Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 03-10-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s open gapped up from Friday''s test of the 2066.00 target. The morning''s bias-up signal was neither triggered nor rejected, which is a rare "noN-bias." So was the afternoon''s bias, an even rarer one-day combination. That''s as much buying pressure as can be expend without gaining traction for the effort, and just enough to avoid attracting sellers. The anticipated template for a temporary bounce fulfilled only its bounce portion.

Overnight action''s new info...
Selling resumed immediately, dipping 3 points to 2075.50. A drop at midnight attacked Monday''s 2072.00 open. Despite ranging narrowly through Europe''s opens, the decline resumed one hour later -- now fulfilling the template''s other portion by testing its 2060.00 target by 5 ticks.

If, then...
Yesterday I noted that the temporary bounce template was being slow-played, and a near-term probe under Friday''s low couldn''t be avoided. Saturday I had noted that the fresh low could form a bottom if it were not delayed. While Monday did delay the fresh low, its overnight test can be associated with Monday -- which COULD still allow a near-term bottom to form. Relentless overnight trending can reverse sharply at the open, but usually not if the reversal hasn''t happened during the opening sequence.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2072.00 would be the earliest indication that the 2065.75 bias-down signal might not trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.25 would be likely also exceed the 2065.75 bias-down target through 10:30, which would renew the bias-down signal. Its renewed bias-down target at 2060.00 is already being tested pre-open, but its next lower targets would be 2056.00 and 2048.50.

Probing the next lower target.

That answers that. Apparently, sellers WERE refueled by delaying the 2060.00 reversal target, the second portion of yesterday''s temporary bounce template. 

This morning''s bias-down target wasn''t even touched post-open, which renewed the bias-down signal at 10:15. The renewed bias-down target at 2056.00 was met already pre-open, but it has been retested post-open.

In fact, the renewed bias-down target was ALSO being probed at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal again. That eventually gets to be less influential, being so far removed from the original pattern from which the bias parameters were derived.

But this is still a bias-down environment, now attacking 2051.00. And so long as momentum remains intact, the next lower objective in-play is. 2048.50-2048.75.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2056.25
2055.00
...would target 2061.75
2060.50
Bias-down: under 2048.00
2047.75
...would target 2042.25
2041.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday''s narrow ranging made the next leg likely to begin abruptly, which the overnight drop did. But it also gapped down sharply to already test its next lower maximum objective at 1.0750. And that was probed under 1.0700, putting into play 1.0590, so long as 1.0790 isn''t recovered first.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply lower lows Monday night fulfilled the 1154.00 target that would have been decisive if met before the close, so the target was lowered. But Monday''s 1154.00 target was still met before Tuesday''s open, and its reaction up did probe positive treritory. So, after probing negative territory intraday, recovering to close positive Tuesday would signal a bottom had formed. The next lower target in-play is otherwise 1148,00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Deeper lows Monday overnight were retraced in time to open flat Tuesday. Another dip into negative territory attacked the overnight lows, but didn''t touch them, and the decline''s momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday''s bounce from Friday''s low had held its 156-24 resistance, but Tuesday gapped up above 157-17 and extended to 158-25. Closing any higher would target 159-22, but backing-and-filling is now likeiler -- especially if the broader market decline were to begin recovering.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday''s break under the 50.00 sell signal wasn''t confirmed Monday, which bounced to test 50.00 as resistance. But Tuesday''s gap down to attack 49.00 attacked and then exceeded Friday''s probe under 49.00, again signaling a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s drop didn''t extend Tuesday, but neither was it rejected, as the session ranged narrowly without even threatening the 2.77 buy signal.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2054.50
2053.25
...would target 2060.25
2059.00
Bias-down: under 2042.25
2041.00
...would target 2035.25
2034.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.