Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Collapsing 70 points overnight to attack 3300.00, and gapping down 55-60 points Friday to touch 3311.50, still opened at the midpoint of Monday's gap-to-gap retracement. Resolving in either direction was likely to be immediate, and the open's surge soon extended up to test the current gap-to-gap retracement up to 3353.50. Despite the Opening thrust isolating its probe under the week's prior lows, Thursday's higher prior lows held as resistance. An interim knee-jerk reaction down to 3319.50 was recovered temporarily up to 3359.50, then ranged flat-to-lower down to 3335.00 into the weekend. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) If Trump waited until markets were closed for the weekend before checking into the hospital, then it paid off. At least, so far, for the market. An outside drive-by to gathered well-wishers helped Sunday night's Globex gap up, resuming Friday's test of 3360.00. Slightly higher highs attacking 3368.00 were reversed back into Friday's range by midnight. The reversal continued through Europe's opens until probing fresh overnight lows at 3346.50. Now Friday's highs are being probed again. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday night's knee-jerk reaction to the Trump-Covid headline had sucked the oxygen from an organic decline developing for Friday. Similarly, the lack of a definitive development is paralyzing price action. Weak-handed sponsorship has joined strong-hands to await another headline. Meanwhile, two mutually exclusive setups are forming. A session-long rally would form by gapping up above Friday afternoon's 3357.00 high, and could be as bearish as it would have been bullish if not maintained through the open. A Globex-flip could form from rejecting the overnight probe above Friday's highs, so exiting the open back under last night's 3349.50 earlier Globex low would likely trend down this morning. Neither setup need trigger, and neither setup need trigger for trending this morning. Regardless, trending up would target at least the gap back up to Thursday's 3370.50 close, and trending down would target recent lows. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3342.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3350.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3355.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3366.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3362.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.

Session-long rally triggered, while near-term target is met. Opening at the overnight sideways range's midpoint wasn't any likelier to resolve up than to resolve down. Being above Friday afternoon's 3357.00 high made the 3360.50 open likelier to extend higher, but not necessarily immediately. But sideways ranges often do resolve immediately, so trending up quickly was likelier. The open's 11-point surge tested 3371.00, filling the gap back up to Thursday's close. Its obligatory resistance triggered choppy sideways ranging down to 3364.25 through the first half-hour. Meanwhile, the open had maintained its gap up above Friday afternoon's 3357.00 high to trigger a session-long rally. The rally quickly extended to test its likely 3377.00 target. The target is now being tested up to 3378.50. A pullback to 3366.00-3367.50 wouldn't be surprising -- unnecessary, but unsurprising. The post-open trajectory can be refueled, and the this morning's uptrend is entrenched. A pullback must still recover to fulfill the session-long rally requirements. Extending higher with or without a pullback would next target 3384.25, and potentially 3388.00. The session-long rally expects all but one timing window to probe its prior timing window's high. A reversal down would still be likely to extend.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3390.75 signal would target 3401.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3377.00 signal would target 3366.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3400.75 3390.75 ...would target 3411.50 3401.50 Bias-down: under 3387.00 3377.00 ...would target 3376.00 3366.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Burden of proof is on sellers. The likely 3377.00 target was briefly consolidated before extending higher through 3384.25 to test its 3388.00 target by 3 ticks. That was the morning bias environment high, ranging sideways since then around 3384.25. Neither afternoon bias signal was touched to trigger no-bias. The noon hour didn't probe its prior timing window high, so both remaining timing windows should. The session-long rally setup doesn't require a similar pace or slope as this morning's rally. And fresh highs during the final hour would be vulnerable to reversing back down. The session-long setup either succeeds or fails. Succeeding through multiple timing windows does greatly increase the likelihood for tracking the setup throughout. But deviating from the session-long rally by pulling back much deeper could trend down.

Trending down into Friday's close had allowed gapping up Monday above Friday afternoon's 3357.00 high to form a session-long rally setup. Rallying through the morning fulfilled that leg's highest objective at 3388.00 by 3 ticks. Dipping out of the noon hour tested the bias-down signal by 6 ticks down to 3375.50, which the no-bias environment contained. Despite being so far removed from prior highs, surging into the final hour fulfilled the session-long rally requirements with more fresh highs. The rally extended into the last half-hour at 3400.00 and hovered into the close.

Maintaining the open's gap up above the prior afternoon's high triggers the session-long rally setup. Also trending up through the open is optimal coming out of the weekend, at least not trending down. Regardless, the setup gets a benefit of the doubt unless sellers are retaking control.

Last week's range, which began by gapping up out of the weekend, had formed a multi-session range. Probing above its 3384.25 pivotal highs Monday triggers a breakout, still requiring a second consecutive higher close Tuesday to confirm. Monday's last upleg wasn't too late to qualify as a breakout since two prior intraday timing windows had fluctuated around 3384.25. So not only not confirming, but also closing back under the 3384.25 prior high Tuesday could instead launch a new downleg. Reversing down would contradict the likelihood for a session-long rally to extend its trend the next morning. Also, overbought RSIs at Monday's high should be retested, probably up to 3401.50-3403.50. Regardless, it was a lower overbought and on the cusp, so it's not a deal-killer that prevents reversing down overnight to retest oversold RSIs at the afternoon's 3375.50 low. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3403.50 signal would target 3417.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3384.25 signal would target 3374.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3413.50 3403.50 ...would target 3427.75 3417.75 Bias-down: under 3394.25 3384.25 ...would target 3384.00 3374.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE