish. Resuming the decline would have potential for fresh lows down to 2966.00, and a rally could extend up to 3093.00-3112.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3044.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3050.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3042.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3037.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3031.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Target now being tested. A surge to 3055.00 followed this morning's Market Tour recording, triggered by new of INO's vaccine progress. Its reaction fell to 3035.00 where the open surged back up. Pullback limits have held their tests while confirming a late bias-up above 3050.50 that is targeting 3066.00. Now probing the target above 3069.00, the rally could still extend higher. But no unfinished business would be left outstanding to help absorb a reaction down. Except for Sunday night and Monday's opening lows, the entire rally from yesterday morning has been contained entirely within Friday range. This doesn't reject it, but it does expend a lot of buying pressure without yet gaining traction for the effort. Technical deterioration and divergence at this morning's target is credible for defining the high -- IF its reaction is deep enough to trigger a sell signal.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3084.50 3074.00 ...would target 3098.50 3088.00 Bias-down: under 3064.00 3053.50 ...would target 3053.50 3043.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Resistance at Friday's highs is holding. Fresh highs during the noon hour tested this afternoon's 3074.00 bias-up signal by 2 ticks. Although probing a buy signal from 3-4 points lower, extending the rally wasn't very likely with Powell and Mnuchin about to appear. So, no-bias triggered and a reversal is testing 3056.00, with further room to the 3053.50 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment. Resuming the rally becomes more possible as Powell and Mnuchin near their end, but not at all required. A lot of buying pressure has been expended since yesterday's open, and only retracing Friday's downleg doesn't gain traction for the effort. Breaking beyond either end of the bias environment when it begins lapsing would be credible for extending through the close. A shrinking window for further decline will have likely slammed shut by tomorrow morning.

Monday's late surge had extended to 3059.25 overnight, before eventually retracing the surge's 3030.00 origin at the overnight low. Surging in reaction to INO's vaccine news was also retraced from 3055.00 down to 3035.00. Tuesday's immediate rally extended to 3072.50 and ranged choppily sideways until the afternoon's Powell and Mnuchin Senate testimony was winding down. Fresh highs were testing their 3077.00 target within 10 minutes of the close when more re-balancing triggered a third surge. Piercing its target by 3 ticks up to 3101.25 was also retraced entirely back down to its 3081.00 origin. The late surge was not an organic expression of opinion, or technically-triggered supply and demand. It was purely mechanical position jockeying, which told us to anticipate a complete retracement from its 3100.50 target. Unfortunately, that already played out before the close, instead of offering a reliable overnight trade. So, without having gained any traction, extending the rally Wednesday morning requires gapping up. The alternative isn't necessarily to reverse down, but any aggressive downleg should be underway before the open as the 3-day holiday weekend approaches. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3101.75 3091.50 ...would target 3015.75 3105.50 Bias-down: under 3085.75 3075.50 ...would target 3070.50 3060.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.