Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Recovering the 3777.50 overnight low up to 3836.00 was only the beginning of Thursday's wide swings. Its post-open 48-point reaction down reacted up 54 points by noon to 3842.00.  Which paled in comparison to the 122-point collapse to the afternoon lows. Entering the final hour back at 3777.00 had plenty of time to recover what had been the decline's next target. But ranging sideways through the close only held its resistance. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Post-close price action immediately began breaking lower. The bias-down target was tested by 2 points down to 3731.00. Its reaction recovered the cash session close up to 3770.00 through midnight. A shallower dip through Europe's opens has also recovered entirely, and now more so -- extending up to yesterday's 3776.00 highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Fresh overnight highs, and retesting yesterday's high overnight, isn't a trend reversal. Overnight action doesn't even qualify for making that signal, not until its effort overlaps the intraday first 15 minutes. And unless the recovery has extended any higher to change its current sideways range, a favorable knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report would be too-late-to-break and require being retraced. Yesterday afternoon's description of the bearish scenario hasn't triggered, and we'll inspect it at greater length during tomorrow's Saturday Review. Meanwhile, Friday is being greeted still orbiting the recent trend's fresh lows and yesterday's oversold RSIs, and an impending high-profile news catalyst with two days of illiquidity impending after that. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Payrolls reaction is reversed back into the earlier range. The Employment Situation report was greeted by relatively narrow fluctuation around the overnight range's upper-end up to 3782.50. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 3756.00 was recovered almost as quickly, but much more substantially, printing 3814.50 pre-open. The sideways overnight range's breakout was too-late-to-break and likely to retrace the overnight range. In fact, the initial knee-jerk reaction was attacked back down to 3760.00. Now another bounce up to 3794.50 has reacted back down to the payrolls report's initial knee-jerk reaction low. Post-open tests of both bias-up parameters have held to trigger no-bias, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters at 3748.00 and 3733.00. That would be in the orbit of oversold RSIs at yesterday's 3720.50 low which still require retest. And that would be fresh lows, soon after sellers once again having refueled, with two days of illiquidity getting exponentially closer every minute. This is dancing dangerously close to the precipice, and probably doesn't reverse up gently, if at all.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3768.50 signal would target 3787.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3747.00 signal would target 3732.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

The other end of the woods, still not out of them. Rejecting post-open tests of both bias-up parameters had put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters, which were tested down to 3728.50. Now its reaction has fully retraced the 3808.00 post-open high, probing it up to 3820.50. So it's not just noise. But the probe above 3808.00 began with the bias window entry. Exiting the bias window back under 3808.00 (not just overlapping it) would isolate the probe above it. More so, it could serve as a rubber band to snap back down through the close It's a long way back down to the lows. Oversold RSIs at yesterday's low remain outstanding, but don't require being tested today. The closing price will be meaningful input to helping determine whether a more durable bottom is forming.

A wide overnight range was already chipping away at its 3771.00 upper-end when Friday's Employment Situation report triggered a surge up to 3814.50. Being too-late-to-break within 60-90 minutes of the open, the morning reversed the pre-open 45-point probe of positive territory into an almost equidistant 41-point probe negative as the bias window began lapsing. Although not yet touching Thursday's low, the balance of the session rallied 121 points up to 3850.00 into the close. More patience among Friday morning's buyers could have allowed actually retesting Thursday's 3720.50 low. Friday's overall pattern would have formed a bullish Pivot Reversal. Instead, the session was almost an inside day, probing Thursday's 3842.00 high very late, and only temporarily. Meanwhile, buyers expended a lot of energy. Friday's 3838.00 close was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace back up to Monday's last optimistic high. This is common resistance, much easier to exceed when allowed time intraday to absorb backing-and-filling. Closing at it requires gapping up Monday to indicate that reinforcements have arrived. And that only extends what may still be only a corrective bounce up to3866.00 or 3883.00. Friday afternoon's rally did create room to absorb fresh selling pressure without yet further damaging the chart. Reversing down out of the weekend isn't assured of extending the decline. We'll describe likely paths and levels at Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3852.25 signal would target 3866.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3829.25 signal would target 3811.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.