VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Review - 7:24 AM
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Previously : Thu's 4193 cash session close had already collapsed to 4157 amid post-close earnings. A choppy overnight range greeted Fri's pre-open Payrolls at 4170 and the headline triggered a drop to 4133. Bouncing through the bias-down window to 4194 was almost all retraced by collapsing into the afternoon down to 4135.
Overnight price points : Further pullback out of the weekend was likely. Sun night gapped down into a narrow fluctuation around Fri's 4132-4135 lows. Finally breaking lower at midnight has trended down to 4106, then bounced to 4120.
Catalysts : Earnings, no econs.
Setups/Patterns : Confirmed breakout, overbought RSIs... Relentless Overnight Trending.
Their influences : Wed's confirmed breakout that requires at least an eventual higher close makes the current decline a temporary pullback, as does the 4208 high's overbought RSIs that require at least a retest... So far, only trending in one direction can give the open an opportunity to signal either that reinforcements have arrived, or countertrend sponsorship.
Premise : The current overnight low at 4106 is testing several 61.8% retracements of the rally since Wed's FOMC reactions. It's also fully testing Wed afternoon's 4112-4125 last higher lows. Both are candidates for ending a simple correction. So, signaling a reversal through the open would be credible for launching a complete recovery back to last week's highs.
Alternative : Having already fulfilled the first available pullback candidate, failing to hold it through the open would put into play the next lower candidate, which is essentially 4070-4080.
Levels : UP: 4166, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4118, 4074, 4053.
Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels - 10:43 AM
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Previously : Further pullback out of the weekend was likely. Sun night gapped down into a narrow fluctuation around Fri's 4132-4135 lows. Finally breaking lower at midnight has trended down to 4106, then bounced to 4120.
New price points : A pre-open bounce u to the 4125 bias-down target was immediately exceeded up to 4132, then immediately began consolidating around the pre-open high. Its buyers capitulated upon entering the bias window, and quickly extended through overnight lows to 4104.
Catalysts : Earnings, no econs.
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-DOWN... Confirmed breakout, overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Wed's confirmed breakout that requires at least an eventual higher close makes the current decline a temporary pullback, as does the 4208 high's overbought RSIs that require at least a retest... So far, only trending in one direction can give the open an opportunity to signal either that reinforcements have arrived, or countertrend sponsorship.
Triggers/Tactics : Retesting the pullback limit candidates intraday still enables this morning to complete the pullback. But meanwhile a renewed bias-down environment that prints fresh lows after 10:30 is likelier to extend down than to recover. And exiting the bias window under 4108-4112 would likelier extend to the next pullback candidates around 4070-4080.
Alternative : Bounces during a renewed bias-down window have room up to the 4125/4138 bias-down parameters before starting to signal the trend reversing back up.
Levels : UP: 4166, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4118, 4074, 4053.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4129, targeting 4143.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4113, targeting 4100.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:42 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
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Previously : Sun night gapped down to fluctuate narrowly around Fri's 4132-4135 lows. Breaking lower at midnight extended to 4106 was retraced through Mon's open up to 4132 then retested down to 4104 through the first hour.
New price points : Bouncing again probed fresh post-open highs up to 4137 into the bias window lapse. Flat-to-lower ranging into the noon hour has held 4116.
Catalysts : Earnings, no econs.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... Confirmed breakout, overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Wed's confirmed breakout that requires at least an eventual higher close makes the current decline a temporary pullback, as does the 4208 high's overbought RSIs that require at least a retest... So far, only trending in one direction can give the open an opportunity to signal either that reinforcements have arrived, or countertrend sponsorship.
Triggers/Tactics : More than hold as support, the pullback limit candidates are more about attracting price than about completing their post-open retests. And that can start chipping away at their support, so fresh lows would extend to the next pullback candidates around 4070-4080.
Alternative : Exiting the P.M. bias window in rally mode and probing fresh intraday highs would likely fill the gap back to Fri's 4148 close, if not also slingshot back to last week's highs.
Levels : UP: 4166, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4118, 4074, 4053.
Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Sun night gapped down to fluctuate narrowly around Fri's 4132-4135 lows. Breaking lower at midnight extended to 4106 was retraced through Mon's open up to 4132 then retested down to 4104 through the first hour. Bouncing again into the bias window lapse probed fresh post-open highs up to 4137. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-down to 4111.
Catalysts : Earnings, no econs, Powell speaks, Biden speaks.
Setups/Patterns : Confirmed breakout, overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Wed's confirmed breakout that requires at least an eventual higher close makes the current decline a temporary pullback, as does the 4208 high's overbought RSIs that require at least a retest.
Premise : A structural retrace and a 61.8% retrace of Wed's FOMC reaction isolated its pre-open tests, and again during the morning, then all but one into the close. The highest at 4125 was still being overlapped. A return to last week's 4208 high or higher to 4231 is free to begin by gapping up Tue, but that difficult ahead of Powell's noon hour remarks that are expected to be more hawkish than last week. Perhaps also difficult ahead of Biden's evening speech that is expected to propose taxing corporate buybacks.
Alternative : Mon's flat-to-lower ranging could persist, but it wouldn't take much effort to extend the pullback to its next candidates around 4070-4080.
Levels : UP: 4166, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4118, 4074, 4053.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4135, targeting 4153.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4110, targeting 4093.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.