Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) An overnight reaction to escalating US-China tensions triggered a drop to fresh pullback lows at 3227.25. Wednesday's 3246.00 open quickly extended to 3261.00 and essentially defined the session's range. Two intraday dips were contained, as were two bounces, finally breaking higher through the last half-hour. That late surge neutralized two higher attractions: the required gap-fill back up to Tuesday's 3264.00 open above all prior highs, and the likely intraday test of the rally's 3271.00 objective. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednedsay's late break to fresh session highs didn't extend. It only duplicated the intraday pattern of ranging narrowly sideways up to 3269.00. Then it also duplicated the late break to fresh session highs, spiking up to 3277.00 and extending to 3284.50 into Europe's opens. The upleg's complexity qualifies it as a new Globex trend extrme. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's restrained optimism suggested that probing above Tuesday's range would likely extend to the next higher attraction at 3288.00. And now Monday night's 3273.25 new Globex trend extreme is replaced by the complex upleg to 3284.50. Only consolidating since then back down to ~3275.00 indicates a gap up that is relatively near lower prior highs. Throw into the mix a touch of 3288.00, and a significant peak could start forming very quickly. June's Complex Ascending Triangle suggests that wherever the peak, its reversal should soon follow, and extend down sharply, so be on lookout for that update. The first attractions below would be yesterday's unfinished business at 3247.00 and 3239.00 bias objective. Meanwhile, extending above 3288.00 would have room up to 3303.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3278.00 would be likely to trigger the 3274.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3267.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

With a detour. Reacting down from the 3284.50 overnight highs opened at 3264.00. That was yesterday's open, too. Also like yesterday's open, the first half-hour bounced, and then reversed back under the open. But today's post-open reaction down from 3272.00 to 3254.50 was recovered back above the 3260.25 bias-down signal. Not without first invoking the grace period, but through 10:30 to trigger late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 3274.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Already the recovery has extended above its 10:30 level to confirm the signal's otherwise late trigger. Just now testing 3267.50 resistance, and any higher should behave aggressively. As for extending any higher, whether prematurely or after no-bias lapses, last night's highs require being retested eventually. And their test should come next so long as this morning isn't exited in decline.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3282.00 3274.00 ...would target 3296.25 3288.25 Bias-down: under 3268.25 3260.25 ...would target 3251.00 3243.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Neutralizing other unfinished business. The opening half-hour's attack on 3272.00 was itself attacked during the bias environment exit. But sliding through the noon hour worked its way through the morning's 3254.50 low, triggered the 3260.25 bias-down signal, and just fulfilled its 3243.00 bias-down target. By the way, all of this while testing and retesting and holding the rally's 3271.00 objective.

There is only one bullish element outstanding: Last night's new Globex trend extreme that requires intraday retest. The requirement has no timing requirement, and can be left outstanding for awhile historically.

Yesterday morning's unfinished business at 3239.00 is now being probed down to 3232.00. There was no bullish reason to test 3239.00 before neutralizing attractions above. Any bullish scenario now requires at least holding its test through the bias environment exit, and then also recovering the 3250.50 bias environment entry through a relevant timing window. RSIs are now simultaneously oversold, undermining any immediate recovery attempt. Extending lower would next target lower prior highs at 3218.00.

Wednesday's late breakout to 3271.00 did not extend higher until Europe's opens, which produced a new Globex trend extreme at 3284.50. Opening Thursday back in Wednesday's range at 3264.00 tried twice failed to recover 3271.00, even with a no-bias objective above at 3274.00. But attractions above were overwhelmed by developments on the ground. The noon hour slide extended through the bias environment to attack 3214.00. Thursday's last 60-90 minutes ranged narrowly sideways, maintaining the breakout from Tue-Wed's multi-session range. No single developing negative news item Thursday would itself seem so influential, but they cumulatively set a bearish tone. Among them was TSLA's post-earnings reversal, AAPL's new iPhone delay, broadening COVID deaths, payroll tax holiday abandoned, House anti-trust aiming at Techs. All of which were able reversal catalysts when combined with having met and held my 3271.00 target, in a Complex Ascending Triangle, with leadership rotation out of NDX already well underway. Unfinished business at 3284.50 and 3274.00 can be left outstanding if Thursday's downleg isn't yet rejected into the weekend. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm Thursday's breakout from a multi-session range. Compared to last week's pattern, trending down Friday should begin by opening under 3203.00. Being a Friday, exiting the open above any relevant level like 3240.00 or 3250.50 could still end the week in rally mode. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3245.25 3237.25 ...would target 3258.50 3250.50 Bias-down: under 3229.50 3221.50 ...would target 3214.50 3206.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.