Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Overnight sideways ranging between 3079.00-3088.00 had broken lower to 3063.00, threatening to open back under Tuesday's final hour entry. That would have been bearish, but the ADP report triggered a recovery back up to the overnight highs. PFE's vaccine news probed Tuesday's late surge high up to 3103.00. Intraday action was less exciting. Most of Wednesday was contained between 3093.00-3112.00, with a late probe attacking 3118.00 closing back within the range at 3103.00-3105.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Nights before an Employment Situation report are usually unremarkable. Last night's flat-to-higher ranging fit that description, initially. It was choppy, dipping another 10 points to 3095.50 and bouncing 15 points to 3011.00, then dipping again to unchanged. But that last dip to unchanged suddenly spiked to greet Europe's opens at fresh overnight highs. Surging even higher soon attacked 3131.00 -- all against the backdrop of word the US is readying "harsh" sanctions against China. The fresh high's reaction down to yesterday's 3118.00 high is now bouncing again off of its support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Anxiousness ahead of today's Employment Situation report often paralyzes price action on the prior afternoon. Especially when the morning didn't trend, and yesterday's gap up doesn't qualify as a morning trend. However, the overnight trending that produced yesterday's gap up does keep alive a multi-session trend, and greeting the Employment report in a multi-session trend all but ensures intraday trending. Announcing the report simultaneously with Jobless Claims at least ensures a volatile reaction. Yesterday's favorable reaction to the pre-open ADP report (similar to Payrolls), and closing within a 2-week old trading range for the first time in a week, suggest resolving favorably today. Closing within that 2-week old trading range's 3093.00-3012.00 equilibrium band, then extending higher overnight, also suggest the recovery is gaining traction. Not reacting down to the news, or quickly absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, would be likely to trend higher. Resolving down anyway would be fighting against the close to try damaging the recovery, which has room for a pullback down to 3043.00. The 3-day weekend is too close for a reaction down to easily attract strong-handed reinforcements -- so, only a plunge would be bearish. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Post-open extension retraced. The Employment Situation report was greeted at this morning's 3127.25 bias-up target. Its reaction spiked up to test the 2-week old range's 3143.50 intraday high. The open's dip attacked 3141.00 before resuming higher to test the 2-week old range's 3156.25 pre-open high. Too much, too soon. 3143.50 was exceeded through both 9:45 and 10:00 to start forming a bullish Opening Thrust setup. But it was reversed by 10:30 to avoid confirming. Also testing and rejecting the 3156.25 2-week old pre-open high doesn't help the recovery. But not testing it by 10:00 prevents its rejection from being bearish. So, a sell signal triggered under 3145.25, and its minimum 3135.00 target was just met. Resuming the rally this morning isn't likely, but retracing its pullback would be triggered above 3143.00. Meanwhile, any lower would next target 3129.00. Sellers aren't marginalized which exiting the first hour above relevant levels would have done. But the burden of proof is on sellers, anyway. And potential for flat-to-higher remains alive.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3150.50 3140.75 ...would target 3160.62 3150.50 Bias-down: under 3137.00 3127.25 ...would target 3125.25 3115.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another typical Friday afternoon. On a Thursday. The Opening Thrust ultimately failed to gain traction on its tests of 3143.50 and 3156.25 prior highs. But that didn't qualify as a rejection to reverse the trend down. Momentum was another story, and the morning's reaction down fulfilled its likely 3129.00 pullback objective. Then its less likely objective was tested by 6 ticks down to 3119.25. Down 37 points off within 90 minutes, and still well into positive territory. Sellers don't gain traction for that effort. Similar to the Opening Thrust's principle, that tends to identify a low on Fridays -- even with oversold RSIs left outstanding at the low. Exiting the morning's bias environment back at 3129.00 has become flat-to-higher ranging, probing this afternoon's bias-up signal by 1 point up to 3141.75. This being a no-bias environment, either bias signal should define that end of the window if tested. Extending any higher would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. The bias signal's test is now reacting down to test 3135.00, perhaps correcting and consolidating to wait out the bias window lapsing soon. Drifting higher into the weekend, or ranging flat-to-lower, would be a typical Friday afternoon... even for a Thursday with its 3-day holiday weekend illiquidity growing exponentially closer. REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND, SO MARKET WRAP WILL COVER THE BIGGER PICTURE.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND... Bullish conditions were greeting Thursday's Employment Situation report, even before Wednesday night's 3102.00 open. Greeting the report at the inflection point of the morning's bias-up target surged to 3147.50 pre-open, and extended up to 3156.50 during the open. Those were also tests of the 2-week old 8-day range's upper-end, and their resistance ultimately held. Reacting down attacked 3119.00 at the morning's low. A 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement up to 3143.50 reversed to fresh lows that attacked 3114.00 bouncing to 3130.00 through the close. The bullish conditions remain intact, if not more so. Thursday morning's post-open reversal expended 37 points of selling pressure without even attacking Wednesday's 3118.00 high. The afternoon low barely probed it. No unfinished business was left outstanding, as the last-minute low's oversold RSIs don't require a retest. And Thursday's close was above the 3093.00-3112.00 equilibrium range that was recovered for the first time on Wednesday. A complex Ascending Triangle has formed since the month-old Island's collapse. I discuss its influences and consequences during Thursday's expanded Market Wrap, which includes a bigger picture review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading through 1:00 ET July 3 in the chaRTroom here. REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3144.25 3134.50 ...would target 3160.25 3150.50 Bias-down: under 3127.75 3118.00 ...would target 3115.75 3106.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.