Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 01-13-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Optimism schooling was back in session. Gapping up Tuesday to test 1938.00 had reversed down enough and in time to avoid triggering the 1927.25 bias-up signal. Dipping deeper through the noon hour targeted 1912.00 and 1907.00, and probed an extra point lower. Entering the noon hour at fresh afternoon highs triggered a short-squeeze that extended up to 1935.00. Overnight action's new info... Capture of US sailors triggered a reaction down to 1922.00 into the Globex open. But that was soon on its way to recovery, attacking 1943.00. Its reaction recovered briefly to probe fresh highs up to 1946.50. That's reacting back down now to attack 1936.00 as support. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's rally gained traction, which this morning should reward by probing higher during the morning. Already probing higher overnight might seem to confirm, but it also risks already fulfilling the higher probe -- especially having come so close to the next higher objective at 1948.00. That should be tested, and potentially also 1975.00, so long as the open doesn't probe into negative territory too deeply or for too long. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1941.50 would be likely also to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding the 1939.00 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1931.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1933.50 bias-up signal.

The least likely scenario is playing out. Gapping up above 1938.00 tried extending higher. For awhile. But bounces to 1942.00-1943.00 kept overlapping 1938.00. Stretching the rubber back down to the 1933.50 bias-up signal's support helped. But only momentarily -- bouncing to 1938.00 held as resistance. Eventually triggering late no-bias, after testing both bias-up parameters, has put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. The 1926.50 bias-down signal has been tested down to 1923.00. The 1921.50 bias-down target remains in-play. I'm skeptical. 1921.50 requires probing negative territory. That's not likely after the gap up from yesterday upside traction didn't invert by 9:45. Anyway, a late bias signal is less reliable than a timely signal. Exiting the bias environment above 1933.50 -- and preferably also above 1938.00-1938.99 would be likely to trend higher through the afternoon. Exiting the bias environment under 1921.50 would be credible for extending down, anyway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1934.25  1927.25 ...would target  1940.25  1933.50 Bias-down: under  1922.25 1915.50 ...would target  1914.75  1907.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The retest of Sunday's 1993.50 low had targeted 1881.00. Monday's retest of it by 1 point launched a detour to 1946.50. But 1881.00 was tested Wednesday down to 1878.00. And a late-afternoon bounce to 1895.50 was retraced back down to 1881.00 So, now what? The decline is especially vulnerable to dropping dozens of points more, whether overnight or at Thursday's open. Bouncing first would likely be temporary, as there is "unfinished business below" at the low's oversold RSIs. Bouncing first Thursday is possible, but probably not gapping up enough to negate Wednesday's bearish WedEX isn't likely. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. (Or scroll down in the blog.)

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1898.75  1891.75 ...would target  1906.00  1899.25 Bias-down: under  1887.00  1880.25 ...would target  1882.00  1875.00 Signal status: TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS, LATE INVALIDATION FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.