VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Professional Pre-Open Trading Plan - 7:35 AM
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Previously : Mon's open was greeted by a flat 3982-3996 range that warned of a choppy day ahead. Overnight ineffectual pessimism and a last-minute blip-down to 3974 suggested sellers were weak-handed. Upside was confirmed by holding the morning's bias-down signal, then triggering the afternoon's bias-up. Probing Fri's high to 4018 soon collapsed 54 points to 3964.
Overnight price points : Trending straight up from yesterday's 3964 low has extended through overnight timing windows to consolidate at the 3998 bias-up target, breaking higher to 4006.
Catalysts : Thu's pre-open PPI was being greeted with extreme last-minute pessimism, now suddenly last-minute optimism.
Setups/Patterns : Unfinished business, Pivot reversal, Relentless overnight trending.
Influences:
- Yesterday afternoon's 4021 bias-up target was left outstanding to become Unfinished business that requires eventual retest, especially so long as price action is within its orbit.
- Pivot Reversals are immediately productive unless rejected by gapping open sufficiently in the opposite direction. Today that is back above 3993-3994 which is being tested overnight. Only a very late extension yesterday after the Position-squaring window lapsed had made the Pivot Reversal viable at all, so rejecting it wouldn't be surprising.
- Relentless Overnight Trending setup can trigger bullish or bearish depending on the first 15 minutes traction.
Premise : PPI's reaction could undo the overnight rally, which itself is trying to undo yesterday's bearish close. The market is weighing that against the overnight rally having offset only a small degree of the bearish close's last-minute pessimism, which could still be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Whichever sponsorship gains traction, there is plenty of room above or below to extend intraday.
Alternative : Containing PPI's explosive response to pre-open, or simply a muted response, might only fluctuate choppily intraday.
Levels : UP: 4021, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880, 3835.
Stock Market Opening Strategy - 10:50 AM
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Previously : Trending straight up from yesterday's 3964 low had extended through overnight timing windows to consolidate at the 3998 bias-up target, breaking higher to 4006 ahead of PPI. Mon's last-minute pessimism was somewhat retraced by last-minute optimism.
New price points : Even last-minute optimism up to 4012 didn't prevent PPI headline's spike up to 4051. The 4048 resistance reacted down through the open to yesterday's lower prior highs at 4014. Consolidating since then is being resisted by 4035-4038.
Catalysts : PPI is done and only less influential reports are scheduled this week, with no more Fed speakers scheduled today.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET EXCEEDED... Headline reaction, Relentless Overnight Trending, Proxy Gap, Gap above all prior highs.
Their influences :
- PPI's reaction was already retraced 61.8% so its influence has lapsed.
- The first 15 minutes didn't discernibly trend, so no reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship took control.
- Proxy gap hasn't been in-play for awhile, and today's is 3990-4004.
- Today's 4027 gap above all prior highs follows a negative close so it won't require being filled from below.
Triggers/Tactics : Calculable support at 4020-4021 is being chipped away, but so far only overlapped. Its break would likely extend into the 3990-4004 proxy gap.
Alternative : Breaking above the consolidation could retest pre-open lows.
Levels : UP: 4021, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3990, 3933, 3877-3880.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4038, targeting 4053.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4016, targeting 3999.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Thoughts - 1:52 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Previously : Even last-minute optimism up to 4012 didn't prevent PPI headline's spike up to 4051. The 4048 resistance reacted down through the open to yesterday's lower prior highs at 4014. Consolidating since then is being resisted by 4035-4038.
New price points : Russian rockets have landed on Poland. Possibly inadvertent, but that's irrelevant now no matter how relevant it could be tomorrow (i.e. seems odd, so it's premature to pronounce the alleged bull market done). For now, after filling the gap back to yesterday's 3968 close, the next lower targets are 3948 and 3933... Not entering the noon hour under 4020 avoided signaling sellers taking control, so exiting the noon hour under the morning's 4009 low could have done it -- or else retest pre-open highs. Breaking lower by headline catalyst still qualifies.
Catalysts : PPI is done and only less influential reports are scheduled this week, although Wed's pre-open Retail Sales is still high-profile and could inhibit afternoon price action -- until Russian rockets hitting Poland took center stage.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET EXCEEDED... Headline reaction.
Their influences : Bounces during this window should hold its 3999 or 4016 parameters if tested. The headline reaction will no longer be influential above 3999. It's not so late in the afternoon to be reliable for crowding out countertrend buyers for the day.
Triggers/Tactics : Calculable support at 4020-4021 was already being chipped away, and now its likely test of the 3990-4004 proxy gap is done. That area should now be resistance if tested, but any bounce is still likely to fail on the way to 4048 and 4033.
Alternative : A bigger corrective bounce probably doesn't happen without some convincing disavowal.
Levels : UP: 4021, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3990, 3933, 3877-3880.
Closing Thoughts on the Market Today - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : All of Mon's late 4011-3964 collapse was retraced into Tue's PPI, which spiked up to 4051. The morning's 4009 low held Fri-Mon lower prior highs, and might have resolved up but for Russia (inadvertently?) bombing Poland. Collapsing to 3960 was retraced to 4010 before the close.
Catalysts : Russia-Poland fallout, Retail Sales.
Setups/Patterns : WedEX positioning, Ranging .
Their influences : Wed afternoon before Fri's expiration can be predictive of an expiration bias... Three consecutive sessions have largely overlapped each other.
Premise : Still consolidating and not yet rejecting the PPI spike through noon had become vulnerable to an afternoon rally. Russia-Poland headlines may have prevented it, maybe temporarily. But having ranged sideways for three sessions, the rubber band may need to be stretched to 3948 or 3933 before launching the next rally leg. Any lower could extend to 3908.
Alternative : Gapping up Wed would be credible for already retracing PPI's test of 4048 to 4066.
Levels : UP: 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4012, targeting 4027.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3977, targeting 3963.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.