Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 02-17-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday morning's gap up preserved much of the holiday rally. But post-open action dipped. Not immediately -- in fact, late enough to indicate its sponsorship was weak-handed and temporary. It was meanwhile productive, but testing the morning's 1871.50 bias-down target launched a reversal that stopped less than 1 point short of holiday's high at 1892.00 where the afternoon ranged sideways. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday afternoon's ranging soon broke higher to 1897.50. That was already calculated to be this morning's bias-up target. Then it broke lower to test this morning's 1882.00 bias-down signal. Rallying into and out of Europe's opens has extended to 1905.75. If, then... Despite buyers not gaining traction yesterday afternoon, a reward was still in order for having absorbed the morning's dip. Its minimum higher objective at 1907.00 is being attacked pre-open. And despite buyers not gaining traction yesterday, the rally can resume immediately by gapping up. And by maintaining the gap up. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1907.00 would suggest the balance of the morning will extend higher, potentially targeting 1920.00. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1898.25 would be unlikely to exceed the 1897.50 bias-up target at 10:15, and then not to renew the bias-up signal.

Open's surge evolves into bigger rally. The open's surge through 1907.00 was only temporary, despite touching 1911.75. Its reaction down fell to 1904.00, but in a singular leg that was still overlapping 1907.00 at 9:45. So, 1907.00 wasn't recovered, but neither was it rejected. Being a singular downleg, it was still the first reaction down from the previous trend's extreme. That leg has a horrible track record of triggering a durable reversal signal. Even the most bearish scenarios tend first to retrace the first reaction by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. So, reversing down was even less likely. The optimal pullback would have stopped 4-6 ticks higher. Nevertheless, not triggering a sell signal by 9:45 had further marginalized sellers. Triggering a buy signal extended higher toward the next higher objective at 1920.00. 1920.00 has been attacked to within 6 ticks. Back under 1915.25 would trigger a corrective dip targeting 1911.00. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the high would require its retest, presumably up to the 1920.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1926.75 1923.25 ...would target  1932.50  1929.00 Bias-down: under  1918.25  1914.75 ...would target 1912.25  1908.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Is bullish FOMC news already reflected? Potential to 1920.00 was fulfilled before a sell signal could trigger, even if only for a corrective dip. Consolidating back down to 1917.00 resolved up to 1924.50. Now the afternoon's 1923.25 bias-up signal has been overlapped to signal noN-bias. No higher target is in-play, and no required afternoon range -- although noN-bias does tend to hold the bias signal anyway. That may be the case now, ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Minutes. Dipping ahead of the news is testing 1920.00 as support. Apart from retesting the highs as a knee-jerk reaction to the news, no higher objective is in-play. And a lot of optimism is reflected in this morning's rallly.

No traction was gained during Wednesday afternoon timing windows. The bias environment exit was probing above the noon hour's highs, but the final hour's entry did not better. Much like Tuesday afternoon's setup. Buyers were rewarded by fulfilling the rally's potential up to 1920.00. Still testing it or overlapping it at Wednesday's close has avoided putting into play any higher targets. Extending higher Thursday without delay  would require gapping up. Much like Tuesday afternoon's setup. Similar setups that appear consecutively tend to resolve differently from each other. This would seem to doom gapping up, if not preclude gapping up, at all. Also, since WedEX triggered actively bullish to suggest that Friday afternoon would rally, buyers can rest on their laurels with that downside protection. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1931.25 1927.75 ...would target  1938.25  1934.75 Bias-down: under  1920.00  1916.50 ...would target 1913.00  1909.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.