Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 01-26-2016

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1883.50 1876.50 ...would target  1889.25  1882.25 Bias-down: under  1872.50  1865.50 ...would target 1867.00  1860.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Bouncing 13 points into and out of Monday's noon hour peaked at 1895.00. But the bias environment exit was attacking the morning's 1882.00 low. Plunging from there tested 1868.00 into the close, bouncing momentarily to attack 1874.00. Overnight action's new info... The decline tried resuming overnight, dipping to 1868.00 and then recovering up to 1872.75. Then it really resumed, dipping to fresh lows. And lower. Greeting Europe's opens at 1856.00 reacted down even further to attack 1851.00, which was soon recovered. And now so has the entire overnight drop, as a fresh high is attacking 1880.00. If, then... Gaining traction for its effort Monday afternoon entitled the decline to lower lows this morning. This setup can invert if already rewarded overnight. Meanwhile, anything more substantial than an isolated test of 1856.00 would have suggested the corrective rally ended already. Yesterday's decline was rewarded already. Now the test of 1856.00 can be isolated by exiting the overnight timing window back in positive territory. Then the recovery's risk is at 1880.25-1881.00. Strong-handed buyers would either quickly exceed it. or else delay its test patiently. Weak-handed sponsorship would test it quickly before reversing down to duplicate the overnight drop to some degree. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1873.00would be unlikely to trigger the 1876.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open aove 1880.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Doubly-renewed bias-up. The open's blip-up immediately pierced 1881.00. It was soon exceeded to attack 1886.00. Still it reacted down to 1874.50. The opening rally's post-open reaction down still recovered up to 1892.25. The 1876.50 bias-up signal was renewed above its 1882.25 bias-up target AND doubly-renewed above its 1887.50 renewed bias-up target at 10:15. All of which is testing 1891.50,  which remains a critical retracement of yesterday afternoon's drop, as it was at the time. And RSIs just diverged negatively into its test. That's not a sell signal, but it does signal vulnerability to at least a corrective dip with potential down to 1884.00. Back under 1888.00 would suggest the dip is underway. Extending above 1891.50 -- and not just overlapping it -- might find obligatory resistance at yesterday's 1895.00 highs. But just extending above 1891.50 would already suggest the rally to 1915.00-1920.00 remains intact.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1902.50  1895.50 ...would target  1909.00  1902.00 Bias-down: under  1891.00  1884.00 ...would target  1885.50  1878.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up triggered by attack on prior highs. Rallying this morning was consolidated at 1888.00-1894.00. Resuming the rally at noon extended to attack 1899.50. A dip to 1894.00 recovered enough to trigger the 1895.50 bias-up signal. That was extended to retest 1899.50.

But rather than extend up to the 1902.00 bias-up target, the retest of 1899.50 reacted back down to the 1895.50 bias-up signal. That dip has extended more than 2 points under the 1894.00 interim low.

The 1902.00 bias-up target can still become "unfinished business above." But that requires recovering the bias-up signal's 1894.00 last relative low at the 2:30 bias environment exit. Nothing precludes the bias environment exit from simply collapsing. But coming back all this way from overnight lows just to attack prior highs does seem suddenly pessimistic -- which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1905.00 1898.00 ...would target  1911.25  1904.50 Bias-down: under  1894.25  1887.50 ...would target 1888.00  1881.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Two attacks no 1900.00 failed to break higher. Stopping pessimistically short of touching Friday's prior highs suggests that any reaction down is only temporary. So, reacting down into Tuesday's final hour to 1988.00 is likely to recover. A late surge did recover up to 1997.00, but Crude Oil tumbling post-close has triggered 1988.00's retracement in sympathy. Resuming the rally would next target 1913.00 and potentially 1924.00. Otherwise, while a deeper reaction down Wednesday is possible, extending any deeper would likely be only temporary. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.