Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's gap up immediately recovered the excess probe under Friday's 3470.00 cash session low. Extending higher through the open to 3494.00 rejected Friday's late collapse altogether. But once serving that bullish purpose, the balance of the session trended down to test 3411.00. The decline was able to invert the morning's two bullish setups and also invalidate the afternoon no-bias trending. A post close spike up to 3433.00 seemed to be triggered by a random stimulus headline. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The stimulus headline is being taken a little more seriously since today is the arbitrary deadline imposed recently by Pelosi. Follow-on reports have supported the anticipation. Restrained optimism produced only a sideways range between 3428.00-3445.40. Until just minutes ago, when MRNA announced favorable COVID news that triggered a 7-point spike up to fresh highs attacking 3452.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) To the extent that stimulus legislation and COVID cases were catalysts to Monday's slide, the overnight news could reverse that sentiment positively. Neither item has any long-term reliability. The lack of a specified scapegoat (or two) makes an actual rally unlikely without a more substantial favorable catalyst. Unless proved otherwise through a bullish open, the most bullish scenario may be only that post-open weakness holds yesterday's lows as support. Bouncing first from testing 3415.00 does make a fresh low more capable of bottoming at 3401.50, without requiring its break down to 3356.00. Actually reversing back up should be obvious by extending higher aggressively intraday, still targeting a retest of last Monday's 3541.00 high. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3450.50 would be likely also to exceed the 3446.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3441.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3433.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3427.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Front-loaded buying, again? MRNA's vaccine headline had triggered a surge above the prior overnight highs to 3450.50. That only stretched the rubber band to snap back down to fresh overnight lows at 3426.75 All of which was retraced when the 3435.00 open rallied through 10:15 to attack 3454.00. Exceeding the 3446.00 bias-up target through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. A few errant ticks higher after 10:15 confirmed. None of which has prevented reversing back down to attack overnight lows down to 3427.00. Probing under the 3433.50 bias-up signal during its no-bias environment requires being retraced. It's being retraced now, but would required being retraced again if not maintained when the bias environment starts lapsing. Nothing requires resuming the recovery attempt, but it would be credible for extending higher. Fresh lows into the noon hour would likely attack yesterday's 3412.00 lows, if not also break lower to 3401.50.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3445.50 signal would target 3556.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3427.25 signal would target 3417.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3454.00 3445.50 ...would target 3464.50 3456.00 Bias-down: under 3435.75 3427.25 ...would target 3426.25 3417.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Pressing higher. Probing under this morning's bias-up signal down to 3427.00 during the bias-up environment had required being retraced, at least. Its recovery into the noon hour was testing 3446.00 when favorable stimulus headlines triggered a surge up to 3458.00. Favorable Fed speaker headlines resumed the recovery up to 3470.00. This retraces all of yesterday's noon hour Descending Triangle. A small Double Top formed that reacted down to 3452.50. Errant ticks probing a sell signal held its support without attracting reinforcements, now reacting up to try recovering. Recovering might be limited to testing the Double Top up to 3467.50. Any higher would likely extend to 3484.25, and potentially up to 3499.00. Nothing requires resolving either way. A labyrinth of Senate and House member headlines make it difficult to trend for any meaningful time without correcting or even reversing. Already having rallied substantially, there's still plenty of room for more upside while still being only an inside day. Follow-through tomorrow might depend on gaining traction this afternoon.

Ranging sideways overnight in positive territory between 3428.00-3446.00 had probed higher momentarily, only to snap back down to the range's 3427.00 lower-end. Bounces a little higher through the 3435.00 open to 3454.00, and then through the afternoon bias environment to 3470.00, each snapped back down to the range's lower-end, too. Even the final hour bounced sharply, albeit shallower up to only 3450.00, but it also snapped back down to 3427.00. Which is where the session closed, bouncing back up to its 3435.00 open. Stimulus and Fed speaker headlines sucked the oxygen out of the room to prevent any organic trending. Their 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracements added after-the-fact predictability. More headlines Wednesday would likely bring more reactions and retracements. Plenty of Fed speakers and high-profile econ reports, not to mention the ongoing quarterly earnings onslaught, keep price action choppy. Breaking under Monday's 3412.00 probably has one opportunity to avoid extending to 3401.50. Having bounced first on Tuesday, 3401.50 probably holds its test, and otherwise extends down to 3383.00 or 3356.00. Already rallying through Wednesday's open (stimulus deal done?) should be rewarded up to 3384.00 or even to 3399.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3344.00 signal would target 3354.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3325.25 signal would target 3312.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3354.50 3344.00 ...would target 3364.50 3354.00 Bias-down: under 3333.50 3325.25 ...would target 3320.50 3312.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE