Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's final hour 60-point collapse had been retraced through Europe's opens up to 3898.00. Already retracing greeted ADP at 3875.00, and its miss collapsed through Tuesday's 3866.00 lows. Being a precursor to Friday's payrolls report exacerbated the ADP reaction to support at Fri-Mon's 3833.50 gap-to-gap proxy. Bouncing back up to 3866.00 only reacted down coming out of the morning bias window, extending down to 3813.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday afternoon's decline extended without delay, already bouncing off of 3777.50 before midnight. RSIs diverged negatively upon probing 2 points back into positive territory at 3819.00 through Europe's opens. Now its reaction back down to 3789.00 is trying to hold. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's close was a compelling hold-short, with the leg's downside potential targeting 3777.00. That's already met overnight, and its reaction already probed back into positive territory. Having probed yesterday's lows overnight, exiting the open any higher could form either of two bullish setups, Isolation and.or Globex-flip. The setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, and even if neither threatens to form, just opening in negative territory at this stage of the pattern could retest overnight lows. Reaction to Jobless Claims before the open could suggest yesterday's ADP reaction was exacerbated, or else exacerbate it further. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

And bullish Globex-flip ignored. Greeting the open at 3814.00 surged to attack 3836.00. Testing its pullback limit through the first 15 minutes qualified the Globex-flip setup as bullish. The bullish Isolation setup would need to dismiss the first 1-2 bars that pierced under yesterday's 3817.00 cash session close.

Maybe that's all moot. Exiting the first 15 minutes above the 3828.25 bias-up signal didn't prevent collapsing back down to 3788.00. The 3808.25 bias-down signal triggered, but its 3797.00 bias-down target was being overlapped and not renewing the signal.

Bias parameters overrule everything. The bullish Globex-flip fully formed, so its influence can't become as bearish as it would have been bullish. The bias-down target is not outstanding, but the 3808.25 bias-down signal should define the window's upper-end.

Tell that to the current probe above it up to 3826.50. Like no-bias trending, it requires retracing 3808.25 -- unless the bias window lapses above its 3841.00 bias-UP target. Could the post-open test of 3793.50 have sufficed for yesterday's follow-through? Could the Globex-flip's bullish influence still provide fresh post-open highs? Back under 3814.50 would start to signal this bounce is failing, and targeting 3777.00.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3841.00 signal would target 3850.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3825.25 signal would target 3811.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Sharply lower. Swings are getting wider. And they're resolving down. A longer-term chart perspective of higher highs and higher lows remains intact -- for now. We discussed last Saturday that the 2-week decline into last weekend had expended a lot of selling pressure without threatening the uptrend, producing Mnoday's sharp rally. But Monday's sharp rally attracted no new sponsorship. And its prior low at 3785.00 130 points lower is now being probed down to 3723.00. The last big bounce was last Tue-Wed, rallying 120 points from their 3805.00 origin, and still resolving down. Last night's 58-point recovery reversed down sharply and still recovered to fresh highs at 3842.00. The reversal was surprising after having triggered a bullish Globex-flip, but the setup was fulfilled by entering the noon hour at fresh post open highs. That has reversed down 119 points, breaking a Bear Flag that is now testing its 3727.00 and possibly lower. And that starts to threaten the uptrend's higher highs and higher lows.

Recovering the 3777.50 overnight low up to 3836.00 was only the beginning of Thursday's wide swings. Its post-open 48-point reaction down reacted up 54 points by noon to 3842.00.  Which paled in comparison to the 122-point collapse to the afternoon lows. Entering the final hour back at 3777.00 had plenty of time to recover what had been the decline's next target. But ranging sideways through the close only held its resistance. Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs is unfinished business left outstanding at the low requires an eventual retest. It won't be difficult if Friday's open isn't already rallying. As I described in the afternoon's Roadmap update here, and in the post-close Market Wrap linked below, the uptrending channel from last Fall's rally is being threatened. And fresh lows, with refueled sellers, an attraction outstanding below, and high-profile news catalyst to be absorbed, all tend to explode in importance with two days of illiquidity just hours away. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS BIAS-UP: above 3789.00 signal would target 3806.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3748.00 signal would target 3733.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.