VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:53 AM
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Previously : Sun night's gap up hovered through midnight around 3960-3971 until Europe's opens triggered a collapse attacking Fri's 3881 low. Biden's pre-open calming remarks triggered sharply lower lows to 3839 whose post-open retest reacted up to 3908. Extending higher into a blip-up at noon to 3940 then ranged sideways through the close, supported at 3888-3890.
Overnight price points : Mon afternoon's sideways range initially persisted overnight, albeit shallower than its 40-45 point width -- support is still at 3888-3890, but 3912 resistance is 61.8% back to yesterday's highs. Suddenly a surge has tested 3920, and retested it on negatively diverging RSIs...
Catalysts : Pi Day! CPI, BTC surge, SVB contagion, pre-PPI anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Weak-handed low.
Their influences : [Reference the accompanying chart.] Mon's opening range bottomed optimistically short of touching the very recent pre-open low, which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. Its resolution waited until the first 15 minutes had lapsed, suggesting its sponsorship is weak-handed. These characteristics make a rally likely to retrace its 3840 origin unless first recovering a relevant resistance to invalidate the lower attraction. That resistance is the 3920 upper-end of Fri afternoon's range, which has instead held multiple timing windows' tests as resistance -- and is being retested now by last-minute optimism. So, if not already being tested by the CPI headline's knee-jerk reaction, exiting Tue's first 15 minutes under 3920 would still be in the orbit of a 3840 retest.
Premise : Happy Pi Day! More important is whether this will be a happy cPi day. Anxiousness has continued to paralyze price action beyond yesterday afternoon and now also overnight. Regardless of its influence on the next rate hike decision, which is still somewhat fluid, an upside surprise will have a downside reaction. Probing yesterday's lows would help to seal a near-term low if the test were held through the morning, although that would also heighten focus on Wed's upcoming PPI possibly forcing the Fed's hand.
Alternative : A weaker CPI would likely rally, including this afternoon, welcoming PPI which would be assumed will also be pleasant.
Levels : UP: 3921, 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Stock Market Opening Trends - 11:01 AM
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Previously : Mon afternoon's sideways range initially persisted overnight, albeit shallower than its 40-45 point width -- support is still at 3888-3890, but 3912 resistance is 61.8% back to yesterday's highs. A late surge extended through 3920 despite negatively diverging RSIs.
New price points : Greeting CPI optimistically at the 3925 bias-up signal blipped-down 40 points to pierce overnight lows at 3885, then snapped back up to resume chipping away at 3925 resistance. The open was greeted at the 3943 bias-up target and the first 15 minutes exceeded overnight highs by 10 points. All of which is being exceeded to 3968.
Catalysts : CPI, BTC surge, SVB contagion, pre-PPI anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-UP.
Their influences : Next higher attractions are 3964 now being tested and 3977, then 3997 and 4012.
Triggers/Tactics : The pessimistic knee-jerk reaction to CPI offers a glimpse of a negative surprise from tomorrow's PPI, perhaps not isolated to a blip-down that instantly recovers, let alone extends higher. Today's catalyst was an upside surprise in Core-CPI, deserving a negative reaction, but ultimately behaving in-line with expectations for the Fed's hands to be tied. Meanwhile, the ultimately favorable reaction to CPI might ignore the normal pre-PPI anxiousness, and extend the rally this afternoon instead of hunkering down to posture defensively.
Alternative : Exiting the open above 3920-3940 relevant resistance levels has been rewarded, but has yet to gain traction or confirm, and remains confined to an uptrending channel. Back under the channel's lower-end that now coincides around 3954 would suggest at least a retest of the channel's 3936 origin.
Levels : UP: 3921, 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3974, targeting 3988.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3960, targeting 3948.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:51 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Shallower sideways ranging persisted overnight between 3888-3912 until a late surge greeted CPI optimistically at the 3925 bias-up signal. Its 40-point blip-down pierced overnight lows at 3885 and snapped back up to greet the open at the 3943 bias-up target. The first 15 minutes exceeded overnight highs by 10 points on the way through the first hour to 3968.
New price points : Extending relentlessly higher through the A.M. window finally peaked at 3972, testing the 38.2% gap proxy. Trending relentlessly lower through the noon hour got to 3922 at the 38.2% proxy gap.
Catalysts : CPI, BTC surge, SVB contagion, pre-PPI anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Proxy gap.
Their influences : Fibonacci projections and retracements of the spread between the open and the prior cash session close are often very influential.
Triggers/Tactics : So far, trending down has been a noon hour construct, turning down minutes before noon and bottoming minutes before the P.M. bias window. That's a lot of selling pressure to be isolated in a single window. This might allow the afternoon to firm ahead of tomorrow's PPI, instead of paralyzed hovering from anxiousness ahead of the report.
Alternative : The noon hour's drop retraced all of the 3920-3940 relevant resistance (now support) whose recovery through the open enabled the morning's rally. If not confirmed through the close, which ends under 3920 instead of above 3940, then that retest of yesterday's 3840 open can come into play.
Levels : UP: 3921, 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Day Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Shallower sideways ranging persisted overnight between 3888-3912 until a late surge greeted CPI optimistically at the 3925 bias-up signal. Its 40-point blip-down pierced overnight lows at 3885 and snapped back up to greet the open at the 3943 bias-up target. Exceeding overnight highs through the open extended relentlessly higher through the A.M. window to 3972, and its afternoon reversal fell t 3905 before recovering 3958 through the close.
Catalysts : CPI, BTC surge, SVB contagion, pre-PPI anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : No active setup.
Their influences : - .
Premise : These current outsized intraday ranges began when SVB started hitting the proverbial fan. But they persist today because expiration is fast-approaching, and knee jerk headline reactions can be exacerbated when they ambush expiration. The headline here isn't a surprise geopolitical event, but just as relevant -- it's the Fed's presumed reversal in its interest rate posture. Rates are a key component to valuing options, so the sudden paradigm shift has a dramatic last-minute effect on rollover strategies, which becomes a perpetual motion machine that often ends in an abrupt reversal.
Alternative : Exiting Tue's open back above 3922/3940 relevant resistance had triggered the morning's rally, and it was barely recovered through the close after detouring down to 3905. Perhaps the detour would have been avoided, if not for AAPL's headlines, and the US-Russia interaction ("Don't bring a drone to a MiG fight"). The late rally to 3958 suggests Wed's PPI is being greeted from a position of strength, but doesn't necessarily preclude an initially negative knee-jerk reaction that retests Mon's 3840 low.
Levels : UP: 3977, 3997, 4012... DOWN: 3922, 3863, 3828.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3964, targeting 3982.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3941, targeting 3928.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.