Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events followed overnight weakness that had extended through the morning down to 3925.00. The near relentless selling since Tuesday's gap up tested 3971.00 had apparently overly discounted expectations. The policy statement's knee-jerk reaction surged sharply, and surged again up to 3973.50. The final hour dipped down to 3956.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The intraday rally quickly resumed up to new highs at 3978.50. Complexity in its formation qualified as a Globex trend extreme that requires intraday retest, often the same day. We'll see about today -- yesterday's close was retraced by midnight. Then collapsing through Europe's opens down to 3940.00 retraced much of the FOMC reaction while bonds broke sharply to fresh lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Despite Wednesday's close at trend highs giving the WedEX setup an actively bullish basis, gapping down back under relevant support today serves by proxy to change that basis to passively bearish. The setup still needs input Friday to potentially forecast Monday trending. And gapping down is also undercutting yesterday's bullish PM Traction setup, proving why it is less reliable when forming amid FOMC events. That said, I'll still expect a bullish morning influence if its first 15 minutes can trend up, and trend up enough. Enough, because rejecting the overnight probe of yesterday's high may be forming bearish Isolation and Globex-flip setups. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Bearish context, but so far only ranging. Last night's Globex extreme is looking less and less likely to be retested today. Pre-open selling extended down into the 3931.00-3933.00 area that can't tolerate another intraday retest. And then it was retested post-open even deeper. It's test wasn't isolated, so it's likely to break lower. Apparently not immediately, since price action has only fluctuated choppily back up to 3945.00. But at least eventually lower, since the bearish Globex-flip setup triggered, which expects lower lows this morning. Globex-flip also expects resistance tests to hold. Two tests of 3943.50 have reacted down, but now a third is probing higher. It's still likely to fail, probably from one end or the other of the 3947.00-3953.50 proxy gap.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS BIAS-UP: above 3955.50 signal would target 3966.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3943.00 signal would target 3931.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Globex-flip flipped. This morning's tests of 3931.00-3933.00 held through relevant timing windows to avoid putting into play any lower objectives -- potentially down to the 3896.00 area. But their tests weren't rejected in time to create a firm base that launches a durable upleg. Despite the bearish Globex-flip, the bias window ranged flat-to-higher up to 3950.00, and the noon hour broke higher to 3959.00. The noon hour also collapsed back down to 3936.00. This afternoon's no-bias signal triggered, and currently another bounce is testing 3951.50. Retesting the 3931.00-3933.00 area would chip away further at its support, and only further ensure eventually breaking under it. Unless this afternoon's 3955.50 bias-up signal is exceeded through a relevant timing window, bounces continue to be considered only temporary.

The 3978.50 overnight high's Globex extreme requires intraday retest, but that didn't prevent trending back down overnight to 3932.00. On the flip-side, triggering a bearish Globex-flip didn't make the morning downtrend any deeper. But revisiting 3931.00-3933.00 had doomed to failure the morning's bounce up to 3959.00, which resolved down to 3900.50 through the close. Rejecting the overnight probe above intraday highs also triggered a bearish Isolation setup. Its reward is to retrace the current upleg's origin -- that's 3710.50. Not necessarily on the current reaction down, but it would be that much more bearish to first neutralize the 3978.50 Globex trend extreme's retest to leave no unfinished business above. Meanwhile, the next lower attraction is the 3896.00 area, under the obligatory support that attracted Thursday's lows. If neutralized overnight or Friday morning, its inflection would likely resolve substantially in one direction or the other into the weekend-- either extending the decline or retracing much of it. Expiration's wild card influence would be a significant influence, along with the usual Friday Factors. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3916.25 signal would target 3929.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3898.00 signal would target 3888.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.