Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's 15-point gap up to 3914.00 ranged widely through the open between 3907.00-3924.00, and eventually extended up to 3931.50 to the morning bias window's high. Earlier lows were tested, retested, and re-retested down tot 3903.50 through the afternoon bias window. Its lapse coincided with a collapse down to 3877.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Not much until moments ago. Choppy flat-to-higher ranging qualified as sideways, making a breakout attempt 60-90 minutes pre-open qualify as a too late to break setup. Now a collapse from near the overnight range's upper-end is testing yesterday's low, so far by 7 points back and probing Friday's 3875.00 low by 4 points. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The ongoing dueling patterns of big drawdown, and of their complete recoveries, is starting to slip in favor of sellers. One tends to outlast the other -- distance has grown for buying to qualify as a big rescue, and it will only be harder if yesterday's bearish PM Traction influences this morning's bias window. Overnight suggests as much, too. Not yet retracing Wednesday's reversal into negative territory that had begun only after exiting its 3:20 proxy window suggests it wasn't just a momentary detour. It's probably too late to simply gap up into a durable rally, so today's most bullish scenario probably doesn't begin until first flushing out every drop of selling pressure well under Friday's 3875.00 low. Then a stretched rubber band would become vulnerable to a sudden, steep, and substantial snap back up. Not stretching it enough before bouncing would be suspicious as patient sellers. And stretching it too much could snap its elasticity, and forego a snap back up. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Stability wasn't strength. Ranging relatively narrowly sideways overnight off of yesterday's 3877.50 low seemed to have stabilized yesterday's afternoon-long decline. That shouldn't have been confused with being a bottom, because attractive prices would have already attracted overwhelming buyers. Already breaking lower overnight before the 60-90 minute pre-open window was extended to 3858.50. Fluctuating widely post-open from under the bias-down target to back above its bias-down signal did trigger a late bias-down. Now yesterday's bearish PM Traction setup appears to be influencing the bias window sharply lower to attack 3843.00. The setup has had its difficulties this week, but it succeeds by exiting the bias window lower than its entry, absorbing any interim bounces no matter how high. Last week's bearish Isolation setup already put into play a retest of the 3710.50 prior low, for which 3811.00 can serve as proxy. Recovering 3860.25 could offer an earlier opportunity to avoid both.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3874.00 signal would target 3888.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3854.75 signal would target 3839.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR THE LAST 90 MINUTES, MARKET WRAP WILL BE RECORDED THIS EVENING. 3889.00 was being tested 3 minutes prior to yesterday's cash session close, a relevant bar. It overlapped Tuesday's late higher prior lows, which is relevant resistance. These two instances make a third's test predictive if coinciding with a relevant timing window. And it was being tested within 3 minutes of this afternoon's 1:20 bias timing window. This alone makes its resistance likely to produce at least a pullback. Even likelier when combined with the past and with the future -- already rallying 58 points off the low, and Biden about to speak. Now attacking 3876.00 and probably targeting a test of the 3874.00 bias-up signal down to 3870.50. Sideways ranging through the close or resuming the rally are both possible resolutions. But the weekend's illiquidity is only getting closer, and sellers aren't marginalized. There continues to be great vulnerability to retracing the entire recovery.

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3911.00 signal would target 3923.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3892.50 signal would target 3877.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.