VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE In case you missed it, here's this weekend's VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Bias - 7:42 AM
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Previously : Globex immediately slipped back down to 3988 to range sideways. Firming at midnight extended through Europe's opens to 4009. Reversing back down extended through Globex's earlier lows, extending to 3957. Bouncing through Fri's open was reversed down from 3993 to 3933. And the noon hour's bounce to 3966 was also reversed down to 3933.
Overnight price points : Two big reversals began with Globex's immediate surge 24 points above Fri's 3948 cash session close, a pent-up knee-jerk headline reaction to Credit Suisse's rescue Sunday. Despite choppily swinging higher to 3978, it was all retraced through midnight. The retrace extended into a sharp reversal down to 3897 into and out of Europe's opens. And now that has been recovered to probe positive territory up to 3954.
Catalysts : CS rescue, No econs, FOMC hike-or-not, Recession.
Setups/Patterns : Expiration unwind, Already recovered overnight drop.
Their influences : Expiration's influence reaches into Mon morning, especially any tempo from Fri afternoon, which was lower in a range... The intraday crowd has an odd masochistic tendency to duplicate to some degree an overnight drop that was already recovered pre-open, and that vulnerability doesn't lapse until exiting the morning bullishly.
Premise : Fri's P.M. noN-bias had kept the door open to resuming the decline, which remained open after the afternoon's test of the morning's 3933 low wasn't reversed back up. The weekend's exit didn't immediately extend Fri's decline, but did eventually collapse overnight. And now Mon's open may be greeted unchanged, which isn't yet enough strength to neutralize the vulnerability to duplicating the Already recovered overnight drop. Opening strength remains vulnerable to being reversed without at least gapping up above 3859, or extending the first-15 minutes through 3866, or triggering the 3963 bias-up signal at 10:15. Opening back under 3930 would make the 3937 bias-down signal likelier to trigger.
Alternative : Gapping up above 3859, preferably extending the first-15 minutes through 3866, or triggering the 3963 bias-up signal at 10:15, would target a retest of overnight highs around 3977. Any higher into the noon hour could trigger an afternoon rally.
Levels : UP: 3970, 3988, 3997... DOWN: 3911, 3877, 3852.
Stock Market Opening Update - 10:50 AM
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Previously : Two big reversals began with Globex's immediate surge 24 points above Fri's 3948 cash session close, a pent-up knee-jerk headline reaction to Credit Suisse's rescue Sunday. Despite choppily swinging higher to 3978, it was all retraced through midnight. The retrace extended into a sharp reversal down to 3897 into and out of Europe's opens. And that was recovered to probe positive territory up to 3954.
New price points : The recovery extended to 3966 pre-open and ranged through the open down to 3947. Choppily probing higher is attacking 3975, still 3 points under earlier overnight highs.
Catalysts : CS rescue, No econs, FOMC hike-or-not, Recession.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP... Already recovered overnight drop.
Their influences : The intraday crowd has an odd masochistic tendency to duplicate to some degree an overnight drop that was already recovered pre-open, and that vulnerability doesn't lapse until exiting the morning bullishly -- above the 3963-3977 bias-up parameters would be helpful.
Triggers/Tactics : The pre-open tests of 3859 and 3866 weren't maintained for Mon's open to gap above, and post-open didn't quickly recover them. But only a buy signal has attracted reinforcements, and the 3963 bias-up signal did trigger, albeit late. Multiple distinct post-open patterns already suggest resolving the first hour's range should trend aggressively in that direction. And entering the noon hour above the 3977 bias-up target should make that obvious.
Alternative : Otherwise, the pattern remains vulnerable to resolving down, if only to duplicate to some degree the already recovered overnight drop, or to launch a deeper downleg.
Levels : UP: 3970, 3988, 3997... DOWN: 3911, 3877, 3852.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3981, targeting 3995.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3960, targeting 3943.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Update - 1:53 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : Overnight's 2-way market first surged on CS rescue headlines and soon extended to 3978, retracing it all through midnight on the way down to 3897 into and out of Europe's opens. Its pre-open recovery to 3966 extended higher to attack overnight highs.
New price points : The A.M. bias window probed higher to 3989, and its complete retracement was attacked after the noon hour's dip to 3954.
Catalysts : CS rescue, No econs, FOMC hike-or-not, Recession.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... Already recovered overnight drop.
Their influences : Grace Period was avoided by 2 ticks, and anyway the delay wasn't exploited either way, so we should treat this as a noN-BiAS... Entering the noon hour back under the A.M. bias-up signal and overnight highs undermines upside momentum and remains vulnerable to duplicating the overnight drop.
Triggers/Tactics : Entering the noon hour above the 3977 bias-up target would have made it obvious if sellers were marginalized, and so would have triggering the P.M. bias-up. Neither carries substantial bearish consequences, not if the next timing window resumes and extends the recovery. Fresh session highs should be productive and extend.
Alternative : This stage of the pattern doesn't tolerate well just overlapping recent highs. Still overlapping the bias-up signal undermines upside momentum until printing fresh afternoon highs above 3986, which should extend to 3997 and higher.
Levels : UP: 3970, 3988, 3997... DOWN: 3911, 3877, 3852.
Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Overnight's 2-way market first surged on CS rescue headlines and soon extended to 3978, retracing it all through midnight on the way down to 3897 into and out of Europe's opens. Its recovery greeted Mon's open at 3966 and extended higher through the A.M. bias window to 3989. The noon hour's dip to 3954 was recovered entirely through the close.
Catalysts : Pre-FOMC anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Bear Flag.
Their influences : Invalidating the week-old continuation pattern relies on recovering at least 3997-4000 prior highs, and uptrending resistance that coincides Tue at 4027-4035. Sun night's test of the pattern's uptrending support is so far isolated back above Fri's 3933 lows.
Premise : Sun night's already recovered overnight drop was never formally rejected Mon back above a relevant resistance through a timing window. Since no upside traction means that rallying is likely to begin by gapping up, gapping down is likely to extend deeper through the morning before pre-FOMC anxiousness takes hold.
Alternative : Mon afternoon's range doesn't require resolving before FOMC, as pre-FOMC anxiousness may already begin paralyzing price action -- albeit probably extending the range.
Levels : UP: 3997, 4016, 4033... DOWN: 3958, 3911, 3877.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3995, targeting 4008.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3972, targeting 3954.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.