VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 7:31 AM
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Previously : Mon's late bounce extended to 4064 and ranged mostly sideways through Europe's opens. Already reversing down into Tue's open stopped optimistically short of touching Mon's 4048 low, providing a well-timed warning that imploded on Powell headlines. The final hour entry was testing 3983 and ranged sideways through the close.
Overnight price points : An uneventful night ranged narrowly up to 3993 and down to the 3984 bias-down signal. Firming into and out of Europe's opens extended momentarily up to 4001... then back down to 3993, where a spike down just attacked 3987.
Catalysts : ADP, JOLTS, Powell II, Beige Book.
Setups/Patterns : Oversold RSIs, Powell Testimony day-2.
Their influences : Yesterday's 3982 low requires a retest... Was Powell satisfied with stock and bond market reactions to his remarks? He may reinforce them Wed, which is likely widely anticipated, so the market has already discounted a similar message to Tue. Doubtful that he'll try walking back his comments, which would trigger a rally.
Premise : If Powell reinforces his message from Tue's testimony on Wed, the least likely resolution is to extend Tue's collapse except temporarily. His message was already at the extreme of bearish possibilities, and already discounted in price.
Alternative : But at least some dip is likely, having left unfinished business there by yesterday's oversold RSIs at 3982. And hovering optimistically short of its required retest, let alone rallying since then, aren't bullish from a contrarian perspective -- not unless the open can maintain a gap above yesterday afternoon's 4005 high.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels - 11:09 AM
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Previously : An uneventful night ranged narrowly up to 3993 and down to the 3984 bias-down signal. Firming into and out of Europe's opens extended momentarily up to 4001... then back down to 3993, where a spike down retraced yesterday's low down to 3982.
New price points : Bouncing back to 3996 fluctuated through the open before Powell's headline triggered a knee-jerk reaction down to 3974. Its choppy reaction up extended to the 4003 bias-up signal, its resistance reversing price back down to 3987.
Catalysts : ADP, JOLTS, Powell II, Beige Book.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... Powell Testimony day-2.
Their influences : Holding a test of the bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal, which was fulfilled... Powell's remarks triggered the obligatory knee-jerk reaction down as expected, quickly retraced because its news was already discounted yesterday. And Powell DID walk back yesterday's testimony, emphasizing that a 50 bps hike still depends on more data, triggering a reaction back up.
Triggers/Tactics : At least some dip was likely, having left unfinished business there by yesterday's oversold RSIs at 3982, and its pre-open retest was still a little too optimistic. But even reinforcing yesterday's message, Powell's headline reaction was likely to be temporary. That isolated sellers under the bias-down signal, and the qualifier added to today's remarks enabled a quick upside resolution. But still being a no-bias window, the bias-up signal was required to hold as resistance, and did push price back down. Soon the bias influence will lapse, and soon after that Powell's testimony will end. A relief rally can already begin developing into the noon hour.
Alternative : Trending back down anyway would all but require some other catalyst, probably artificial i.e. headline reaction.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4007, targeting 4022.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3991, targeting 3979.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Performance Mid-Day Update - 1:38 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : An uneventful night ranged narrowly up to 3993 and down to the 3984 bias-down signal. Firming into and out of Europe's opens extended momentarily up to 4001, then snapped back down to neutralize oversold RSIs at Tue's 3982 low. Powell's headline triggered a spike down to 3974 that recovered to the 4003 bias-up signal.
New price points : The no-bias window's dip to 3983 recovered its 4003 bias-up signal by noon, but trending down through the noon hour is persisting to probe fresh lows down to 3972.
Catalysts : ADP, JOLTS, Powell II, Beige Book.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED.
Their influences : Almost still testing the target by 1 tick, but now extending down anyway.
Triggers/Tactics : An afternoon relief rally would have been likely after absorbing redundant, discounted news. But the noon hour behaved only bearishly, instead of already rallying before Powell's testimony had ended. Now probing back under the month-old downtrending channel's support, with room to extend deeper to 3968 and 3954.
Alternative : RSIs are avoiding oversold territory so far, despite trending down since noon and now probing fresh lows. Abruptly reversing up (Beige Book?) would be credible for extending higher, but that's probably the only sponsorship capable of rejecting the continued weakness.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Ranging narrowly overnight between 3984-3993 briefly tested 4001 before reversing down to retest oversold RSIs at Tue's 3982 low. Powell's headline triggered a spike down to 3974 that recovered to the 4003 bias-up signal -- twice through the morning. Trending down through the noon hour probed fresh lows down to 3972, and the last half-hour firmed up to 3997.
Catalysts : ADP, JOLTS, Powell II, Beige Book.
Setups/Patterns : no active setup.
Their influences : - .
Premise : Absent an afternoon relief rally, Wed was vulnerable to launching a downleg. But its weakness can be defined as a couple of isolated probes under Tue's 3982 low. The probes also tested the moth-old channel's downtrending support. No actual downlegs, but also their reversal was too shallow to signal momentum reversing up. Thu's open could gap up above Wed's 4003 to serve by proxy, confirmed by extending higher without delay.
Alternative : Buyers never gained traction Wed, so gapping down Thu isn't necessary to launch a morning decline. Extending down would next target 3968 and potentially 3954 before any lower would suggest last Thursday's recovery from 3935 is failing.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4002, targeting 4016.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3984, targeting 3968.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.