Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Ranging sideways overnight had stabilized Monday's late collapse from 3226.00 down to 3140.00, but that doesn't equate to strength. In fact, a too-late-to-break drop greeted the open at 3132.00 on the way down to 3119.00. The setup was likely to recover back into the range, and often reverses more substantially through it. The recovery was quick, eventually piercing overnight highs as the morning bias environment lapsed. Extending higher was delayed, but trended up to 3192.25 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Trump's press conference and MRNA's news triggered a gap up to 3204.00 at the Globex open. But not to extend higher. Ranging narrowly sideways up to 3214.50 broke slightly lower to 3198.00 through Europe's opens. Now an unrelated COVID headline from Oxford has triggered a surge through the earlier highs to attack 3229.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Despite it being me that had warned this weekend of a bearish pattern that would reverse a morning rally into an afternoon decline, and despite Monday's pattern tracking that template, I still had a list of suspicions that I shared after the close and before yesterday's open. And after yesterday's close avoided confirming Monday's collapse, the highs are being probed pre-open. Disaster averted? Perhaps. But now having neutralized overbought RSIs at Monday's high, the rally is again vulnerable to reversing down. Not already trending back down at or through the open would be likelier to entrench the rally, at least helping to absorb later backing-and-filling. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open 3211.50 would be likely also to exceed the 3208.00 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3198.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3195.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3190.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bullish, even if only to create a position of strength. Ultimately probing fresh highs up to 3233.25, a pre-open dip into the 3223.00 open eventually extended down to 3111.50. Reacting up hovered for awhile around the 3223.00 open through 9:45. No downtrending through the open. A second dip eventually retested the prior low down to 3210.50. Its retest was as a little longer lasting, but resolved up again. Still no downtrending. That's a position of strength. But it doesn't require trending up this morning. Price has firmed to now attack 3230.00, but not with the overtly bullish characteristics that an upleg should exhibit at this stage. An intraday dip into the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement could still develop down to 3206.50 or 3201.50 if this sluggish post-open recovery attempt isn't much more productive soon.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3223.25 3214.75 ...would target 3239.75 3231.25 Bias-down: under 3206.50 3198.25 ...would target 3193.00 3184.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Backing-and-filling from a position of strength. The open's ranging formed a position of strength that doesn't prevent a dip, but we expect it to be absorbed. That means retracing anything from the 3223.00 open up to the 3230.00 post-open high, and higher. Probing back above the open's range had attacked 3230.00 but lacked the specific bullish characteristics I had described. Its reaction trended down to 3192.00 at noon. Trending back up through the noon hour has recovered to test 3217.00, but not to trigger this afternoon's bias-up signal 2 points lower. Extending higher would be credible 30 minutes from now as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing. Extending higher isn't required, but only ending the day back under this morning's lows would be bearish.

Without having gained traction Tuesday afternoon, extending the rally Wednesday morning would require first gapping up. But even that wouldn't require extending, as the gap up creates room for the rally to allow selling without it damaging the chart. Wednesday's reaction down from its 3233.00 pre-open high slid through noon down to 3192.00, and never probed negative territory. That dip and a shallower afternoon dip never attracted stronger-handed buyers to sponsor another upleg, despite a late surge that momentarily attacked 3226.00. Having failed to gain traction again for its intraday effort, extending the rally Thursday morning would require first gapping up. Having already used a similar setup on Wednesday to safely expend selling pressure, my alternation rule suggests that gapping up again would more likely extend higher through the morning. By the same token, backing-and-filling again Thrursday morning should either resume and extend the rally, or else dig much deeper. A pullback could dig down to 3160.00 before starting to reverse the trend down. Dips avoiding that depth would be likely to resume the rally. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3240.50 3231.75 ...would target 3252.75 3244.00 Bias-down: under 3217.75 3208.00 ...would target 3200.50 3190.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.