Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Ranging sideways overnight in positive territory between 3428.00-3446.00 had probed higher momentarily, only to snap back down to the range's 3427.00 lower-end. Bounces a little higher through the 3435.00 open to 3454.00, and then through the afternoon bias environment to 3470.00, each snapped back down to the range's lower-end, too. Even the final hour bounced sharply, albeit shallower up to only 3450.00, but it also snapped back down to 3427.00. Which is where the session closed, bouncing back up to its 3435.00 open. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A post-close stimulus headline triggered a spike down to 3419.00. But Globex gapped back up to the 3435.00 area close, and extended higher through midnight. All of Tuesday's final hour drop was retraced to its 3458.00 high. That's where Europe's opens was greeted, with quite a different opinion. Price action slid sharply to attack prior lows down to 3420.50. Now a bounce is testing yesterday's 3435.00 area close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Stimulus and Fed speaker headlines didn't just compete with organic catalysts yesterday -- they garnered all of the market's focus to ride positive reactions and to dodge negative reactions. The overnight swing suggests today will bring more of the same. And the ongoing reactions to 3428.00 support suggests it will at least break lower, and possibly only temporarily. Now being in proximity to recent lows, an opening thrust setup is possible if the open were to aggressively test a relevant level. Its resolution could be predictive of the morning's direction, if not also for the session. Breaking under Monday's 3412.00 probably has one opportunity to avoid extending to 3401.50, which probably has a better opportunity to avoid extending down to 3383.00 or 3356.00. Rallying back through overnight highs could be rewarded up to 3484.00 or even to 3499.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3439.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3444.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3430.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3425.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3420.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Up the down staircase. Overnight weakness repeated its test of the 3428.00 lows and of the 3425.25 bias-down signal. Bouncing greeted the 3434.00 open at yesterday's cash session close, which was also essentially yesterday's open. Two and now three relevant timing windows sharing the same level suggests a range bound environment. Meanwhile, repeated ongoing bounces from 3428.00 have created a growing likelihood for at least an obligatory break below it. This context means that any further bouncing is a temporary detour, the only question being how high and for how long. Post-open action did bounce, eventually attacking 3458.00 overnight highs to within 3 ticks. Now reacting down is probing under the 3444.00 bias-up signal down to 3437.00, while 3444.00 should otherwise define this bias-up environment's lower-end. Its premature probe before this window begins lapsing requires eventually retracing up to 3444.00. Collapsing prematurely could still collapse through 3428.00, and still be required to retrace up to 3444.00. A detour or the detour, enabling us to anticipate price action turns 1-2 legs out.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3436.75 signal would target 3447.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3427.25 signal would target 3416.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3444.75 3436.75 ...would target 3455.00 3447.00 Bias-down: under 3435.75 3427.75 ...would target 3424.50 3416.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Also: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET. Still testing the 3436.75 bias-up signal at 1:20 AND 1:30 is noN-bias. Not bias-up targeting its bias-up target. Not no-bias likely to hold the bias-up signal as resistance. Either or neither of the alternatives could develop, or part of one or both. The calculable levels are influential, but not predictive. That leaves the environment extra vulnerable to the competing stimulus headlines that are batting the market about. The morning's probe above its bias-up target had only triggered bias-up, but reversed down to its bias-down signal. A spike up neutralized the requirement to retrace the prematurely probed bias-up signal. Meanwhile, the afternoon's bias-up parameters and bias-down signal are also all tested. As overnight action had suggested, intraday volatility is alive and well. Yet intraday action is so far contained within the overnight range. Breaking beyond either end as the bias environment lapses would be likely to extend in that direction.

Choppy overnight action had forecast two likelihoods for Wednesday. First was that volatility would persist. Second was that the ongoing repeated reaction from 3428.00 support would remain relevant. Already bouncing Monday night and intraday Tuesday, the overnight 3458.00 high was once again recalled to support. Multiple intraday bounces also returned to 3428.00, including the final hour's collapse from 3451.00 to 3426.00. If recent overnight and intraday action anticipated any other influences, it was the ongoing stimulus and Fed speaker headlines. Trending will continue to be difficult while the market lies in its pit as the negotiation pendulum swings overhead. If not easily evident by the wide swings that return to the same area, notice also that session opens and closes are clustering in the 3434.00-3435.00 area. Anticipating that intraday bounces would retrace 3428.00 worked well Wednesday. Thursday will assume something similar if the overnight or morning tries to rally. Finally breaking lower could be satisfied at 3416.50, or 3401.50, where a recovery would still be likelier than not. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3440.50 signal would target 3451.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3427.00 signal would target 3416.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3448.50 3440.50 ...would target 3459.00 3451.00 Bias-down: under 3435.00 3427.00 ...would target 3424.50 3416.50 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE