Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Greeting Thursday's open with relentless overnight trending from 3228.50 down to 3188.50 attracted neither reinforcements nor counter-trend sponsorship. The gap down qualified as an opening thrust testing Wednesday afternoon's low, but was never confirmed or invalidated. Despite triggering bias-down and already testing its target, a dry cleaners setup formed that warned the morning might be better spent running errands. The afternoon's no-bias environment behaved similarly, maintaining the morning's 3190.50-3206.00 range. The final hour's dip to the range's lower-end reacted up to 3212.00, but quickly recognized its mistake and slid back toward the lows through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Perhaps post-close earnings from NFLX contributed to Thursday's inhibition. Its big miss helped to erase the market's last afternoon upleg. But individual company results have very limited effect on the broader market, so NFLX collapsed while the market has drifted narrowly sideways overnight. The same 3206.00 intraday resistance defined a mostly 8-point wide range, dipping once to 3195.00 after Europe's opens, and now probing a fresh high up to 3209.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Expirations not already greeted by trending may have only one opportunity through the open to establish it. The reward can be large, as expiration trending tends to be be persistent. Non-trending expirations can also be persistent. Gapping up or down must still extend through the open to establish trending. At least gapping open and not extending would still be vulnerable to reversing back to unchanged. If the open doesn't establish trending or a fad opportunity, then the next timing window candidate would be the afternoon bias environment's exit. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3211.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3217.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3201.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3198.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3193.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Offsetting test of bias-down signal already met, and holding. Gapping up to 3217.75 was not going to qualify as a trending signal, not without extending higher by 9:45. Just exit the open above the 3219.25 pre-open high, and up we go. Seems so easy. But the 3217.75 opening print was also significant resistance -- the bias-up signal. And this being expiration, trending down through its first 15 minutes tends to establish the session's trend. Also, the overnight range's breakout was essentially in the 60-90 minute pre-open window, forming a bearish  too late to break setup. So, not even maintaining the gap up made the overnight range's retracement likely. Reacting down through the open gradually increased confidence that this morning would trend back down. The bias-up signal held its test to trigger no-bias. And now the offsetting test of its 3198.25 bias-down signal is met, probed momentarily down to 3196.50. This being a no-bias environment, its range should be defined by either bias signal if tested. Reacting up to 3204.00 suggests as much. Oversold RSIs at the 3196.50 low were on the cusp of requiring a retest, so I give that a benefit of the doubt. Its retest during the no-bias window would be likely to hold, and later would be free to extend down... 3161.00?

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3227.25 3219.00 ...would target 3237.25 3229.00 Bias-down: under 3209.75 3201.50 ...would target 3196.25 3188.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Switching to auto-pilot. The too late to break and expiration gap up allowed the opening 15 minutes of volatility to indicate the morning's bearish intent. Perhaps the session's. Along the way, opening at this morning's 3217.75 bias-up signal was negotiated to put into play an offsetting test of its 3198.25 bias-down signal, which was soon probed down to 3196.50. Satisfying selling pressure, and testing the no-bias environment's boundary so early, helped the balance of the bias window to bounce. The noon hour's entry tested 3216.00. But now the afternoon has triggered no-bias, without touching either bias signal or having any requirement to test one. Expiration's opening trending often indicates more than the morning's intent, but trending down again would require confirming another sell signal. Currently a buy signal is being tested at 3213.75. The balance of the session is best viewed as the flip-side to yesterday's lack of sponsorship. But now patterns aren't reliable because sponsorship is largely focused on the mechanics of expiration. Breaking in either direction would still be credible for extending, but don't tolerate too much counter-trending which expiration can exacerbate.

Overnight ranging largely contained between 3198.50-3206.50 started trending higher up to 3219.00 within 60-90 minutes of Friday's open. This forms a too late to break setup that often retraces the overnight range. Being expiration, trending down through the open indicated at least the morning would trend down, if not also the entire session. An offsetting test of the bias-down signal was met down to 3196.50, and reacted up into the last half-hour to 3225.25. The morning did remain under the open, and the 3216.50 cash session close held the morning's recovery highs. Futures slid to 3213.00. Neither fulfilled the Friday afternoon setup that often extends the intraday uptrend after entering the final hour above the noon hour highs. From Thursday's lack of sponsorship, to expiration's competing sponsorships, the opportunity to reject Wednesday's retest of Monday's high seems to have passed. We'll discuss the likely near-term resolutions and objectives at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3228.50 3220.50 ...would target 3241.00 3233.00 Bias-down: under 3216.75 3208.75 ...would target 3205.75 3197.75 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.