VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 7:31 AM
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Previously : Thu's night's 3974 low was reversed up sharply as Europe's opens extended Thu's P.M. headline reaction. Friday Factors leveraged the morning's bias-up to persist through the noon hour, and the PM Drift kept momentum intact through the afternoon. The 261.8% 4053 Gap Proxy defined session highs.
Overnight price points : Sun night's Globex open gapped down to the 4042 bias-down signal. Its reaction bounced to 4050 and suddenly surged to 4063. Flat-to-lower through midnight and Europe's opens has retraced to within 2 points of the initial 4042 low.
Catalysts : post-open econ report, pre-Powell anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Globex-flip.
Their influences : Exiting Mon's first-15 minutes back under the Globex open's range would isolate a probe above Fri's high for a downward morning influence.
Premise : Globex's gap down was consistent with the likeliest scenario described during Saturday Review for backing-and-filling sooner, rather than later. And so is its near-complete retrace, notwithstanding the interim surge. That interim surge keeps alive potential for another bounce along the way to further morning weakness, which continues to be the likeliest resolution -- especially if the 4042-4046 Globex open range isn't recovered through the first-15 minutes. Downside attractions include 4033 and 4022, and potentially 4003 although that would risk a bigger delay to resuming the rally.
Alternative : Having recovered the month-old downtrending channel's support, its resistance is often quickly met at 4077. While backing-and-filling this morning wouldn't undermine that pace, exiting the open above the 4042-4046 Globex open range could trigger a relief rally that resumes the rally to 4077. A runaway rally would next target 4105-4112 and 4160.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4019, 3993, 3974.
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:56 AM
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Previously : Sun night's Globex open gapped down to the 4042 bias-down signal. Its reaction bounced to 4050 and suddenly surged to 4063. Flat-to-lower through midnight and Europe's opens has retraced to within 2 points of the initial 4042 low.
New price points : Overnight highs were already retraced pre-open. Mon's first half-hour hovered above Fri's highs and the 4058 bias-up signal to form an Ascending Triangle. Its breakout extended to attack 4082, testing the month-old downtrending channel's resistance that intersects at 4077-4083.
Catalysts : post-open econ report, pre-Powell anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET... Globex-flip.
Their influences : Exceeding the bias-up target after 10:15 was too late to renew the signal, but it is still a bias-up environment... Already recovering above the Globex open's range mooted any setup that references it, so not testing it post-open neutralizes the opportunity to assess the strength of buyers or sellers. But it does not preclude trending in either direction, anyway, and if anything the recovery still gives further upside an edge.
Triggers/Tactics : Globex's dips don't qualify as backing-and-filling, despite that being the likeliest scenario exiting the weekend. So, already extending the Thu-Fri upleg with virtually no hesitation, and already extending it to the downtrending channel's resistance, reflects extreme optimism. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are simultaneously overbought at the high, so reacting down would likely recover. But meanwhile a lot of buying pressure is being expended without yet refueling strong-handed buyers. And this morning's rally already contains two Ascending Triangles, patterns that are vulnerable to breaking falsely before reversing more substantially. Stops should be tightened, and short-entry should be considered as the bias window lapse starts coming within view.
Alternative : A runaway rally would next target 4105-4112 and 4160.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4019, 3993, 3974.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4084, targeting 4098.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4068, targeting 4053.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:40 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Globex's gap down to 4042 had soon bounced to 4063. Its retrace to 4043 was recovered entirely pre-open, then extended higher after Mon's open to attack 4082 and the month-old downtrending channel's resistance.
New price points : Relatively narrow sideways ranging broke lower 61.8% of the way through the noon hour, and extended back through the open's range at 4057.
Catalysts : post-open econ report, pre-Powell anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : Bounces for the next hour should hold any test of thee 4068 bias-up signal, while working lower to the 4053 bias-down target.
Triggers/Tactics : Saturday discussed the likely anxiousness Mon and Tue afternoon ahead of the next morning's Powell appearances. While this inhibits trending into new territory, retracing the range of overnight lows up to this morning's highs at 4043-4083 would be credible. But neither is less likely to be tested than attacked.
Alternative : Rallying back through 4068 would start to chip away at higher prior lows to give a fresh session high potential for printing -- although extending any higher would still be difficult.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4019, 3993, 3974.
Day Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Globex's gap down to 4042 had soon bounced to 4063. Its retrace to 4043 was recovered entirely pre-open, then extended higher after Mon's open to attack 4082 and the month-old downtrending channel's resistance. Relatively narrow sideways ranging broke lower 61.8% of the way through the noon hour. Trending down relentlessness probed the open's range down to 4048.
Catalysts : pre-Powell anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Powell Testimony day-1.
Their influences : Whatever the Fed Chair discusses will be compared against stocks and bonds reaction to it, which might be so significant that Powell walks it back on day-2. Meanwhile, the news might be so bullish or bearish that the market extends Tue's reaction overnight assuming an exact replica will develop Wed.
Premise : Still awaiting Powell's testimony, Mon's range could persist into his opening remarks and then contain reactions to the Q&A between 4033-4077. Breaking higher is possible, but not necessarily Tue.
Alternative : Having retraced all of the morning's gains through Mon's close, overnight and Tue's post-open pre-Powell could form some of the backing-and-filling that would have been healthier Mon morning -- and instead greeting Powell at or near 4033 could react poorly on the way either only to 4022 or deeper to 4003.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4019, 3993, 3974.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4063, targeting 4074.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4044, targeting 4033.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.