Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's open immediately repeated the overnight dip, which had extended Tuesday's late headline reaction from 3677.00 down to 3642.50. Reacting back up triggered no-bias, putting into play a test of its 3674.00 bias-up signal. The morning's rally stopped 10 points short before correcting down to 3655.00. The afternoon rally got to within almost 2 points, while gaining PM traction. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's rally hasn't extended any higher, other than to momentarily pierce the 3674.00 bias-up signal by a couple of ticks. Reacting down through midnight briefly probed under the 3660.25 bias-down signal by 3 points. That was soon recovered back up to yesterday's 3668.00 cash session close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS, I.E. THE BIAS ENVIRONMENT. Yesterday's PM traction setup formed by exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour high, and then entering the final hour higher. Its influence makes this morning's bias environment likely to trend up, however shallowly or sharply. Discernible uptrending through the first 15 minutes would help to confirm, while downtrending through the open would suggest the setup's influence has been overcome. Overnight action can't be entirely reliable to forecast intraday behavior, but last night's pattern is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Its relatively sideways range, and also its ineffectual pessimism -- avoiding positive territory but not extending down -- conserves energy that is only waiting to be unleashed by something like uptrending through the first 15 minutes. Ignoring the upside influences to instead trade weaker this morning could be satisfied by backing-and-filling down to 3650.50. But any lower for any duration starts making 3535.00 and lower likely.

I'm away from the screens through this morning's bias environment. Look for the afternoon bias parameters as usual at noon ET.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3681.00 signal would target 3692.00 BIAS-DOWN: under 3670.50 signal would target 3660.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3682.25 3681.00 ...would target 3693.25 3692.00 Bias-down: under 3671.50 3670.50 ...would target 3661.25 3660.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

But probing lower anyway. Surging into the morning bias environment had attacked 3680.00. The bias environment didn't trend higher, instead having to react down to 3669.00 on a negative stimulus headline. But the bullish bias enabled a recovery up to 3679.00 through noon. But that has been the extent of this morning's rally, and of today's rally so far. Trending back down through the noon hour retraced the headline's reaction, now attacking 3666.00. Extending down is despite this afternoon's bias-down barely avoided triggering under 3670.50. So, its 3660.25 bias-down target is not in-play. Probing under the bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is no-bias trending that will require being retraced to the bias-down signal. That hasn't prevented extended down, and the no-bias signal's timing keeps the downside door open.

Wednesday's PM traction setup was likely to influence Thursday morning's bias environment bullishly. Bullish behavior was likely to be very productive thanks to the recent cumulative ineffectual pessimism. Thursday's unchanged open at 3667.00 did extend quickly to attack 3680.00. But the bullish influences were applied to recovering negative knee-jerk reactions to a stimulus headline, no-bias downtrending, and then to a vaccine headline. The last swing came from fresh highs at 3682.00, down to fresh lows at 3655.00 that was recovered up to 3671.00 through the close. Like Wednesday, Thursday's ineffectual pessimism and PM traction are potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and likely to influence the next morning's bias environment. Like Tuesday, Thursday's late-afternoon headline could probe lower overnight and/or intraday first. Headline reaction follow-through isn't necessary, already having been corrected by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} and then also holding a retest of the initial reaction's low. And before ambushed by Thursday afternoon's vaccine headline, probing fresh highs had suggested the market is optimistic ahead of the morning's Employment Situation report. If Thursday's last-minute optimism ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report proves contrarian, then a reaction down has room to 3635.00 without even beginning to threaten upside momentum. And room down to 3618.00 without beginning to threaten the trend reversing down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3677.00 signal would target 3692.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3659.00 signal would target 3646.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3678.75 3677.00 ...would target 3693.75 3692.00 Bias-down: under 3660.75 3659.00 ...would target 3648.50 3646.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE