Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : A sideways overnight 3857-3885 range broke out during 8:00-8:30 window (ADP) and extended down through Thu's first half-hour to 3824. Two bounces to 3852 (on a Fed speaker headline) each resolved back down to the earlier low, ranging sideways ahead of Fri's NFP report.
Overnight price points : The 3825-3845 bias signals mostly contained the Globex range, swinging from one end of the afternoon range back to the other. A bounce back to the range's upper-end at 3849 reversed down at midnight. That extended through Europe's opens back to yesterday's lows at 3824. Its reaction is now testing 3835.
Catalysts : Layoffs heating up, NFP, ISM, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Too-late-to-break... Late bias-up.
Their influences : A sideways overnight range broke lower during the 8:00-8:30 ET window but has yet to retrace the earlier range, which isn't required, but likely... Although somewhat suspect for being triggered by a very last-minute Fed speaker headline, Thu afternoon's bias-up did trigger late and wasn't rejected, leaving outstanding its 3855 bias-up target to become unfinished business above.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Thu's close under 3839 makes today vulnerable either to launching a new downleg, or else rejecting the isolation aggressively. The pre-open Employment Situation report is a catalyst for either. Gapping up to and through Wed night's 3857-3885 too-late-to-break range is a likely path higher. So is recovering through the open from a knee-jerk reaction down to 3812.
Alternative : The latter scenario of a knee-jerk reaction down would risk being exacerbated by Friday Factors, which make the morning's bias tend to persist through the noon hour. Reliably influential econ reports due post-open would be too late to isolate a bearish open.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : The 3825-3845 bias signals mostly contained the Globex range, swinging from one end of the afternoon range back to the other. A bounce back to the range's upper-end at 3849 reversed down at midnight. That extended through Europe's opens back to probe yesterday's lows down to 3819.
New price points : The Employment Situation report's reaction spiked up to 3874. Its reaction down to 3836 was recovered higher to 3875, but trended back down through the first 15 minutes. Ultimately the gap back to yesterday's 3829 cash session close was touched. Reversing up has extended almost relentlessly, now testing 3893.
Catalysts : Layoffs heating up, NFP, ISM, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-UP... Too-late-to-break... Late bias-up... 3839 rejection... Friday Factors.
Their influences :
- NFP's spike up stopped abruptly at the 3874 61.8% retrace of Wed night's range, which had broken lower during the timing window that had all but required its 61.8% retrace. Our assumption yesterday was that its delayed retrace would be likely to reverse more substantially in the opposite direction, instead of resuming the breakout.
- Yesterday's unfinished business at 3855 is neutralized.
- Rejecting yesterday's isolation under 3839 required exiting the first 15 minutes above 3855, which was not, despite probing it substantially post-open. The next opportunity is the close, but we'll be monitoring for an afternoon reversal back down.
- The morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Potential bullish influence of the too-late-to-break setup was likely to surge into if not also through Wed night's range. The actual bullish behavior honored that premise. So, presumably the 30-35 point detour down is now being reversed more substantially than 3905-3910 above. The next higher gap proxy projection is 3893, now being tested. Recent shallow or brief pessimism in reaction to Fed speakers may become optimistic reactions today.
Alternative : Fed speaker reactions may still be pessimistic since absorbing earlier dips is already rewarded with higher prices. Also, it may be more than a technicality that 3839 hasn't yet been rejected, since 3855 didn't maintain its recovery through 9:45. Until the close, there will be potential to reverse down substantially.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3899, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

FRI P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3906, targeting 3921.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3888, targeting 3871.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.