VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Bias - 7:38 AM
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Previously : Globex quickly extended Tue's collapse from 3985 to 3956 through the open, then reversed up and extended to 3991. Reacting down extended to 3960 pre-open and eventually to 3943 through the morning. Oversold RSIs there produced a bounce to 3974 that was retraced to 3946.
Overnight price points : Globex initially firmed to the 3966 bias-up signal and then began collapsing to and through all prior lows. Bounces developed at the 3948 and 3933 bias-down parameters on the way down to greeting Europe's opens at 3925. A bounce from there got to 3948.
Catalysts : Limited econs and Fed speakers.
Setups/Patterns : 61.8% correction... Copper, FCX.
Their influences : Testing last Fri's bounce from the Dec-Feb upleg's 61.8% retrace... I'll be updating coverage intraday in the vidiROOM for last Saturday's bullish outlooks for Copper and FCX.
Premise : Happy Anniversary! The recovery's high was 4 weeks ago today. The downtrending channel it formed broke its lower-end almost 2 weeks ago. And now the 61.8% retracement back to the Christmas low is being probed. Participants have been largely conditioned to be defensive, if not also outright bearish. Meanwhile, overnight lows are testing the decline's next lower attraction at 3935 -- swinging 10 points either way around it -- having fallen 40 points from overnight highs. Capitulation? An intraday retest of 3935 isn't required, and exiting the open back above yesterday's 3943 low would isolate the overnight probe under it. Another morning rally would fill the gap back up to 3958, for starters.
Alternative : Exiting the open under yesterday's 3943 low would be attracted to 3935, but also set the tone for a more productive morning decline.
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.
Day Trading Opening Trends - 11:08 AM
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Previously : Globex initially firmed to the 3966 bias-up signal and then began collapsing to and through all prior lows. Bounces developed at the 3948 and 3933 bias-down parameters on the way down to greeting Europe's opens at 3925. A bounce from there got to 3948.
New price points : A pre-open dip to 3930 was maintained through the open, then retraced by higher and higher highs eventually attacking 3955.
Catalysts : Limited econs and Fed speakers.
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-DOWN... Proxy gap... Rising wedge.
Their influences : The 3948 bias-down signal need not define the window's upper-end, although it has been holding... That coincides with the 61.8% proxy gap at 3949, and both have been holding as resistance... An pattern has reached its apex and should resolve quickly.
Triggers/Tactics : An overnight attempt failed to isolate probing under yesterday's low. That hasn't stopped a post-open attempt comprised of sizeable choppy swings has at least prevented triggering bias-down. And having already met the bias-down target, even triggering bias-down wouldn't prevent rallying. More so, this is a noN-bias window which is free to trend in either direction, and exiting the bias window above the 3948 bias-down signal would be credible for extending.
Alternative : The only bullish factor is the bias-down being prevented by a noN-bias. Otherwise, the open's anchor at lower levels keeps the door open to its retest. And a Rising Wedge now forming is vulnerable to breaking lower. Back under 3943 would all but ensure the open's retest if not also lower.
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3955, targeting 3968.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3939, targeting 3926.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:49 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Wed night's Globex initially firmed to 3966 then began collapsing, eventually extending to 3930. Reacting up temporarily pre-open, was retraced even higher Thu morning to 3955.
New price points : Flat-to-lower during the noon hour held a prior low at 3942, and attacked earlier highs up to 3954. A Fed speaker's headline just triggered a surge to 3967.
Catalysts : Limited econs and Fed speakers.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS... No-bias trending.
Their influences : Probing above the 3955 bias-up signal during the no-bias window will require its eventual retrace.
Triggers/Tactics : The anchored price action through today's open that fluctuated narrowly around 3935 is likely to be retested if buyers don't gain traction for their efforts. They didn't trigger bias-up, and now surging to fresh highs is only the product of weak-handed knee-jerk reaction to a headline. The prematurely probed 3955 bias-up signal will need to have been retraced when the bias window is lapsing or else it will become unfinished business attracting price back down. The headline's 3950 origin need not be retraced but that could make the stretched rubber band snap back down.
Alternative : Whether or not its timing were to leave unfinished business below at 3955, back above 3966 could finally produce a close above relevant resistance that reverses the trend back up.
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Wed night's Globex initially firmed to 3966 then began collapsing, eventually extending to 3930. Fluctuating around the 3935 open eventually broke higher through Thu morning to 3955, and retested Thu afternoon when a Fed speaker's headline triggered a surge that extended to 3995.
Catalysts : PMI, ISM, multiple Fed speakers.
Setups/Patterns : No-bias trending - invalidated... Late headline.
Their influences : Prematurely probing the 3955 bias-up signal during the no-bias window would have required its retrace if the window did not lapse above its 3968 bias-up target... Late-afternoon headline reactions can persist by crowding out strong hands that become inhibited by the limited remaining session time.
Premise : There's an old saying that I just made up: "Live by the Fed headline, die by the Fed headline... sometimes, in reverse." Price action at the 3935 open had made its retest likely, but not required. The P.M. bias window's hesitation seemed to be taking a deep breath before taking another dive -- Bostic's 1/4-point rate hike endorsement triggered a bigger opposing move, similar to Mester's 1/2-point headline two weeks earlier that killed a breakout attempt*. Productive P.M. headline reactions often extend either overnight, the next morning, or both as global markets react to the apparently influential news. Having met and held the decline's next lower attraction at 3935, absorbing dips and/or recovering resistance can gain and maintain upside traction.
Alternative : Thu's outside day doesn't qualify as reversing the trend up, not without a second consecutive higher close Fri. Meanwhile, it is vulnerable to backing-and-filling, which can start being productive and gain traction through a timing window exit under 3975. *And with several Fed speakers scheduled Fri, remember that other saying: "Live by the Fed headline, die by the Fed headline... rinse, repeat."
Levels : UP: 3998, 4018, 4044... DOWN: 3935, 3911, 3874.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3992, targeting 4010.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3974, targeting 3960.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.