VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs]
Previously : Any random 45-minute segment from Wed defines what the overnight sideways action had already told us to expect for the session. A bias toward 1-2 lower attractions interrupted by larger than normal bounces that would be likely to resolve down. Missing was an Equilibrium influence that would trend convincingly before suddenly reversing direction. Instead an inside day formed between 3963-3991, never threatening either end of Tue afternoon's range, while all but one timing window probed fresh session lows.
Overnight price points : Flat-to-lower ranging repeated the prior overnight pattern of rallying at midnight to greet Europe's opens at session highs, and trending back down to earlier lows. This time, from 3990, with a speedier and more productive reversal. A brief consolidation around yesterday's lows has extended aggressively to 3936.
Catalysts : Pre-open Philly Fed is reliably influential to price action, four Fed speakers (five spots).

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs]
Setups/Patterns : 3+Day trend consolidation, Inside day - gap open, Equilibrium.
Their influences :
- Wed had made it to 3-1/2 sessions of consolidating last Thursday's paradigm shift rally, to all but ensure launching another upleg -- but after a refueling pullback, e.g. 3948, 3933, presumably now playing out.
- Wed's downward biased inside day may have reflected weak-handed sentiment, but that now depends on closing back within its range since its lower-end is being probed.
- An equilibrium session spent trending convincingly in opposite directions remains possible.

DO IT     [Apply the output]
Premise : Presumably the overnight drop begins the refueling stretch of the 3+day trend consolidation. Perhaps it's nearer to attracting the necessary strong-handed buyers around 3948 or 3933 to already launch the next upleg today or tomorrow.
Alternative : Exiting a timing window under 3933 (or even under 3948) would open the door to a much deeper attraction at 3808, with interim support at 3911 and 3880.
Levels : UP: 4048... DOWN: 3948, 3933.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs]
Previously : Flat-to-lower ranging repeated the prior overnight pattern of rallying at midnight to greet Europe's opens at session highs, and trending back down to earlier lows. This time, from 3990, with a speedier and more productive reversal. A brief consolidation around yesterday's lows had extended aggressively.
New price points : 3933 was being consolidated when hawkish Fed speaker headlines had enabled the overnight drop to extend pre-open to 3913. A couple of wide post-open swings have now reacted back up to 3935 -- retracing the hawkish Fed speaker headlines.
Catalysts : Fed speaker on now, will re-appear this afternoon when price action may become inhibited ahead of tomorrow's LEI.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET EXCEEDED.
Their influences : Bias-down parameters should hold as resistance if tested.

DO IT     [Apply the output]
Triggers/Tactics : An immediately actionable buy signal was considered but the setup stalled. Another bounce is also stalling, and anyway comes too late to qualify as the same pattern. Resistance at 3933-3937 keeps alive potential for fresh lows at 3908-3911.
Alternative : Recovering 3937 would start to target 3948 and its recovery would become the next upleg.
Levels : UP: 4048... DOWN: 3948, 3933, 3908-3911.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

THU P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3949, targeting 3963.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3930, targeting 3912.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.