Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Through the prior close... Overnight action''s new info... If, then... First Trade... Distinction without a difference? The pre-open dip to 2101.50 had reacted up to 2015.25. Suddenly, the rubber band greeting the open was stretched in the other direction. Rather than snapping up, it snapped back down to retest 2101.50. But 2101.50 support held. So did 2103.25 resistance, the bias-up signal. It was still being tested to within 1 tick within 3 minutes of 10:15, after recovering from two more probes under 2101.50. Ultimately, the 2103.25 bias-down signal wasn''t recovered. This is a bias-down environment, late or otherwise. It''s too late to be invalidated simply by recovering back above the bias-down signal by 10:30. Now invalidating bias-down must avoid a fresh post-open low under 2100.00, and recover the 2105.00 post-open high by 11:30. Currently, the 2103.25 is still being overlapped. But back under 2101.50 would probably prevent us considering another buy signal, at least prior to fulfilling the 2097.50 bias-down target if not also probing under it by 2 points deeper. 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI)) Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) If not for the new Grexit drama... then Monday''s session could have ended flat like Monday did. But the range would have been much wider and less subdued. Not that Monday was terribly subdued -- it was volatile enough to expect a substantial reaction to news.. Pattern points... (Setups and technicals) Not extending down wasn''t for lack of trying. The open''s drop ultimately triggered the bias-down. The afternoon''s drop took RSIs oversold. There were interim drops, but they were book-ended by strong-handed sellers. And then they were overwhelmed. Last week''s upside target at 2101.50 continues to be influential. It was tested during each of Monday''s timing windows. I had expected its last test to break 6-points lower, targeting 2095.50. Instead, it was recovered to momentarily probe a fresh high, closing 6 points above 2101.50. Friday''s breakout wasn''t confirmed Monday. That''s not necessarily bearish, and Friday''s trend high close still requires at least one more. What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities) 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:49 AM
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Friday morning''s dueling Grexit headlines (deal/no-deal) stopped influencing price action, word of a delay did then drive the market down. Through the open. Its fourth consecutive gap down was the first not to hold a test of the bias-down signal, and instead held a test of the bias-down target down to 2082.50. Apparently, that finally stretched the rubber band sufficiently, since the balance of the session rallied to 2108.50 as an accord between the Eurogroup and Greece was reached. Expiration and the Friday Factor helped. The last outstanding upside target at 2101.50 was neutralized, while creating a new objective with overbought RSIs into the final hour.
Goodbye, 26-point rally. Hello, 6-tick trading range. Price began trending down under 2106.00 ahead of Europe''s opens, slowing and consolidating within a couple of ticks of 2101.50 support. Its momentary touch has reacted up to attack 2104.00.
Is Greece still there? I mean that figuratively, although someone in the vicinity might want to check for a pulse. Perhaps their seeming non-existence is just an illusion created by the sudden relative quiet, compared to last week''s headline saturation. The quiet can facilitate a gap down, but it''s currently too shallow to prevent retesting Friday''s high.
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger this morning''s 2103.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2107.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down, and exiting the open above 2108.50 would be likely to trigger the 2109.50 bias-up signal.
Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:47 AM
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Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 12:03 PM
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2107.00
...would target 2113.75
2111.50
Bias-down: under 2103.75
2101.50
...would target 2098.00
2095.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot - 2:35 PM
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Gapping down Monday and immediately trending back up duplicated Monday''s gap down that had immediately trended back up, albeit on a smaller scale that didn''t gap down as deeply nor recover as substantially. No new signal was generated by the pattern.
Sunday night''s 1190.60 low fulfilled the 1191.50 target''s test, and recovered to open Monday probing back above 1200.00. A required third lower close remains outstanding, and an intraday test of 1191.50 remains desirable. So, the decline probably hasn''t yet ended, and could meanwhile visit the 1185.00 lower-end of its target area. Closing back above 1222.50 would suggest otherwise.
Fresh lows overnight were recovered in time for Monday''s open to gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly in positive territory. The "ineffectual optimism" probably didn''t end the decline.
Firming at Sunday night''s open waited until regular trading hours before firming back to the 145-10 upper-end of the recent trading range. There is still no buy signal or sell signal, but Monday''s behavior is more consistent with bottoming.
Gapping down under uptrending support Monday tested the trendline''s 49.00 key low. It held, but closing back above the trendline -- then intersecting at 50.50 -- would have signaled the break was false. A bounce did touch 50.50. Closing higher Tuesday would still be credible for returning to prior high, but the pattern meanwhile is vulnerable to extending down to new lows.
Gapping open to fresh highs Sunday night at 3.04 still gapped up, but was reversed into negative territory under 2.94 through Monday''s open. The balance of the session trended down deeper into negative territory under 2.90. Closing Tuesday under Monday''s low would reverse the trend down.
Market Performance Signals - 4:24 PM
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Monday''s session, in retrospect, was defined by its fifth consecutive opening gap down, which didn''t extend. It wasn''t just the drop, and its lack of follow-through. It was the multiple intraday drops that didn''t extend.
Yellen''s testimony Tuesday morning may have inhibited trending Monday. The proximity to fresh highs without reversing down suggests at least a probe is likely. No durable trend in either direction is likely to be a reaction to anything Yellen is going to say.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:37 PM
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2108.50
...would target 2116.25
2114.00
Bias-down: under 2104.75
2102.50
...would target 1998.00
1995.50
Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.50
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2111.00