Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:43 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s drop bottomed within 3 ticks of the decline''s 1983.50 target. Two buy signals triggered before the bias environment began lapsing. "Unfinished business above" at 2011.50 was attacked to within 2 ticks. The last half-hour retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the recovery, back down to 1994.00 support.

Overnight action''s new info...
.Yesterday''s late retracement is almost fully recovered to within 2-3 ticks of 2010.00.

If, then...
Significant selling pressure was met at yesterday''s lows, which tested and held targets. Optimism was restrained during yesterday afternoon''s relatively shallow bounce. "Unfinished business above" is left outstanding. Extending the rally should be easy -- so easy, that not extending it would suggest a much bigger decline is unfolding.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2000.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2011.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2014.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.


Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels - 10:49 AM

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Post-open extension wastes little time fulfilling targets.

The overnight rally''s hesitation under 2011.50 was overcome on the way to 2014.25 resistance. The open printed 2011.50 and recovered from a dip to test this morning''s 2017.75 bias-up target.

The target''s test held. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met. This morning''s 2011.50-2017.75 bias-up parameters should define price action until the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.

That is being put to the test now. A reaction down to 2009.00 was still overlapping 2011.50 at 10:30, which avoided invalidating the bias-up. A spike down just tested 2006.00, and it is reacting up to within 3 ticks of 2011.50.

Exiting the bias environment under the open''s 2007.50 low would be free to trend down, without being labeled "no-bias trending." So would waiting to trend down until the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. 

Meanwhile, it is likelier that this has just been more inappropriately timed selling, preparing to resume the rally that is next targeting 2029.00.


Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 12:08 PM

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WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2030.25
2023.25
...would target 2035.75
2029.00
Bias-down: under 2018.25
2011.50
...would target 2013.00
2006.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.


Daily Spot - 2:37 PM

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
More fresh lows Wednesday  prevented the pattern from bottoming. But testing 1.1820 support and then reversing back above 1.1865 would be likely to test 1.2000 resistance.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down to 1212.70 helped to undermine the confirmed breakout, keeping alive the potential for a corrective dip to either 1295.00 or to 1285.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s surge through 16.20 reacted down Wednesday to attack its breakout point. Closing back under 16.20 would reverse the trend back down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from testing 148-12/149- extended to 147-10 Wednesday to consolidate the recent relentless rally ahead of Friday''s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
After attacking it to within a dime Tuesday, the 47.45 target was tested overnight and held intraday Wednesday. A lower low down to 45.90 is possible, but need not be tested to complete a bottom. Closing below it would be bearish.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming to test 2.98 ahead was reacted down intraday, and Thursday''s EIA report won''t be greeted from a position of strength. But recovering from an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down would at this stage help to fulfill a bottom.


Closing Thoughts on the Market Today - 4:25 PM

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If Thursday''s open mimics Wednesday''s gap up... then we''ll have an interesting insight into Friday''s setup for the jobs report.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday''s opening print gapped up 17 points to the 2011.50 "unfinished business above," and reacted down. The first half-hour recovered to quickly fulfill the morning''s 2017.75 bias-up target, and reacted down. The bias environment''s exit quickly recovered the morning''s backing-and-filling by surging 17 points to begin testing the 2022.00-2023.00 target area.

And ranged sideways.

Significant price action Wednesday was essentially contained within the cusps between the three morning timing windows. The timing windows themselves were their setups. This is interesting, because all of Wednesday afternoon only ranged sideways. Was that just a big setup for Thursday?

Recovering Tuesday''s drop, back up from 1984.25 to Tuesday morning''s 2023.50 high, probably intends to probe higher. Wednesday''s "ineffectual pessimism" keeps alive that potential. Resuming the rally would next target 2029.00, then 2044.00 and 2052.00. An interim downdraft Thursday is possible, but a deep downdraft is unlikely.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
Wednesday afternoon''s sideways ranging produced three consecutive timing windows that overlapped each other entirely. The recovery had better shake off that potential inertia before it takes root through the morning. Gapping open is not enough -- trending out of the open will be needed in order to expect any decent trend intraday.