Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Already trending up overnight from Monday's 3765.00 close broke higher at Tuesday's 3799.00 open, and trended up through the morning to attack 3836.00. That being the basis for a Gap-and-pause setup, the balance of the session complied by only hovering sideways at the morning's highs. This are already fulfilled the minimum reward for absorbing Sunday night's test of 3656.00: completely retracing that leg's 3823.50 origin. Only a last-minute effort broke lower to 3814.00 before snapping back up through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's late snap back up firmed further into the Globex open, and soon probed above intraday highs to 3839.00. Several dips before midnight held the bias-up signal as support. Rallying into Europe's opens got to 3843.50 before reacting back down again. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight action has no relevance to yesterday's Gap-and-pause setup being followed today by a pullback day. However shallow or aggressive the pullback, the rally should resume no earlier than this afternoon, and no later than tomorrow afternoon. A prominent candidate for the pullback day is the 3781.00 Mon-Tue gap-to-gap proxy. That's the singular representation of a 3778.00-3786.25 range. Another candidate is 3742.00, before suggesting a more substantial downleg underway. A pullback could be shallower than either of these candidates -- even if a bearish Globex-flip setup is triggered, which is close to forming. And discernible uptrending through the first-15 minutes would start to suggest the rally is already resuming. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Pullback day in-play. There are no targets for a pullback day. Only candidates that could produce reactions up. It was reasonable to assume that post-open strength would fail and could be sold. Now it's reasonable to assume that reacting back up from a candidate's test earlier in the day is likely to resolve back down. So, this morning's 3825.25 bias-up signal ultimately held as resistance, putting into plan an offsetting test of its 3812.75 bias-down signal. Fluctuating choppily around the bias-up signal through the first hour nevertheless broke lower. The grace period barely triggered, but the bias-down signal was being tested at 10:30 anyway. Probing under the bias-down signal to 3808.00 was several minutes too late to invalidate the no-bias. Now a bounce up to 3823.00 is underscoring that being a no-bias window, its 3812.75 bias-down signal defines the range's lower-end.

Got all that? Now comes the important point, which brings it all together:

If not for being a pullback day, we would entertain a buy signal since the downside objective is neutralized. Instead, still being early in the pullback day, we're expecting this bounce to fail. And for lower lows when the bias window is lapsing.

Just in case, I'm willing to battle a potential whipsaw above a 3826.50 buy signal. But nothing currently invalidates our expectation for lower lows.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS BIAS-UP: above 3836.00 signal would target 3844.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3820.00 signal would target 3812.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Pullback day in question. Rejecting this morning's 3825.25 bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. The 3834.25 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks, which is 2 ticks too shallow to require an offsetting test of the bias-down target, too. And the bias-down signal was probed down to 3808.00. The balance of the bias window trended back up to attack 3825.25. The noon hour trended higher to 3833.00. And now -- too late to trigger -- the 3836.00 bias-up signal is being tested by 1 point. The pullback day can end early, like in the afternoon. But already resuming yesterday's rally would be premature. And now the afternoon's no-bias window suggests the bias-up signal will hold. If testing 3836.00 is the window's upper-end, then it can reverse back down. Simultaneously overbought RSIs here require any reversal to be retraced eventually. But back under 3830.50 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Tuesday's gap up had extended higher through the morning to 3835.00, then hovered through the close to form a gap-and-pause setup. The pullback day it forecast seemed on-track as flat-to-higher overnight was rejected by sliding sharply through Wednesday's open. But the pullback day only bounced through both bias windows to test Tuesday's highs up to 3840.00. Not very pullback-ish -- not even with its late 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace back to morning lows -- but still preventing the rally from resuming. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, since only the afternoon bias window exit probed its prior window's high. So, rallying Thursday morning is all but required to begin by gapping up. Meanwhile, a pullback day can persist through the following morning, not just weakness but probing Wednesday's low. Not already indicated to gap up Thursday would be likelier to probe fresh pullback lows. Regardless, the rally remains likely to resume at some point on Thursday. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3834.00 signal would target 3847.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3814.50 signal would target 3805.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.