VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Signals - 7:45 AM
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Previously : Shallower sideways ranging persisted overnight between 3888-3912 until a late surge greeted CPI optimistically at the 3925 bias-up signal. Its 40-point blip-down pierced overnight lows at 3885 and snapped back up to greet the open at the 3943 bias-up target. Exceeding overnight highs through the open extended relentlessly higher through the A.M. window to 3972. All of which was reversed and then some to 3905. The last half-hour surged back up to 3958.
Overnight price points : At first narrowly consolidating Tue's last half-hour surge, firming to the 3964 bias-up signal by midnight held up until Europe's opens. European bank stocks began collapsing, and so have markets, reversing yesterday afternoon's surge sharply lower to 3871.
Catalysts : PPI, Retail Sales, European banks, pre-ECB anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Weak-handed low.
Their influences : Monday's 3840 low is back in-play.
Premise : Beware the Ides, indeed. Before it took on a more intimate meaning for Julius Caesar in 44 BC, the Ides of March on the 15th was traditionally notable in Rome as a deadline for settling debts. Ironical, or just fitting, that banks are triggering another run at the lows. And banks still being the catalyst, outsized intraday ranges should persist. The session is also indicated to open with rejection of yesterday's late and less reliable recovery back above 3922/3940, back in the orbit of Mon's 3840 low. Under 3868 would further confirm 3840's retrace is underway, likely to be probed down to 3815, if not also to 3876. A negative reaction to PPI is a likely element in that journey, and a negative PPI is not discounted, and it is being greeted from sharply lower levels.
Alternative : -- A negative PPI is not discounted. Yesterday afternoon's drop was triggered by the drone vs. MiG hit-and-run and also AAPL's cost-cutting headline, the late surge was fueled by last-minute optimism due to the morning's CPI reaction, and the current overnight drop is not about PPI. Nevertheless, price is lower, so a less-inflationary report could trigger a higher open.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Market Opening Thoughts - 10:54 AM
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Previously : Eventually firming to the 3964 bias-up signal by midnight held up until Europe's opens where bank stocks began collapsing, reversing Tue's late surge sharply lower to 3871.
New price points : PPI's weaker headline barely reacted up to 3900 before reversing down to fulfill targeted fresh lows at 3865. Bouncing through the open touched the 3910 38.2% proxy gap and ranged sideways through the first hour down to 3875.
Catalysts : PPI, Retail Sales, European banks, pre-ECB anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Weak-handed low.
Their influences : A retest of Monday's 3840 low is back in-play.
Triggers/Tactics : Quickly rejecting PPI's favorable knee-jerk reaction suggests sentiment remains pessimistic and the burden of proof is on buyers to gain traction back above a relevant resistance. Even then, under 3922 remains in the orbit of Mon's 3840 low and its likely retest targeting 3815, if not also to 3876.
Alternative : Barely eking out fresh post-open lows under the first half-hour's range, and still above overnight lows doesn't yet suggest that sellers are attracting stronger-handed reinforcements. This keeps the door open to an afternoon bounce if the noon hour isn't entered lower.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3909, targeting 3921.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3880, targeting 3866.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Update - 1:39 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : Eventually firming to the 3964 bias-up signal by midnight held up until Europe's opens where bank stocks began collapsing, reversing Tue's late surge sharply lower to 3871. PPI's blip-up to 3900 was rejected to fresh lows at 3865. Bouncing through the open to 3910 was retraced 38.2% proxy gap and ranged sideways through the first hour down to 3875.
New price points : The morning's bounce to 3906 was reversed to fresh post open lows at 3870 during the noon hour. Surging out of the noon hour to 3898 avoided triggering bias-down.
Catalysts : PPI, Retail Sales, European banks, pre-ECB anxiousness, WedEX.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : The P.M. bias window's lower-end should be defined by its 3880 bias-down signal if tested.
Triggers/Tactics : Three successively lower lows down to 3870 during the noon hour each bounced back above the 3880 bias-down signal, each time isolating sellers. None of which mattered until entering the bias window at 1:20 above 3870 to trigger no-bias. More so, the three bounces' 3888 reaction high was also recovered then. Just isolating one probe, let alone three, let alone back above their interim reactions, further and further suggests today's low is in. The balance of the session should range flat-to-higher if not outright higher.
Alternative : While today's lows are likely in, a headline's knee-jerk reaction could still derail a recovery, or the P.M. bias window lapse could already resume the overnight decline.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Market Performance Signals - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Firming to the 3964 bias-up signal by midnight was reversed down sharply as Europe's opens saw bank stocks collapse. ES collapsed to 3871 and 3865 into and out of PPI. Bouncing through Wed's open to 3910 was retraced to 3975-3970 before and back into the noon hour. Surging out of the noon hour extended to 3930.
Catalysts : PPI, Retail Sales, European banks, pre-ECB anxiousness, WedEX.
Setups/Patterns : WedEX.
Their influences : Gapping down Thu under Wed's low would qualify for the expiration setup's first input, which otherwise didn't form.
Premise : Isolating the noon hour's sellers under both the 3875 morning's low and the 3880 bias-down signal was rewarded by retracing the 3907 interim high. Extending higher only overlapped 3922 without either recovering or rejecting it. A last-minute surge on SNB-CS headlines neutralized the intraday high's overbought RSIs. So, reversing back down would be credible, but probably only immediately if at all. Gapping down would be credible to back-and-fill for the morning. Gapping down under Wed's 3870 low would be credible for probing 3840 to 3815.
Alternative : Ranging sideways for Wed's last 60-90 minutes lost upside momentum and held its resistance. Resuming the rally requires either the premise's first option of gapping down to back-and-fill for the morning, or else gapping up above Wed's highs and preferably through 3940.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3938, targeting 3953.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3911, targeting 3897.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.