mid-day UPDATE 
Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Gravitating back up to 3925 tried breaking higher into Europe's opens, but reversed down from its 3933 peak to fresh overnight lows at 3912. A pre-open surge to 3931 was reversed down sharply post-open to 3912. Recovering overnight highs triggered the 3928 bias-up signal.
New price points : Friday Factors enabled probing well beyond the 3943 bias-up target to 3954. Now 3943 has held as support to trigger no-bias. But that isn't preventing no-bias trending from extending to 3964 anyway.
Catalysts : Expiration, Debt limit, Pre-open/post-open Fed speakers, Friday Factors.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIASES... Stalled correction, WedEX, No-bias trending.
Their influences : Multiple sessions fluctuating around 4008 before launching a reversal is likely searching for stronger-handed buyers to sponsor the next upleg -- 3925 and 3901 are this pattern's likeliest pullback limits... Meanwhile, the WedEX setup's first input was Wed's breakdown from a range. Combining that bearish input with another this afternoon would point down sharply from Mon's open... Now probing above the 3953 bias-up signal during a no-bias window will require retracing 3953 at some point.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Isolating another break back under 3925 was already well-rewarded this morning, even before this afternoon began probing above its bias-up signal when it had already become too late to trigger. These are weak-handed buyers, so retracing the 3953 bias-up signal is likely, and potentially serving as a rubber band to snap back down.
Alternative : Expiration's wild card doesn't dismiss no-bias trending from being retraced, but it can protract the retrace until from much higher much later.
Levels : UP: 3944, 3963, 3974… DOWN: 3901, 3884, 3860.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Today's price points : Gravitating back up to 3925 tried breaking higher into Europe's opens, but reversed down from its 3933 peak to fresh overnight lows at 3912. A pre-open surge to 3931 was reversed down sharply post-open to 3912. Triggering the morning's bias-up was exacerbated by Friday Factors, if not also by expiration's wild card that ignored a no-bias window and extended into the close to 3990.
Catalysts : Expiration, Debt limit, no Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Stalled correction, WedEX, No-bias trending.
Their influences : Last week's stalled rally around 4008 held its 3901-3925 correction to presumably resume the rally. WedEX's conflicted inputs leave no signal for Mon morning. Fri afternoon's no-bias trending was invalidated by exiting the bias window above both bias-up parameters.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Isolating another break back under 3925 was already well-rewarded Fri morning, but afternoon buying pressure extended the recovery. This will often encounter backing-and-filling upon exiting the weekend, with 3968 being the first likely candidate if not also back to Fri afternoon's 3953 lower prior highs (and also its prematurely broken bias-up signal).
Alternative : Now having returned into the range that was fluctuating around 4008, the eventual reward should be trending above its upper-end. This can begin by gapping up into its upper-end at 4015-4020 or higher.
Levels : UP: 3944, 3963, 3974… DOWN: 3901, 3884, 3860.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

MON A.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3998, targeting 4011.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3974, targeting 3957.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.