VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Day Trading Pre-Open Strategy - 7:27 AM
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Previously : Globex's rally extended post-open to gap up above 3860 and extend to 3880, isolating Tue's 3839 test by proxy. Probing overnight highs wasn't maintained throughout the first 15 minutes, enabling 10:00's econ headlines to react back down to overnight lows at 3836. But synthetic bias-down was rejected by exiting the bias window back above its 3866 bias-up target. Its 3896 high was reversed into and out of FOMC Minutes to 3850.
Overnight price points : The 3860-3884 bias signals have contained the Globex range. A couple of dips tested 3857 before midnight and through Europe's opens. Both dips recovered to 3871 unchanged, and now the second recovery is probing fresh overnight highs up to 3882.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : No-bias trending... Too-late-to-break.
Their influences : Wed afternoon's 3884 bias-down signal broke lower during its no-bias window, and was retraced only to the bias-down target, so a retrace to 3884 became unfinished business above. It was just retraced to within 3-6 ticks, neutralizing it... Currently the overnight range is defined by or contained between its bias signals. A breakout in the 8:00-8:30 ET window would likely retrace into the range, whether resolving back in the breakout;s direction or reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
Premise : FOMC Minutes was greeted optimistically, and its headline was bearish, but the reaction down seemed relatively tepid. And overnight hasn't worsened things. Perhaps bad news is discounted, and the 2-week long range has formed a base that is ready to break higher. Perhaps Santa couldn't handle the pressure of producing his proverbial rally while everyone was watching -- some guys are like that. Well, his deadline lapsed yesterday. Nevertheless, any buy signal this morning would be credible for extending through the 3891 area to the Gap & Pause setup's 3919 highs and higher.
Alternative : There's no bullish reason further delay rallying, and retesting Wed afternoon's 3848 low probably probes under the morning's 3837 low which jeopardizes 3839 again.
Levels : UP: 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Stock Market Opening Update - 10:46 AM
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Previously : The 3860-3884 bias signals had contained the Globex range. Dips to 3857 eventually reacted up to 3885.
New price points : ADP's report was greeted at 3871 unchanged, and reacted down to fresh overnight lows through the 3848 bias-down target. Post-open extended deeper to 3824. A bounce to 3852 still triggered a renewed bias-down.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-DOWN... Too-late-to-break.
Their influences : A sideways overnight range broke lower during the 8:00-8:30 ET window but has yet to retrace the earlier range, which isn't required, but likely.
Triggers/Tactics : Retesting Wed afternoon's 3848 low could have been isolated to the open, but it exceeded 3843 and is now probing under the morning's 3837 low, While this jeopardizes 3839 again, exiting the bias window back above it would be another isolation -- and a faster turnaround. The too-late-to-break setup doesn't require its recovery but encourages it. And having extended so deeply already, retracing the overnight range probably wouldn't be a temporary correction but a more substantial reversal in the opposite direction.
Alternative : Rally attempts during the renewed bias-down window should fail, or at least not yet recover the 3848 and 3860 bias-down parameters. So, while buy signals are likely to fail, flat-to-lower or downtrending is likelier.
Levels : UP: 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3841, targeting 3855.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3824, targeting 3812.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Performance Mid-Day Update - 1:55 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : The 3860-3884 bias signals had contained the Globex range. Dips to 3857 eventually reacted up to 3885. ADP's report was greeted at 3871 unchanged, and reacted down to fresh overnight lows through the 3848 bias-down target. Post-open extended deeper to 3824. A bounce to 3852 still triggered a renewed bias-down.
New price points : The bias window exit tested the morning low down to 3823 and ranged narrowly sideways through the noon hour between bias signals. A very last-minute Fed headline triggered a surge to 3850 and a late bias-up.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, Fed speaker, Employment Situation Report.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP... Too-late-to-break.
Their influences : A sideways overnight range broke lower during the 8:00-8:30 ET window but has yet to retrace the earlier range, which isn't required, but likely.
Triggers/Tactics : Entering the noon hour under 3839 was almost maintained into the bias window if not for its grace period. The headline also triggered the bias-up, late. Even if the bounce were to resume and to extend higher, correcting the headline reaction back down to 3833 is likely. Extending deeper has become less likely with the potential paralysis ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report.
Alternative : Otherwise, the bullish scenario is developing, with the pre-open too-late-to-break setup attracting price back into the overnight range -- and already having probed such lower lows, returning into the overnight range would likely reverse above them more substantially.
Levels : UP: 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Session Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : A sideways overnight 3857-3885 range broke out during 8:00-8:30 window (ADP) and extended down through Thu's first half-hour to 3824. Two bounces to 3852 (on a Fed speaker headline) each resolved back down to the earlier low, ranging sideways ahead of Fri's NFP report.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, Fed speaker, Layoffs heating up, Employment Situation Report.
Setups/Patterns : Too-late-to-break... Late bias-up.
Their influences : A sideways overnight range broke lower during the 8:00-8:30 ET window but has yet to retrace the earlier range, which isn't required, but likely... Although somewhat suspect for being triggered by a very last-minute Fed speaker headline, Thu afternoon's bias-up did trigger late and wasn't rejected, leaving outstanding its 3855 bias-up target to become unfinished business above.
Premise : Another close under 3839 Thu makes Fri vulnerable either to launching a new downleg, or else rejecting the isolation aggressively. Gapping up to and through Wed night's 3857-3885 too-late-to-break range, in reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report is a likely path higher. So is recovering an even deeper knee-jerk reaction down to 3812.
Alternative : The latter scenario of a knee-jerk reaction down would risk being exacerbated by Friday Factors, which make the morning's bias tend to persist through the noon hour. The Wrap recording discusses characteristics of the range that would probe.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3845, targeting 3860.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3825, targeting 3812.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.