VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:42 AM
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Previously : Overnight ranging between 4061-4067 greeted Fri's opening relief rally that surged through 4082 to 4094. Its complete retrace back to 4063 during bias-up was recovered and reversed to fresh highs at 4109. The Proxy Window reversed down again to 4081 through the close.
Overnight price points : Sun's gap down to the 4074 bias-down signal has extended down relentlessly through midnight and Europe's opens, and through both bias-down parameters and Thu night's lows, to 4040.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Relentless overnight trending.
Their influences : Maintaining the overnight pattern of lower lows and lower highs into the open would enable the first 15 minutes behavior to signal whether reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship is arriving.
Premise : Trending up intraday Fri and closing above all prior sessions' highs suggests the overnight slide comes from a position of strength, making it only temporary. Meanwhile, the interim dip is testing support at 4040-4044, under what is now resistance at 4048-4051. Testing either, and resolving either test through a timing window's lapse, would signal the next likely direction/attraction. Continuing last week's pattern of gaps down reversing up intraday on accumulation keeps the door open for a morning rally.
Alternative : The 4044 pivotal low bounced back to 4048-4052 and resolved down to 4040. Now its reaction is challenging 4048 -- and if not recovered, would open the door to attractions down to 3987.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4040, 4022, 3992.
Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels - 10:55 AM
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Previously : Sun's gap down to the 4074 bias-down signal has extended down relentlessly through midnight and Europe's opens, and through both bias-down parameters and Thu night's lows, to 4040.
New price points : Bouncing into the 4054 open extended to 4078 but still overlapped the 4074 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. It resolved as price continued reacting down through the 4060 bias-down target and through the open to 4045.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC/CBs anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Relentless overnight trending.
Their influences : The overnight pattern of lower lows and lower highs was not maintained into the open, so post-open price action had no predictive correlation.
Triggers/Tactics : 4048-4051 is being challenged again, now as support, and is a candidate to contain the bias-down behavior for an afternoon recovery. A reaction up is already attacking 4054 during the usual 3-minute attention span of countertrend sponsorship. Higher, later, would be credible for having bottomed and reversed up.
Alternative : This is still early in the bias-down window, which has continued being productive since it was signaled. Entering the noon hour under the 4040-4044 support counterpart would open the door to attractions down to 3987.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4040, 4022, 3992.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4068, targeting 4084.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4048, targeting 4035.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:32 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Sun's gap down to the 4074 bias-down signal extended down relentlessly through both bias-down parameters and Thu night's lows, to 4040. Bouncing into the 4054 open extended to 4078 but still triggered bias-down signal. A 20-point bounce off 4045 was retraced, too.
New price points : An even shallower bounce into the noon hour also retraced post-open lows, piercing 4040-4044 to neutralize the earlier low's oversold RSIs. Its reaction snapped up to 4057.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC/CBs anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... Accumulation.
Their influences : Overnight, late-morning, and noon hour lows have each probed relevant support, and exited their respective timing windows back above their counterpart resistance. Assuming that the close hasn't fallen to fresh lows, this behavior is a different version of the accumulation that followed last Tue-Wed's gaps down.
Triggers/Tactics : 4048-4051 held another support test, keeping the door open to an afternoon rally -- or to gapping up tomorrow if this afternoon only ranges sideways.
Alternative : The noon hour held at or above 4040-4044, but could be retested regardless of its intent. Exiting a timing window any lower would open the door to attractions down to 3987.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4040, 4022, 3992.
Market Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Sun's gap down to the 4074 bias-down signal extended down relentlessly to 4040. Bouncing into the open extended to 4078 but still triggered bias-down signal. Bounces to lower highs were each retraced, too, extending through the close to fresh lows at 4030.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, FOMC/CBs anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Accumulation.
Their influences : Mon's overnight, late-morning, and noon hour lows each probed relevant support, and exited their respective timing windows back above their counterpart resistance. Closing below these lows requires gapping up Tue for these intraday isolations to be bullish.
Premise : Ultimately closing under and 4040-4044 opens the door to attractions extending down to 3987. Relatively shallow bounces to 4048-4051 would be likely to resolve down unless recovered through a relevant window, beginning with a gap up.
Alternative : Reliably influential econ reports begin post-open Tue, so recovering into the noon hour could still be credible for ending Monday's decline and already reversing momentum up optimistically into Wed's FOMC events.
Levels : UP: 4052, 4101, 4121... DOWN: 4040, 4022, 3992.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4043, targeting 4057.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4028, targeting 4015.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.