Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Thu night ranging between 3912-3932 was contained mostly by either bias signal, and quickly repeated at Fri's open. Expiration and Friday Factors enhanced a relentless rally through the morning to 3954. Fri PM Drift leveraged the other influences to rally relentlessly through the afternoon to 3991.
Overnight price points : Except for a couple of blips-up to 3993-3995 just before and after Europe's opens, an extremely narrow range has been contained between 3981-3988.
Catalysts : Expiration exit, ECB hawks, Earnings, Debt limit, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Stalled correction, WedEX.
Their influences : Fri's rally comes after the prior week's stalled rally around 4008 had retraced to its 3901-3925 corrective targets. WedEX's conflicted inputs leave no signal for this morning, so a trending attempt would be less likely to extend or to gain traction.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Isolating another break back under 3925 pre-open and post-open Fri was already well-rewarded that morning. The afternoon's extension wasn't necessarily overly-optimistic, but was likely influenced by expiration. Being more mechanical than organic is less reliable to extend even higher and more vulnerable to backing-and-filling. A couple of likely candidates are 3968 and 3960, then 3953, the latter being Fri afternoon's 3953 lower prior highs and its prematurely broken bias-up signal. Meanwhile, WedEX's two inputs were extreme but contrary to each other, so trending is a little likelier to be attempted and a little more vulnerable to being temporary less buying pressure extended the recovery. Whether already rallying anyway this morning, or eventually, resuming the previously stalled rally that had fluctuated around 4008 is expected to recover recent highs that begin at 4015-4020 and higher.
Alternative : Not only is the prediction of a narrow range's resolution unreliable -- especially when it is overnight and centered around unchanged -- but the initial resolution itself is also unreliable and vulnerable to retrace. In other words, be reluctant this morning to commit either way or for very long.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4023, 4055… DOWN: 3963, 3950, 3925.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Except for a couple of blips-up to 3993-3995 just before and after Europe's opens, the weekend's strong trending entry was exited by an extremely narrow range contained overnight between 3981-3988.
New price points : A little more strength up to 4000 on LEI headlines was consolidated down to 3987 at the open. The first 15 minutes resolved up sharply, and has extended relentlessly since then to now test 4051 on simultaneously overbought RSIs.
Catalysts : ECB hawks, Earnings, Debt limit, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-UP... Stalled correction.
Their influences : Now probing the stalled rally's 3035 highs ends the stalled correction phase, so that multiple consecutive timing windows can extend the rally.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Already probing the pullback's origin so soon after testing the pullback limit doesn't make backing-and-filling any less likely, but it doesn't necessarily make the rally any more vulnerable to it. A pullback has room down to 4016-4019 lower prior highs without interrupting the trend.
Alternative : The 4048 area is a candidate for pushing back on the rally -- several prior candidates were ignored already, and entering the noon hour above 4055 could double today's rally before the close.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4023, 4055… DOWN: 4018, 3988, 3963.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

MON P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4055, targeting 4069.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4033, targeting 4022.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.