Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's 3914.50 high had reversed down overnight to 3861.00, the lowest lows in more than 2 weeks. Entering or exiting the open above the recent 3885.00 low would have isolated the overnight extension and allowed a durable recovery. Delaying its recovery only doomed to failure the afternoon's 3899.00 high. Trending down through the bias window exit slid to 3872.00 through the close Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon's 3901.00 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initial narrow choppiness included a brief probe under yesterday's intraday low down to 3868.00 at the bias-down signal. Reacting up through midnight rallied 28 points to 3896.00 at the bias-up target. The bias-up signal's effort to hold as support gave way at Europe's opens, in a big way, collapsing down to 3840.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday repeated the pattern of an intraday recovery that only reaches relevant resistance, which isn't accumulative and only chips away further at support. Yesterday's rally above 3885.00 from a position of weakness had stretched the rubber band, which the afternoon's slide only began snapping back down. Monday's weakness didn't gain traction, but it set a distributive tone for a week that is now facing Fed Chair Powell's 2-day congressional testimony arrives. Meanwhile, pricing has changed, and isolating the decline's next lower target of 3853.50 through the open could start to unwind the event's defensive posturing. That bullish path would be credible, but it's always likelier for the intraday crowd to try duplicating overnight trending, especially overnight downtrending. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Intraday crowd gets its post-open slide. Although greeting the open back above 3853.50 could have isolated its overnight test, that was unlikely because the intraday crowd usually wants to duplicate a strong overnight trend. And that duplication plunged under the 3849.00 open down to 3805.00. Fed Chair Powell's remarks didn't indicate any policy change. Reacting up was testing 3833.00 as resistance at 10:15, and has extended up to 3847.00. Exceeding obligatory resistance at the opening print could extend to the 3859.00-3861.00 gap-to-gap proxy, just above the 3857.50 bias-down target. Powell's favorable remarks are now discounted, and he's still talking. In other words, the reaction up isn't required to extend any higher. Back under 3824.00-3827.00 into the noon hour would keep alive downside momentum. The next lower objectives would be 3781.00, and then 3766.00.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS BIAS-UP: above 3857.50 signal would target 3866.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3835.25 signal would target 3824.25 NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Holding pattern. The open's steep plunge down to 3805.00 reacted up almost as sharply to 3864.50. Trending back down through the noon hour to 3827.50 ultimately triggered no-bias. The 3857.50 bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end if tested -- it's being attacked up to 3856.00. Nothing requires this pattern to try trending again today. Attention on Powell's morning testimony often drains leverage from the market. Especially when another morning of the same lies ahead. That said, trending would be credible for extending if attempted, within the bias parameters' confines. A bigger recovery could contradict the recent almost daily pattern of intraday recoveries not recovering any relevant levels.

Monday night's 35-point slide to 3840.00 was duplicated by Tuesday's opening slide to 3805.00. The morning's bounce up to 3864.50 held the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap proxy. A noon hour correction was recovered back up to the gap-to-gap, for which there was no bearish reason, so the recovery extended up to 3892.00. Its reaction drifted back down to 3874.00 through the close. Tuesday's bounce contained multiple Fibonacci correlations to session lows, so it might not have been the product of strong-handed buyers. The bounce peaked at a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back to last week's intraday highs, which is a common corrective peak. All PM Traction elements formed, but all in negative territory, so rallying Wednesday morning still requires gapping up. Not already gapping up Wednesday could at least correct much of Tuesday's recovery, and there's not much room for that before resuming the decline. The afternoon bias window exit contained a very reliable buy setup. Be sure to review its features we discussed during Market Wrap. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS BIAS-UP: above 3888.00 signal would target 3901.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3866.00 signal would target 3857.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.