Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's close and Wednesday's open each were within ticks of 2780.00, separated by a relatively narrow overnight range. The range was maintained through the noon hour while price fluctuated between either end. The afternoon's reaction to FOMC Minutes -- the most volatile I've seen in years -- probed each extreme momentarily to 2791.25 and 2773.75. Still the 2786.00-2787.00 close held within the range at its upper-end. The session left no "unfinished business" and contained no predictive value. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday's final hour had ranged relatively narrowly, which persisted during Globex's first several hours. Favorable trade talk headlines triggered a 13-point surge up to 2798.00, interrupted by a Running Correction. Narrow hovering at the high plateaued until breaking lower just after midnight, retracing the Running Correction's lower quadrant at 2792.25. The surge's first leg was eventually retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back down to yesterday's "lower prior highs" at 2787.00. Three hours ranging narrowly suddenly collapsed down to 2783.50 while I was warning of exactly that during the Market Tour recording. The overnight rally's Running Correction was complex, creating a "new Globex trend extreme." If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday had not decisively confirmed Friday's close above 2751.00-2757.00. Wednesday didn't reject it, either, and held Tuesday's range. Rallying to 2798.00 would seem to settle the matter, and decisively, if developed intraday. But the overnight surge's retracement back into yesterday's range is threatening to isolate the 2798.00 test to the overnight, forming a bearish Isolation setup. That would reject the upside, because this instance has an added degree of difficulty from the overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme." It requires intraday retest, often the same day, so overcoming its upside attraction would reflect even greater rejection. Look out below if the rejection triggers a Globex-flip, as well, which I describe in detail during the Market Tour recording. Having said all that, trying but failing to trigger an Isolation or Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.75 would be likely to trigger the 2790.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Upside rejected again. Despite probing yesterday's highs up to 2798.00 overnight, Wednesday's 2786.00 cash session close was reversed before the open. As was the 2784.50 earlier Globex low, and both were maintained through Thursday's opening 15 minutes of volatility. Both the Isolation and Globex-flip setups have formed.

The former setup carries substantially lower objectives, potentially 2730.00 and 2681.00. The latter setup influences this morning's direction, and then also tomorrow morning's direction if the afternoon doesn't bounce.

Bias-down triggered, but wasn't renewed because the 2772.25 bias-down target was still being touched at 10:15. The 2769.00 pre-10:15 low has also held, but its break would have potential to the 2753.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back into last Thursday-Friday's gap. One more point of interest, regardless of the potential downside objectives... Gapping down and exiting the open back under 2776.00-2777.00 continues to hold the door open for still forming a topping pattern. Recovering through the close would likely shut that door.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2783.25 2782.75 ...would target 2789.75 2789.25 Bias-down: under 2774.25 2774.00 ...would target 2767.75 2767.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Opening drop retraced only back to the open. The 2777.75 opening print quickly extended down to confirm the Globex-flip setup. That confirmation represented most of this morning's drop, which got to 2769.00 before 10:15. There has yet to be a lower low, but the bias environment remained under pressure.

The noon hour recovered to test the 2777.75 open, attacking 2782.00. But the 2782.75 bias-up signal wasn't even touched, and now 2777.75 is being probed as support.

Just avoiding an afternoon bounce -- not necessarily extending down -- would suggest the bearish Globex-flip influence will stretch through tomorrow morning, too. Any fresh low would next target 2753.00-2757.50. None of which even considers the Isolation setup, which would target at least 2730.00. But back above 2783.75 would start to signal a recovery underway.

A lot of selling pressure went into triggering Thursday's Globex-flip setup. Probing 10 points above Wednesday's ~2788.00 highs was reversed to open under the earlier 2784.50 Globex low. The 2778.00 open extended down 9 points to 2769.00 through the 10:15 bias timing window. That's 30 points under the overnight high, a lot of selling pressure. This is probably responsible for limiting the bearish Globex-flip's morning influence only preventing a recovery, and not extending down. Bouncing through the noon hour held tests of the open. More important, the afternoon bias environment did not bounce, signaling that the bearish Globex-flip's influence would persist through the following morning. In fact, the afternoon trended down to sharply lower lows attacking 2764.00. A bounce was retraced to retest 2764.00, where RSIs made higher lows. Firming through the position-squaring window began surging to eventually attack 2776.00 at the close. Now a great deal of buying pressure has been expended, during a window not likely to gain traction for its effort, and without recovering a relevant level. Resuming the decline would next target 2753.00-2757.50, and then 2730.00 to fulfill the Isolation setup's objective. Gapping up above Wednesday's 2788.00 highs would suggest the 2798.00 "new Globex trend extreme" retest was underway, first. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2779.25 2779.00 ...would target 2784.75 2784.50 Bias-down: under 2770.00 2770.00 ...would target 2663.75 2663.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.