Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night was limit down at 2819.00, Monday's open was halted at 2760.00, its re-open fell to fresh lows at 2715.00. Testing both 2782.50 and 2725.25 -- "the next lower calculable objectives" that I had described before the open -- reacted up 121 points to the morning's 2836.00 high. The lower objectives were retested by a 108-point drop that reacted up 58 points to 2786.50. A last-minute drop back under the 2760.00 and 2744.00 opens went out neither rejecting nor holding the next lower objectives. Monday's Dow, S&Ps, and NDX posted their worst absolute point losses on record. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's last-minute reaction down from 2786.50 had touched 2721.00 during the close. The Globex open probed fresh lows at 2695.00 and quickly reacted up with Asia's opens before any complexity could form at the low. The reaction extended through midnight to 135 points at 2850.00, 14 points above Monday morning's high. Europe's opens were greeted back under Monday's highs, which soon resumed the rally up to 2878.00-2879.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Not immediately recovering Tuesday would have been likely to resume the decline today, if not already trending down overnight. Potential for rallying this morning depends first on already rallying overnight out of the 2725.25-2782.50 range, and then also on recovering any relevant resistance tested along the way. So, what relevant resistance is being tested? Only the prior downleg's "higher prior lows" at 2878.50 from the prior Friday. This structure is commonly tested during corrections. The next set of higher prior lows if 2903.50. Any relevant resistance or prior high tested during the open must maintain its recovery through the open. Especially today because the open is also trying to form a "session-long rally" by rejecting yesterday's last downtrending action. So, failing to trigger the setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish. Meanwhile, the overnight rally only confirms what was suggested already by yesterday's wide-ranging pliability, that the market isn't committing itself to early trending. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2808.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2798.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Bullish setup rejected. Having trended down into yesterday's close, gapping up above yesterday afternoon's high could have formed a "session-long rally" setup. Or, having extended so high as to also test yesterday's actual high, their recovery through the open could have triggered the setup. Despite rallying ~5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} overnight up to 2879.00, the open was greeted back down at yesterday's 2836.50 actual high. And its blip-up to 2846.00 resolved down sharply to attack 2803.00. Session-long rally not triggered. But not only did the session-long rally fail to trigger, it could have triggered. A relevant level was tested, but it held through a relevant timing window. The setup can now be as bearish as it could have been bullish. The post-open dip narrowly avoided rejecting the 2798.50 bias-up target, too. Its recovery through 10:15 up to 2842.00 has triggered a renewed bias-up. A reaction down this morning has room to the 2771.00 bias-up signal as support, and then lower after the bias window is lapsing. Back above 2838.00 would suggest another upleg underway instead.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2768.00 2764.00 ...would target 2790.00 2786.00 Bias-down: under 2739.00 2735.00 ...would target 2723.00 2719.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Overnight rally retraced entirely. At yesterday's close in the Market Wrap post I noted that yesterday's pliability meant that trending attempts were still likely while also being extremely likely to fail. We didn't have to wait much past the open for evidence. The overnight rally maxed itself out, recovering 184 points from the Globex open's 2695.25 dip up to 2879.00. It wasn't all retraced, just most of it down to 2728.50. The pliability persists, as a bounce to 2803.50 triggers the afternoon's renewed bias-up, and still reacts down 37 points. Failing to trigger the otherwise fully formed session-long rally setup told us the context would be as bearish as it could have been bullish. Its influence may have waned, but another upleg could emerge from this afternoon's bias environment. The prior Friday's "higher prior lows" being tested at the overnight high can't yet be dismissed from being tested intraday. It may difficult resuming the decline while awaiting specifics of the administration's alleged stimulus/tax/safety net. Retracing extremes within the existing range is meanwhile likelier.

Monday night's rally went 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit up at 2879.00. Its comfortable margin above the 2836.00 intraday high was retraced by the open, and not recovered. The fully formed "session-long rally" setup failed, becoming as bearish as it would have been bullish. The balance of the morning continued retracing the overnight rally, filling the gap back to Monday's 2736.00 close down to 2728.50. "Bouncing" to 2803.50 into the afternoon bias environment left that window in a 130-point upleg to 2885.00 through the close. All of the above paints a bullish picture, at least for the potential to extend higher next. The two prior Fridays' consolidations are rich with retracements and resistance, nothing abnormal for a corrective leg to revisit before resuming its prevailing trend. Monday night's 2878.00 high was also "higher prior lows" from the prior Friday afternoon. As I said in Tuesday's mid-day update, we can't dismiss the potential for its intraday retest, as well. If not held, then 2923.00-2926.00 could be the last obstacle to putting the 1987 analog back on-track with a bigger corrective bounce. Already reacting down into Wednesday's open could test the 2794.00 area and still try recovering again. Especially if the expected economic assistance is still dangling like a carrot in front of the market. But once that moves into the rear view mirror, reversals would be more credible for extending down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2897.00 2893.00 ...would target 2926.50 2922.50 Bias-down: under 2860.50 2857.50 ...would target 2846.00 2842.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.