Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Choppy sideways ranging fluctuating around Wed's 3990 close broke higher in time to greet CPI at 4008 resistance, where a blip-up to 4020 snapped back down to 3954. Recovering it all to 4021 pre-open was also reversed down through Thu's open to 3957. Fluctuating around unchanged through the afternoon was twice resisted by the P.M. 4018 bias-up target.
Overnight price points : Initial firming back up to 4008 was reversed to the 3991 bias-down signal. Gradually firming after midnight through Europe's opens extended up to 4006. Sliding 2 hours ago has begun collapsing amid earnings headlines, extending back through earlier lows to the 3974 bias-down target.
Catalysts : Rally targets met, BTC higher, Earnings begin (banks), Consumer Sentiment, 3-day weekend approaching.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors.
Their influences : Friday morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Often, a PM Drift setup also forms.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : The market's most bullish feature is that it didn't reverse down Thu. But yesterday lacked momentum in either direction, and not for lack of trying. Fluctuating narrowly overnight around Wed's 3990 close became fluctuating widely intraday around it, now also returning to it last night, too. All of which may have formed a position of strength to tether a temporary corrective dip that absorbs the earnings season kick-off. Combined with having held multiple tests of the highest 4008 objective, now also last night's high, a multi-session corrective dip became appropriate. And already indicated lower suggests the correction is beginning. The rally's most recent sessions already utilized lower prior highs to launch fresh uplegs, so almost any attack on Thu afternoon's intraday lows under 3980 could discover an air pocket that quickly collapses to defend much lower levels (that seems to have developed already from 3985).
Alternative : Recovering to avoid triggering bias-down would at least delay the correction, and Friday Factors could even exacerbate its upside objective.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4025… DOWN: 3966, 3948-53, 3920, 3874.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Initial firming back up to 4008 was reversed to the 3991 bias-down signal. Gradually firming after midnight through Europe's opens extended up to 4006. Sliding 2 hours ago has begun collapsing amid earnings headlines, extending back through earlier lows to the 3974 bias-down target.
New price points : The drop extended to 3962 before firming into Fri's open. A post-open dip to 3966 support reacted up relentlessly through the first hour to 4000.
Catalysts : Rally targets met, BTC higher, Earnings begin (banks), Consumer Sentiment, 3-day weekend approaching.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE SYNTHETIC BIAS-UP... Friday Factors... 10:00<>10:30 Extreme sentiment.
Their influences : Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Triggering after the grace period requires only the bias-up signal's test, but often visits bias-up's target, too... Friday morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Often, a PM Drift setup also forms... The first 15-minute range was exceeded at 10:15 and then 10:30 was higher, which either proves to be excessive sentiment that reverses, or else extreme sentiment that has become entrenched.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Another attraction back to 3990! Recovering to avoid triggering bias-down can at least delay a correction, with the 4011 and potentially 4025 objectives in-play. Friday Factors suggest this morning's bias will persist through the noon hour, which isn't a bias-up, but at least isn't a bias-down. Could this morning's recovery from 3966 have also ended the correction? We'll discuss that later today.
Alternative : The air pocket under 3980 developed and already reset, both in the same timing window, so the air pocket is still there. Until the late bias produces a fresh post-10:30 high (above 4001) its upside objectives can be invalidated by entering the noon hour back under its 3974 bias-down target. Being a late bias, a shallower downdraft can still develop that leaves unfinished business above. Regardless of its intent and ability, under 3981 would confirm momentum is reversing down.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4025… DOWN: 3966, 3948-53, 3920, 3874.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

FRI P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3997, targeting 4014.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3981, targeting 3969.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.