Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday afternoon's bullish PM Traction setup wasn't responsible for Thursday's gap up to 3914.50, or for the post-open surge to 3925.00. But absorbing the bias window's dip to 3912.00, and reversing up to 3945.00 through the morning, was produced by the setup's influence. Rejecting a blip-up to 3949.00 and ranging sideways through the afternoon formed a gap-and-pause setup. Dipping to 3925.00 into the close retraced only 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to earlier lows. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A couple of bounces up to 3937.00 through midnight were retraced back down to 3925.00. The second retrace was the start of a downleg through Europe's opens. It has been consolidating at Wednesday's lower prior highs down to 3901.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Today's pullback day is getting an early start after being signaled by yesterday's gap-and-pause setup. It's probably helped by yesterday having neutralized longstanding unfinished business back to the prior high's 3947.75 Globex extreme, without creating any new unfinished business to replace it. So the gap-and-pause's pullback day is the only bullish context to suggest today's drop must recover. That, and trend extremes historically don't often accompany mechanical events like expiration, or even rollover. Regardless, until signaled otherwise, the market is probably on defense today, at least backing-and-filling, with no particular downside limit or attraction. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Pullback day underway. Gapping down to 3913.00 ranged widely through the open. Its blip-down to 3905.00 was reversed up, and probing back above the 3921.25 bias-down signal attacked 3924.00. But this is a pullback day, making the bias-down signal likely to trigger, and its resistance likelier to hold. The gap-to-gap proxy was tested while RSIs deteriorated. Its reaction retraced the earlier 3905.00 low. Now another bounce is testing the gap-to-gap's 3918.50 lower-end. Originating from only touching the prior low suggests it is only obligatory, i.e. a temporary bounce. And this is still a pullback day. Otherwise, the bias-down target was probed too late to renew the bias-down signal, so no lower objective is necessarily in-play.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3925.25 signal would target 3933.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3909.75 signal would target 3897.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Pullback day remains under pressure. This morning's wide choppy range held three tests of 3905.00, bouncing to 3924.00 in between. The noon hour probed a slightly higher high up to 3926.00. It was isolated by retracing the noon hour's 3917.00 entry as the noon hour started lapsing. But momentum hasn't extended down. Not, yet. This is now a no-bias window. Fresh post open highs aren't likely since that would require probing the bias-up signal. Exiting the bias window nearer to the 3909.75 bias-down signal would find it easier to start sliding into the weekend. Friday mornings and afternoons often -- but not always -- have two different characters. If applied today, then this afternoon should trend. That's still likelier to be down, but be careful if short.

Friday's pullback day was more of a pullback night, already testing Wednesday's lower prior highs overnight. The drop to 3901.00 was retraced enough to range widely through Friday morning between 3905.00-3924.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon filled the gap back to Thursday's 3927.00 close. A last-minute break higher probed positive territory up to 3938.50. Thursday's gap-and-pause setup had made Friday likely to back-and-fill. The entire point of a pullback day is for the rally to find stronger-handed sponsorship at lower levels, since they weren't there Thursday afternoon. Exiting the weekend in rally mode would be credible for already resuming the rally. Gapping up Monday would suggest they're attracted now. Otherwise, the pullback day will repeat -- albeit not necessarily back to Friday's lows, and not necessarily for the entire day. Spending Friday in negative territory qualified only essentially as a pullback day. Being a Friday, its nominal intraday strength was likely weak-handed, overcome only by gapping up. We'll outline the likely paths and levels for either path at the Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS BIAS-UP: above 3945.00 signal would target 3955.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3920.00 signal would target 3911.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.