Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The rally had everything in its favor going into Friday, having reversed an overnight probe under Thursday's lows down to 3699.00 to probe new highs up to 3723.00. But the ongoing pattern of failed gaps up repeated its influence, exacerbated by Friday Factors. Sliding to the afternoon's 3677.00 low was interrupted by a bounce to 3702.50. The later low was followed by a surge back up to 3712.00, as expectations for a weekend stimulus agreement were exacerbated by quad witch expiration. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Movement, but still no signed stimulus package by Sunday night's Globex open. And now December's rally has been retraced entirely. Blipping-up to within 1 tick of the 3724.25 bias-up target reacted back down immediately. Ranging narrowly sideways through midnight was supported by the 3698.25 bias-down signal. Already breaking lower into Europe's opens retraced the rest of Friday's final hour surge down to its 3682.50 origin. But no recovery from there this time, as a collapse fell to 3596.00, reversing down 128 points from the open's blip-up. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Pavlov to the rescue? More than a week of conditioning to buy intraday dips will be put to the test today. Another 1-2 bullish influences may also influence intraday price action. One is that trend changes aren't historically associated with expiration. Another could exploit a mixed bullish WedEX setup from Wednesday and Friday afternoons by trending up through this morning's open. Testing 3614.00-3621.00 post-open but exiting the open above 3611.00 could be enough to at least contain the damage and start accumulating for another upleg, let alone to avoid extending the overnight drop down to 3574.00. Meanwhile, holding a post-open test of the 3637.00 area would help to isolate the overnight downleg. But today must still recover 3666.00 to start signaling that momentum is already reversing back up, and that one more higher high is in-play at 3753.00. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Opening bounce fails. The open's bounce from 3652.00 attacked 3671.00 and started dipping as the first 15 minutes lapsed. No discernible trending in that, but the reaction has extended down sharply to 3625.00. A relevant support at 3635.50-3637.00 was overlapped by a series of legs that has since developed. Despite probing lower, 3635.50-3637.00 is now being tested as resistance. Holding this test into noon would suggest that today's downside is done. Actually reversing the momentum back up must recover 3646.00, and reversing the trend up must also recover 3660.00-3666.00 through a relevant timing window. Extending the decline would next target 3611.00-3615.00. That would be the next opportunity for the pullback's bottom, but not yet with any degree of confidence.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3666.00 signal would target 3677.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3649.25 signal would target 3638.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3675.00 3666.00 ...would target 3686.00 3677.00 Bias-down: under 3658.00 3649.25 ...would target 3647.50 3638.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Somewhat of a paradigm shift.

Critical support at 3635.50-3637.00 was thoroughly tested as support. While probing it down to 3625.00, 3635.50-3637.00 became resistance, proving its influence. So, recovering it when the bias environment finished lapsing indicated that the morning's downleg was absorbed.

That's only the first step to reversing a trend -- ending it. But that didn't equate to a buy signal. Extending the bounce was still likely to test 3666.00. But that became this afternoon's bias-up signal, which triggered. Its 3777.00 bias-up target is already met, and exceeded to 3690.00.

That's only the second step to reversing a trend -- extending. Meanwhile, the market remains well into negative territory, with the close approaching. The 3683.25 gap-to-gap resistance is being probed, along with higher prior lows from Friday's range.

Maintain pullback limits and/or stay away from sell signals, and the rally could become aggressive during the final hour. Otherwise, reversing down isn't likely, but a pullback has room to be duplicated today.

Monday was greeted by Sunday night's collapse that had retraced December's three weeks of rallying back down to 3596.00. Bouncing through the open up to 3671.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the overnight drop. Its reaction back down to 3625.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce. Trending back up through both bias environments up to 3694.00 ended the intraday bounce. A temporary dip to 3672.00 was recovered through the 3685.50 cash session close. Whatever its degree or duration, at least two influences had made the drop unlikely to begin a new downtrend. The first was its origin, since expirations aren't historically associated with trend reversals. The second was more than a week spent conditioning participants to buy intraday dips. Monday's open was back above week-old prior lows. The post-open low was recovered from probing its prior lows. Isolating both intraday lows and the overnight low does form a basis for launching a new upleg. But the intraday bounce didn't gain traction and positive territory never recovered. So the pattern remains vulnerable to another downdraft. A gap up maintained above 3691.25 (which is also Tuesday morning's bias-up signal) would be the lowest proxy for suggesting that stronger sponsorship had arrived to extend the recovery. Actually triggering bias-up would then be required, too. Meanwhile, this being a holiday-shortened week, the door to launching a deeper dip starts closing after Tuesday morning, so rallying into the noon hour would be bullish. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3692.25 signal would target 3702.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3675.50 signal would target 3665.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3702.00 3692.25 ...would target 3711.75 3702.00 Bias-down: under 3685.00 3675.50 ...would target 3674.75 3665.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE