Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Gapping up Monday to 3200.50 and trending up through the morning's renewed bias-up attacked the 5-week old Island's high to within 1 point at 3222.50. The afternoon's noN-bias window produced a new recovery high at 3226.25 -- which immediately began sliding back down to the 3191.00 opening lows. A brief bounce was reversed for a late collapse that probed last week's range back down to 3140.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Firming into the Globex open extended up to 3160.00 where the session's highs formed. It was gradually reversed down to attack Monday's late low at 3143.00. Surging greeted Europe's opens at 3166.00 which triggered a collapse back down to 3143.00. The earlier 3160.00 high is now being retested. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late collapse may have been the beginning of the one bearish pattern we had discussed at Saturday Review. The stability of last night's narrow sideways range shouldn't be confused as strength, but no bounce is necessary before the bearish pattern extends down. Bouncing anyway has room up to 3184.50 to delay the bearish momentum without damaging its trend reversal. Any higher could probe fresh highs before resuming the bearish momentum. A temporary bounce should develop more aggressively and resolve down faster, so shallower steady bouncing could be bullish. Somewhat similarly, probing fresh lows first wouldn't be suspicious, but would bear a burden of proof that yesterday's decline is actually extending. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3166.00 would be likely to trigger the 3160.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Suspicions getting suspicier. Yesterday's late collapse was substantial, and almost perfectly fit the potential bearish pattern's description. I shared my suspicions in yesterday's Market Wrap and today's Market Tour about why its momentum might need to be refueled by a bounce or a delay. Nevertheless, as I warned this morning, the overnight range's stability shouldn't be confused as strength.

Bring on the Too-late-to-break setup. The overnight range's breakout came within 60-90 minutes of the open, making its retracement likely. And also making its more substantial reversal possible.

So far, probes under yesterday's 3140.00 low down to 3127.00 and 3119.00 have reacted up to 3152.00 and 3158.00. And this comes after triggering the 3136.00 bias-down signal, then recovering it through 10:30 to be invalidated. Invalidated bias has no objective in-play, and doesn't require holding support or resistance. The decline is free to resume. But so long as sellers don't regain control -- coming out of the bias environment or noon hour -- then yesterday's suspicions may be validated by a bigger bounce up to 3177.00-3184.50.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3176.75 3167.50 ...would target 3189.50 3180.25 Bias-down: under 3162.75 3153.50 ...would target 3146.75 3137.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Not a bias-down, not a no-bias. The minimum likely consequence to this morning's weak-handed sellers down to 3119.00 was structural, i.e. fresh highs. Two similar structural consequences were to probe the 3152.00 opening high, and then also the 3166.00 overnight high as the bias environment was lapsing. Flat-to-lower through the noon hour down to 3144.00 threatened to trigger the 3153.50 bias-down signal. But it still overlapping it at both 1:20 and 1:30 triggered noN-bias. The bias-down target is not in-play, and the bias-up signal doesn't require holding as resistance. The bias-down target is not in-play, and which was exploited by extending to fresh highs at 3169.50. The 3167.50 bias-up signal doesn't require holding as resistance, and a 13-point blip-down there on Trump-China headlines quickly recovered to another fresh high attacking 3172.00. Extending higher isn't prevented, only inhibited. Less so when the bias environment is lapsing after 2:30, which can just as easily launch a new downleg. Entering the final hour at fresh session highs would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but clues are limited until then.

Ranging sideways overnight had stabilized Monday's late collapse from 3226.00 down to 3140.00, but that doesn't equate to strength. In fact, a too-late-to-break drop greeted the open at 3132.00 on the way down to 3119.00. The setup was likely to recover back into the range, and often reverses more substantially through it. The recovery was quick, eventually piercing overnight highs as the morning bias environment lapsed. Extending higher was delayed, but trended up to 3192.25 through the close. Monday's late collapse wasn't confirmed by a second consecutive lower close, and even closed back above the 5-day range that it had retraced. None of which invalidates the collapse from being the first downleg, with a second coming close behind. But not already trending back down at or through Wednesday's open would be likelier to attack or to retest Monday's highs -- and potentially also to extend the rally. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3204.25 3195.00 ...would target 3217.25 3208.00 Bias-down: under 3086.25 3077.00 ...would target 3169.50 3160.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.