Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's gap-and-pause setup had made Thursday likely to bounce before resuming the decline on Friday. An overnight bounce to 3311.00 was reversed back under Wednesday's low to 3256.00 at Thursday's open, forming an opening thrust setup that resolved bullish. Its reaction rallied to 3334.00 despite being no-bias trending above the 3297.25 bias-up signal. Its required retracement began with the last 60-90 minutes, extending down to 3294.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Post-close earnings reactions extended the late drop to 3264.00 through the Globex open. Relatively narrow consolidating ranging up to 3281.00 ended aft midnight. Another collapse through Europe's opens fell to 3226.00. Its reaction has been sudden, steep, and substantial, retracing the midnight collapse to fresh overnight highs attacking 3291.00. That's 65 points in 5 hours, and still in negative territory. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The gap-and-pause setup had anticipated Thursday's bounce, and now it anticipates Friday's intraday decline. Recall that an overnight bounce was retraced entirely back through Wednesday's lows before launching Thursday's larger -- intraday -- version. Is last night's round trip only a glimpse of things to come, back on the downside? The decline's next lower objective in the 3220.00 area was barely attacked to within 6 points before reversing up so sharply. Meanwhile, probing the 3280.00 earlier Globex low creates potential for the gap-and-go and isolation setups to form. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3295.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3287.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3274.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3270.50 would be likely also to exceed the 3275.00 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Bearish setups in control. The overnight recovery from 3226.00 had attacked 3291.00 pre-open. Its pullback to 3264.00. Reacting up through the open got to 3296.00. Just a little short of yesterday's 3299.75 cash session close. Probing post-open above the 3274.50 earlier Globex high (which my prior Roadmap post misstated) formed a Globex-flip setup. Triggering it through the first 15 minutes would be bullish for the morning. Alternatively, rejecting the probe above 3274.50 at 9:45 would be as bearish as the triggered setup would have been bullish.

Alt-alternatively, 3274.50 was attacked on the way down through it. I'm not relying it to be bearishly influential, and don't have to, anyway -- the bearish gap-and-pause setup already expects trending down today. That setup's bearish expectation help to anticipate the opening bounce's failure.

Their resolution has extended back under Wed-Thu 3260.50 and 3250.50 intraday lows, the minimum structural objective. More so, extending down to 3233.00 is threatening overnight's 3226.00 low, which is also likely to be tested, along with the decline's next lower objective at 3220.00. Meanwhile, the slide may be forming a 5-stage 2-way pattern and the resolution of its trough (a bounce is now attacking 3246.00) could be very predictive for the balance of the day. Nothing requires any bounce or bottom, and the bias-down is renewed.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3261.75 signal would target 3281.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3233.00 signal would target 3220.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3270.00 3261.75 ...would target 3290.00 3281.75 Bias-down: under 3241.00 3233.00 ...would target 3228.50 3220.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Done and out? Attacking the 3226.00 overnight low to within 5 points bottomed for the morning. Bouncing into the noon hour got to 3266.50, holding this afternoon's 3261.75 bias-up signal to trigger no-bias. Either bias signal should define that end of the window if tested. The 3233.00 bias-down signal was just tested by 3 ticks. Its reaction would start to signal momentum reversing up back above 3246.50. No-bias trending that probes under the bias-down signal during the no-bias environment would require being retraced. Be careful because that can be left outstanding through the weekend while a deeper downleg begins. And a deeper downleg can begin without leaving unfinished business if it waits for the bias window to start lapsing. This morning's bearish influences are now moot. Their influence applied only to the morning bias environment. Only the no-bias signal and Friday Factors are influential.

Friday was greeted by a 70-point bounce up to 3291.00 that was reversing from sharply lower overnight lows at 3226.00. Still short of Thursday's close, Wednesday's bearish gap-and-pause setup nevertheless dictating down intraday. The open formed a Globex-flip that didn't trigger bullish, which the gap-and-pause context made unlikely. The morning's collapse to within 5 points of overnight lows was retraced up to 3266.50 during the noon hour. The afternoon's 1-point probe under the Globex low down to 3225.00 was retraced even higher up to 3282.50 through the close. The last half-hour's 49-point short-squeeze was too low, too late, to gain traction. It didn't exceed the noon hour high until after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Then its surge doubled, making it very tempting to sell for a weekend hold-short. Satisfying buying pressure at the afternoon's 3281.75 bias-up target made the late bounce only more bearish. Gapping up anyway Monday above Friday's highs would start to suggest a low may be forming. Or, it could be the start of a more substantial weak-handed rally to correct the week's ongoing decline. Otherwise, next lower objectives include 3220.00, 3000.00, and 3172.00. We'll examine likely paths and their confirming behaviors at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3278.25 signal would target 3293.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3257.25 signal would target 3243.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3286.25 3278.25 ...would target 3301.50 3293.50 Bias-down: under 3265.25 3257.25 ...would target 3251.00 3243.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE