Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's opening surge to 3652.00 was rejected quickly, and substantially, trending down to 3602.50 at the overnight low. Recovering to 3635.50 pre-open repeated the pattern, soon falling to 3592.25 at Monday's morning's low. Still tracking the pattern, another recovery got to 3623.50 into the final hour. Ranging sideways through the 3621.00 cash session close spiked up to 3632.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Rallying sharply into positive territory immediately fulfilled yesterday's potential alternative to retesting its low. Soon, Sunday night's opening surge to 3652.00 was also probed, up to 3661.00. Dipping to 3646.00 through Europe's opens was reversed up sharply and then extended to 3664.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's recovery was free to extend higher despite oversold RSIs left outstanding at its intraday low. Extending higher this morning would all but require gapping up, so rallying overnight. But gapping up doesn't ensure extending higher this morning. Thanks partially to the Relentless Overnight Trending setup that has formed, this morning's direction can be determined quickly by the open's trending, if any can be distinguished. Recall that 3663.00 -- now being tested -- begins the room for noise described previously for finally breaking the Pfizer/Moderna highs, which resumes the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle that had formed from the Sep/Oct highs, targeting 3750.00. Whether reacting down from testing 3663.00, or plowing through it, the morning would likely trend in that direction.

First 15 minutes signaled traction. The 3664.50 overnight high's reaction down touched 3650.00 at the open. Snapping back up formed discernible trending through the first 15 minutes. This confirmed that reinforcements had arrived to extend the bullish Relentless Overnight Trending. And the first hour did extend higher up to 3675.50. That's one of two likely objectives to this morning's renewed bias-up signal. Reacting down to 3659.50 is testing sell signal. A deeper reversal can't be dismissed, but reinforcing the overnight trend suggested that this morning's bias environment will behave bullishly. That makes this reaction down likely only temporary and weak-handed. Resuming the rally would be triggered above 3667.25. At least to retest the high, with potential up to the 3679.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap extension.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3671.50 signal would target 3679.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3654.75 signal would target 3644.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3673.50 3671.50 ...would target 3681.00 3679.00 Bias-down: under 3656.50 3654.75 ...would target 3645.75 3644.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Holding up. The first hour's surge up to 3675.50 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to the open's 3650.25 low, and held. Held through the bias environment. And held through the noon hour. That's a position of strength. A position of strength does not preclude a dip. It makes that dip likely to recover. And often the dip stretches the rubber band, to snap back up into a new upleg. A dip has room to test this afternoon's 3655.00 bias-down signal during this afternoon's no-bias environment. Similarly, the bias environment's upper-end should be defined by its 3670.50 bias-up signal. Which is now being probed by 3 points. That's no-bias trending, and requires being retraced if still being probed when the bias window is lapsing. Extending higher at any time would be attracted up to 3679.00. Not for it being this afternoon's bias-up target, but for the inputs that contributed it to being the bias-up target. Dipping prematurely without recovering could test the 3638.00 gap-to-gap retrace before even threatening the trend is reversing down.

Relentless Overnight Trending had probed above last Tuesday evening's 3655.00 high to 3661.00, which the gap up exceeded, too. Uptrending through the first 15 minutes signaled reinforcements had arrived to all marginalize sellers. Higher highs through the afternoon up to 3677.50 were ambushed by Covid stimulus headlines that reacted back down to 3655.50, consolidating through the close. The headline reaction derailed a credible attempt at extending higher -- probably sharply higher before the close. Its outsized knee-jerk reaction was likely exacerbated for originating so near the close. Often the reaction will probe or extend lower overnight and/or the next morning. Probing lower or not, I would expect at least another bounce from Tuesday's headline reaction. Only 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of its drop was retraced before the close, and not yet the minimum 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} that is common. Maintaining a gap up Wednesday to and through 3668.00-3669.00 would likely develop into the rally leg that was ambushed Tuesday. Not absorbing initial weakness could extend down to lower prior highs at 3636.00 and 3631.00 while still maintaining the rally's momentum. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3674.00 signal would target 3684.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3651.75 signal would target 3638.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3676.00 3674.00 ...would target 3686.00 3684.00 Bias-down: under 3653.50 3651.75 ...would target 3639.75 3638.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE