Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Already trending down sharply overnight to 2906.00, Friday's 2928.00 open would dip again to probe relevant levels. But the probe was isolated between 9:45-10:15 and rejecting the relevant levels was rewarded by rallying to its 2976.00. Trending back down into the final hour probed the overnight low down to 2898.00 where last Friday's last-minute 90-point surge had essentially originated. Another melt-up developed in reaction to a Fed speaker's favorable headline, peaking at 2984.00. The close dipped back to 2956.00, holding a test of the morning's high as resistance. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) More geographical quarantines over the weekend helped to trigger Sunday night's gap down back to within 3 points of Friday's late 2913.50 buy signal. The open probed Friday's low by 55 points down to 2833.00. Eventually extending to new lows hit its 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down at 2819.00 before midnight. Two blips-up have quickly returned to flat-lining at limit down. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday afternoon's break lower was on the precipice of melting down into the weekend, saved by a headline's knee-jerk reaction. The decline was likely to resume even if Friday's late squeeze had extended coming out of the weekend. And we expected only temporary, obligatory support upon testing August's prior lows around 2826.00. August's lows might become resistance after the open's likely additional 2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} drop by quickly repricing at it the "Level-1" 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down. I estimate that to be 2762.00, which happens to be between my next lower calculable objectives for the ongoing pattern at 2782.50 and 2725.25. Those levels will be relevant if trading is not halted, but it otherwise will be repriced again 15 minutes later, possibly all the way to its 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} Level-2 for another halt. I'll calculate inflection points and identify any patterns between limits, but my levels don't interact with, or supersede, the CME limits. Until some actual trading were to develop, there won't be any information to identify actionable signals. And trading down to Level-3's 20{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit will halt futures for the day. See my circuit breakers cheat sheet below... I caution against trading this session. Even if a setup were to develop, the negative consequences are much higher than normal to being blind-sided by a sudden large bar against your position. I see no incentive to becoming expert at trading this sort of environment, which rarely happens, and which lasts for a very short time. We'll soon enough be past it, and the market's next phase will be more similar to the past couple of weeks of very wide intraday ranges that offer very satisfying intraday moves.

CIRCUIT BREAKER CHEAT SHEET 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, and 20{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} ESTIMATED prices: 2762.00, 2584.00, 2376.00 Before 3:25 ET: Level-1 (7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}) or Level-2 (13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}) halts trading for 15 minutes. Anytime: Level-3 (20{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}) halts trading for the remainder of the session. After 3:25 ET: Only Level-3 can be triggered.

First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Markets are trading well under this morning's parameters. P.S. Wash your hands!

Post-post-open bounce returns to the overnight low. A second halt wasn't needed. The overnight 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down at 2819.00 was repriced to 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} at the 2760.00 open, triggering a Level-1 halt for 15 minutes. Re-opening only 16 points lower to 2744.00 extended down momentarily to 2715.00 and recovered within 3 minutes back up to the 2760.00 open. The recovery extended aggressively to 2811.50, up 96 points in a matter of minutes, just like any Friday afternoon. But this isn't Friday afternoon, so the recovery's sponsorship won't be saved by the bell. The initial sentiment extreme's retracement identified the reaction's attraction near the 2819.00 overnight low's "higher prior low."

A more elaborate test of the open's 2811.50 sentiment extreme is now resolving down. Its likely objective at 2772.00 is being attacked, with potential down to 2750.50. And lower.

Beware of being lulled into complacency or bullishness by a single upleg off of an historic gap down. That's less the product of strong-handed buying than it is strong-handed sellers patiently awaiting bounces. And don't be confident that the open's low won't be retested, or even broken on the way down to the 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} curb. Today's range potential is wide open.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2849.00 2846.00 ...would target 2868.00 2865.00 Bias-down: under 2805.00 2802.00 ...would target 2780.00 2777.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The other shoe is dropping. The post-post-open surge from 2716.00 up to 2820.00 had corrected down to 2774.00. Another upleg through the bias environment exit touched 2836.00, which held a retest during the noon hour. Reacting down through the noon hour exit has returned down to 2774.00. And lower. The afternoon bias-down signal triggered and already met its 2777.00 target, probing lower to 2752.00. The market already seems to be recognizing the open's brave reaction up, and its later follow-through, hasn't actually reversed the trend up. Maybe the reaction has even peaked. If that's the market's realization, then the paradigm is now shifting to exiting before the low's presumed retest -- let alone the 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} collar. Back above the 2802.00 bias-down signal would have potential to resume this morning's rally. The session otherwise is unlikely just to range sideways through the close.

Did it, or didn't it? Limit down overnight at 2819.00, halt at the 2760.00 open, and fresh lows at 2715.00. All was recovered to rally 121 points to the morning's 2836.00 high. RSIs diverging into the noon hour's Double Top launched a 108-point reversal down to 2728.00. RSIs diverging into the bias environment low launched a 58-point bounce up to 2786.50. The close was under the open, or opens as the case may be -- 2760.00 and then 2744.00 -- and much of the session developed above both. Not immediately recovering Tuesday would be vulnerable to trending down again, if not already trending down overnight. Potential for immediately recovering Tuesday relies on holding the 2782.50 and 2725.25 "next lower calculable objectives" that I had described in the morning's First Trade post. They essentially define the range of Monday's last bounce without closing lower. But having failed to close above the range, holding its test requires rallying out of it without delay if not gapping up. Whether resolving up, or down, or maintaining Monday's range, the volatility shows no signs of subsiding. Trends that would normally stretch over days are being produced intraday within a couple of hours. Such pliability suggests the market remains willing both to extend the trend, and to counter-trend, regardless of how much each has reacted. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2774.00 2771.00 ...would target 2801.50 2798.50 Bias-down: under 2728.25 2725.25 ...would target 2711.00 2708.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.